【作者】 王延伟；

【导师】 黄鲁成；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 随着经济全球化以及知识经济的到来，新兴产业发展面临的环境越来越具有不确定性和动态性。在这样的环境下，传统的制定产业战略的假设条件已经发生了改变，在这种情况下如何制定新兴产业发展战略，这是理论界和实务界共同关注的热点，也是一个很重要的研究难题。论文的完成依托科技部“国家软科学研究计划项目（重大）”——《研发全球化及我国研发产业发展战略研究》（2009GXS1B013）。论文的第一章提出了所要研究的问题——如何更有效地制定新兴产业战略。文章后面的内容用动态性的思维和动态性的方法来解决这个问题。解决问题的过程是论文的主体内容。论文的主体内容包括三个部分：第一部分是对解决如何制定新兴产业动态战略问题的理论进行分析。第二部分是构建制定新兴产业动态战略的方法模型。第三部分是利用构建的制定新兴产业动态战略的方法模型制定研发产业动态战略。论文主体的第一部分是解决制定新兴产业动态战略问题的理论分析，包括两个方面：分别是第二章新兴产业内涵及发展规律分析，第三章新兴产业动态战略理论。在第二章，论文对新兴产业的内涵、特点、发展规律进行深入探讨。总结出新兴产业的“新”和“兴”两个内涵特征；不确定性、高成长性和人力资源密集性等新兴产业的共性特点；还总结了新兴产业成长过程中具有的动态性、区域性和幼小性发展特征。并把新兴产业与基础产业、战略性新兴产业、主导产业、支柱产业等相关产业进行了对比分析，并绘制了新兴产业与其他产业的关系及发展规律图。第三章在分析动态战略内涵、新兴产业动态战略内涵以及动态战略与传统战略关系的基础之上，提出新兴产业动态战略制定的指导思想和原则，并论证了新兴产业动态战略制定的必要性和可行性。文章还介绍了两种适合进行动态战略制定的动态性方法（技术未来分析方法）——情景分析法和技术路线图法。论文主体的第二部分即第四章是文章的核心章节，该部分构建了一个新兴产业动态战略制定程序。其中设计了一个新兴产业动态战略管理流程和新兴产业动态战略制定流程。这两个流程是根据前面理论分析的基础上设计出来的。新兴产业动态战略制定流程又是核心章节中的核心。该流程包括两个主要方面：新兴产业现状分析和新兴产业动态战略确定。新兴产业现状分析主要包括产业资源分析、产业背景分析、产业地位分析和SWOT分析。新兴产业动态战略确定包括三个步骤，分别是用改进的灰色关联聚类法进行新兴产业影响因素分析、情景分析法确定新兴产业动态战略目标，技术路线图法确定战略步骤和战略举措。制定出来的战略需要根据未来情景的匹配情况进行选择实施，并在实施过程中不断进行修正。论文主体的第三部分是提出的动态战略制定方法的实证，利用新兴产业动态战略制定方法模型制定研发产业动态战略。实证部分又分成两部分，一是研发产业现状分析，包括研发活动的基本状况，研发产业的规模分析和研发产业的SWOT分析，这部分内容是研发产业动态战略制定的基础分析。二是研发产业动态战略制定与实施。这部分内容包括了四个方面：（1）研发产业的影响因素分析，通过文献梳理初选，选出18个影响研发产业发展的因素，利用改进的灰色关联聚类方法对这18个因素进行筛选、排序和归类。最终识别出16个研发产业主要影响因素；（2）确定研发产业动态战略目标，对前面分析出来的16个因素进行重要性和不确定性联合分析，最终选出三类9个重要性和不确定性都较高的影响因素，利用这三类因素构建8个研发产业未来情景，根据一致性原则选出三个情景，根据前面分析的研发产业现状分析情况，确定这三个情景下的研发产业发展目标；（3）确定研发产业动态战略举措和步骤，利用产业技术路线图法确定实现每个研发产业未来情景下战略目标的战略举措和战略步骤；（4）提出研发产业动态战略实施的保障措施，以保证研发动态战略的实施和战略目标的实现。新兴产业动态战略管理和制定流程是用动态性的思维和动态性的方法设计出来的，新兴产业动态战略制定流程的各个步骤可以分成不同的模块单独使用，也可以放到一起综合运用。新兴产业动态战略制定模型不仅丰富了新兴产业理论和战略管理理论，同时该模型具有很强的创新性和可操作性，可以说具有很强的理论意义和应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the advent of the economic globalization and the knowledge economy, theeconomy environment that the new industry faced is becoming increasinglyuncertainty and dynamic. In this environment, the traditional assumptions of theformulation of industrial strategy have changed. Based on that, how to formulate theemerging industry development strategy becomes an important issue. This is afocusing issue of academia and the practice community. This is also a very importantand hard research problem. Thesis completion is relying on the Ministry of Scienceand Technology the “national soft science research project (major)”-the R&Dglobalization and China R&D industry development strategy research "(2009GXS1B013).In chapter1, how to formulate the emerging industry development strategyefficiently was.raised. The content after chapter1presents the process how to slovethe problem by dynamic thinking and methods. This is also the body of thedissertation. There are three sections in this part. The first section is the theoreticalanalysis how to make dynamic strategy for emerging industries. The second sectionis to construct an emerging industry dynamic strategy formulation method model.The third section is to use the emerging industry dynamic strategy formulationmethod model to formulate the dynamic strategy of R&D industry.The first part of the body in this dissertation is the theoretical analysis. Thereare two aspects of theory analysis to solve the emerging industry dynamic strategyformulation. One is emerging industry connotation and the law of developmentanalysis in chapter2. The other one is theoretical analysis of the dynamic strategy.Emerging industry’s connotation, property and development law are analyzedin-depth. The thesis summarizes the two connotation features of emerging industrythat is "New" and "Booming". There are three nature common features of emergingindustry that are “uncertainty”,“High growth” and “human resource-intensive”. Italso summarizes the characteristics of emerging industry development that are“Dynamic”,“Regional”, and “immature”. Furthermore, the paper also analyzes therelationship between the emerging industries