【作者】 卢紫珺；

【导师】 孙森；

【作者基本信息】 天津财经大学 ， 金融学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 20世纪80年代以来,西方国家纷纷放弃了以货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标的做法,转而投向利率或通货膨胀目标制进行宏观调控。但对于我国而言,在目前利率尚未完全市场化,货币供给量仍然具有较好的可测性、可控性和相关性的条件下,我国货币政策的中介目标仍应以广义货币供给量M2为主。而围绕着M2作为货币政策中介目标的适用性,我国学者进行了大量的研究,但多集中于对M2总量以及M2与相关经济变量的关系等领域,较少见到从M2的结构,即对M2内部各个组成部分的形成、转化以及影响因素视角进行的研究,而结构研究不仅有利于中央银行从M2的内部构成细化对货币供给量的控制,也有利于中央银行对货币供给结构变化的监控。因此,在我国当前还不能将货币政策中介目标定位于利率,还只能通过货币供给量调节经济运行时,提高对M2调控的精确度就显得尤为重要。而要达到这一目的,则首先必须分析清楚M2及其内部组成M1和准货币的形成路径,M2是否是银行信用创造的产物,在M2的形成过程中具体受到哪些因素的影响,对这些问题的深入分析无疑是保证货币政策有效性的重要前提。我们总是习惯用“流动性偏好”来说明M1与准货币之间的转化,但流动性偏好又是不可测的,仅以利率来说明也是不充分的,因此,要选择更为广泛的影响流动性偏好的因素,其目的,仍然是更好的实现对M1、M2的控制。本文首先对不同层次的货币供给理论进行系统梳理,在总结和评价现有理论研究思路的基础上,对货币供给的内涵展开进一步讨论,即货币供给不仅包括现实中的购买力,还包括潜在购买力以及流动性较强的金融资产,其变动与宏观经济变量之间具有较为密切的相关关系。不同国家经济发展背景不同,货币供给涵盖的内容也不同,同一国家在不同的发展阶段,被计入货币供给的范畴也略有差别。但是,随着金融创新的发展,大量可替代资产的不断涌现,对货币供给的认识应逐步深入,货币供给的内涵也会进一步扩大。随后,本文以二级银行体系下的货币供给机制为基础,基于M1、准货币形成及相互转化的视角对我国货币供给的形成路径进行系统的理论分析。从中央银行最初的基础货币供给,到商业银行派生存款的创造,指出,M1是商业银行信用创造的初始形态,其可以通过定期存款渠道、储蓄存款渠道以及资本市场渠道漏出形成准货币,进而M1与准货币的和,即广义货币供给M2是商业银行信用创造的货币总量。接下来,本文从M2的内部结构入手,基于M1、准货币形成及相互转化的视角,分别就影响M1和准货币各自形成路径的主要因素及其作用机制展开论述,利用VAR模型对相关变量产生的长短期效应进行定量分析,并在此基础上将影响M2形成路径的主要因素纳入VAR模型进行研究。结果表明,贷款规模、物价水平、替代资产收益率、金融深化等指标对我国M1、准货币的形成及相互转化有深远的影响,并进一步导致我国广义货币供给M2的变化。同时,本文还就M1、准货币的形成及相互转化对货币供给结构(M1/准货币)变化产生的影响进行了理论和实证研究,结果表明,受到经济增速、物价水平、资本市场收益率以及金融深化等变量的影响,我国的货币供给结构在短期内波动较为剧烈,在长期内则表现出明显的下降趋势。最后,在上述理论和实证分析的基础上,本文就如何更好地实现对中央银行对货币供给量的控制,进一步发挥以货币供给量作为货币政策中介目标调控体系的作用提出了相关的政策建议。主要包括综合运用多种手段对贷款规模进行调控,注重资产价格因素在货币供给总量和结构变化中所起的作用以及将货币供给结构作为可参考的货币政策中介目标之一,逐步建立总量调节与结构调控相结合的货币供给量中介目标调控体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Sine the1980s, most western countries have abandoned the money supply as the intermediary target of monetary policy, turned to interest rate or inflation to adjust the economy. However, in china, we don not have the condition to make this transformation, the monetary policy intermediary goal of china still give priority to M2.Therefore, there is a lot of research on the total M2and the relationship between the M2and economic variables, but less seen form the structure of the M2, namely the M2internal composition research perspective. And the structure study is not only beneficial to the central bank from aspects of the internal components of the M2to control over the total money supply, can also be conducive to the central bank to monitor the structural change in the money supply. At this moment, we cannot make the interest rate as the intermediary target of monetary policy, the only way to adjust economy is through money supply. It is particularly important to adjust the money supply accurately. In order to do so, we must first analysis the formation path of M2, M1and quasi currency clearly, weather M2is the product of credit creation or not, what factors affect the formation process of M2. We always use "liquidity preference" to illustrate the flow between M1and the quasi currency, but it is hard to measure the "liquidity preference", just though interest rate is inadequately. Therefore, we should choose a broader factor, which affect the liquidity preference to control M1and M2effectively.Based on the summary and evaluate the existing theoretical research, this paper put forward to a further discussion on the connotation of the money supply. Money supply includes not only the real purchasing power, but also potential purchasing power and liquid financial assets; it has a close relationship with the macroeconomic variables. Under different economic development background, different countries have different money supply covers. Even the same countries in different stages of development, the category of the money supply is also slightly different. However, with the development of financial innovation, the understanding of the money supply should gradually deep, the intension of the money supply will be widen.Then, based on the money supply mechanism under secondary banking system, this paper analysis the formation process of China’s money supply from the aspect of the foamation of Ml, Quasi-money, and the transformation between them. Then point out that Ml is the initial form of commercial bank credit creation, leakage of Ml form Quasi-money, M2is the monetary aggregates of commercial bank credit creation. From the structure of M2, based on the foamation of M1, Quasi-money and the transformation between them, this paper discuss the main factors and its mechanism affect the formation paths of M1and Quasi-money seperately. Using VAR model to analyze the short and long-term effects of relevant variables, and put the main factors that influence the formation path of M2into VAR model for further research. The results show that the scale of the loan, price levels, return on alternative assets and the financial deepening has a profound influence on the foamation of M1, Quasi-money and the transformation between them. Lead to changes in money supply M2. This paper also explains the impact of the foamation of M1, Quasi-money and the transformation between them on the conversion structure of money supply (M1/Quasi-money). Results show that the economy growth, price level, capital market development and financial deepening can influence the structure of money supply significantly, leading to the structure of money supply fluctuate sharply in the short-term, and decline obviously in the long-term.Finally,on the basis of the above analysis, this paper put forward some suggestions on how to control money supply effectively. Including use a variety of means to control the scale of loans, pay more attention to the role of asset price changes in the money supply, and make money supply structure as one of the intermediary target of monetary policy, set up the regulation system of money supply intermediary target wcich combined total regulation and structure control.更多还原