and related industries. They are basicindustry, strategic emerging industry, leading industry and.pillar industry. The paperdraws a diagram to express the development law and the relationship betweenemerging industry&other industries. In chapter3, the guiding ideology and principle was gived based on the analysisof dynamic strategic connotation, dynamic strategic connotation of emergingindustry and the relationship between dynamic strategy&traditional strategy.Necessity and feasibility of dynamic strategy formulation for emerging industry wasdemonstrated in this paper. Two methods that suit for dynamic strategy formulationwere introduced in this section they are scenario analysis and technolgy roadmap.The second part of the body is chapter4. This chapter is the core chapter of thepaper. In this chapter, a new emerging industry dynamic strategy formulation processis built. It is includes a dynamic strategic management circuit and a dynamic strategyformulation circuit. The two circuits are designed according to theoretical analysisbefore. The dynamic strategy formulation circuit includes two major parts: thesituation analysis and dynamic strategy formulation of emerging industries. Situationanalysis of emerging industry mainly includes industry resources analysis,background analysis, industry status analysis and SWOT analysis. Dynamic strategyformulation of emerging industry includes three steps. They are emerging industryinfluence factors analysis by approved gray correlation&clustering method,dynamic strategic goals determination by scenario analysis methods, and dynamicstrategic steps and measures determination by industry technical roadmap method.The strategy makers should choose the strategy style according the future scenario,and should constantly revise in the implementation process.The third part of the body in the paper is empirical analysis.The empirical partis divided into two parts. The first part is the R&D industry situation analysis,including the basic situation of the R&D activities, the scale analysis of the R&Dindustry and SWOT analysis of R&D industry. This part is the basis analysis ofR&D industry dynamic strategy formulation. The second part is the R&D industrydynamic strategy formulation and implementation. This section includes four aspects.(1) The R&D industry influencing factors analysis. Firstly,18factors affecting thedevelopment of the R&D industry are elected by literature analysis. Then screening,ranking and classifying the18factors by improved gray correlation clusteringmethod. Finally,16main affected factors of R&D industry are recognized.(2)Formation dynamic strategy goal of R&D industry. Firstly, joint analyzing of theimportances and uncertainties for the16factors, then selecting nine impact factorsthat are both highly important and uncertain belong to three classifications.Secondly，constructing of8scenarios of R&D industry future with the three classifications, then electing three scenarios based on consistent the principle. Lastly,dynamic strategy goal of each future R&D industry scenarios is formatted accordingto the previous analysis of R&D industry status.(3) Formation dynamic strategysteps&measures of R&D industry. Dynamic strategy steps&measures of eachR&D industry’s future scenario are formated by industry technology roadmapmethod.(4) In order to ensure the implementation&completion of dynamic strategyfor R&D industry, some security measures are given in this paper.The dynamic strategy formulation circuit and management circuit are designedby dynamic ideology and dynamic method. The dynamic strategy formulation circuitcan be divided into different modules. Each module can be used alone, and can beused together. Emerging industry dynamic strategy formulation circuit can not onlyenrich the theory of emerging industries and strategic management, but also there isstrong operability of the model. It can be said that there are strong theoreticalsignificance and application value.更多还原