【作者】 郭秀颖；

【导师】 惠晓峰；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 2009年9月，我国首次提出“战略性新兴产业”概念，并且把可持续发展作为战略发展方向，战略性新兴产业的兴起为我国实施“弯道超越”带来重大契机。目前我国将节能环保、新一代信息技术、生物、高端装备制造、新能源、新材料、新能源汽车等七大领域作为重点发展的战略性新兴产业，并且已经取得了一定的成效。但还存在以下三个方面的突出矛盾，严重制约了战略性新兴产业的可持续发展：一是区域布局同一性矛盾，引起无序竞争，抑制产业可持续发展；二是生态效率与经济效率非均衡发展矛盾，以环境换经济，破坏环境可持续发展；三是技术创新能力与商业转化能力不协调矛盾，技术的商业转化能力低，削弱经济、社会可持续发展。剖析这些矛盾产生的原因与当前战略性新兴产业区域前向选择缺失以及对战略性新兴产业整体评价的片面性有关，因此本文将针对影响战略性新兴产业可持续发展的这三个突出矛盾，在可持续发展理论的指导下寻求战略性新兴产业区域选择与均衡发展评价的新路径。通过研究发现，现有的战略性新兴产业选择多借鉴主导产业评价方法，实质上是对已建设的战略性新兴产业的后向评价，缺少依据区域内部产业结构关联性和区域间比较优势的前向原始选择研究，这种缺失区域产业基础的选择，必将影响其后续可持续性发展，也无法从根本上解决各区域战略性新兴产业选择的盲从性和同一性。因此，本文将基于可持续发展原理，着重研究区域战略性新兴产业确立初期的前向选择方法。鉴于区域产业系统的复杂关联性，本文将借助复杂网络理论和投入-产出理论，通过改进的决策试验与评价实验室法，初步选择拟建设的战略性新兴产业，使所选择的战略性新兴产业具有区域内深厚的产业基础，确保其可持续发展的产业根基。此外，本文基于区域间产业发展不平衡理论，以产业集聚性等反映产业发展优势的指标作为评价指标，对拟建设的战略性新兴产业进行区域间比较分析，整体择优选择战略性新兴产业，避免低水平重复建设，确保资源使用的可持续性，从而实现“区域内-区域间”战略性新兴产业双向选择，确保其可持续发展的产业基础优势。在此基础上本文以黑龙江省为例，进行战略性新兴产业选择的实证分析，研究发现此选择方法具有实际应用价值，所选择战略性新兴产业在后期发展中各项经济指标均排在前列。可持续发展主要包括生态可持续、经济可持续和社会可持续三方面的内容，而目前我国战略性新兴产业发展存在的矛盾，恰恰制约了其可持续性发展，因此我们需要对我国战略性新兴产业发展的可持续性进行动态评价。对于战略性新兴产业生态可持续性评价，本文将生态系统理论引入战略性新兴产业领域，提出了战略性新兴产业生态效率评价方法。通过对Tone(2001)松弛变量的数据包络分析模型（SBM模型）进行改进，建立了含有不可分离变量-双限额约束的战略性新兴产业生态效率评价模型。同时本文选择具有生态效率评价代表性的新能源产业进行研究，利用该评价模型对我国2002-2013年光伏电池产业进行生态效率评价，研究发现光伏电池产业生态效率值在某一范围内随着CO2减排率的增加而增大，随着产能约束的增加而减少，其中以技术创新能力带动CO2减排率的增加可以有效促进生态效率值的提升，而国内光伏装机容量的提升可以有效减缓相对产能过剩，对其生态效率值提升的效果明显。对于战略性新兴产业经济与社会可持续性评价，则主要解决战略性新兴产业重技术创新轻商业模式创新的评价问题，其中商业模式创新是实现技术创新商业转化的有效途径，也是战略性新兴产业经济与社会可持续发展的重要保障。本文基于云理论提出了战略性新兴产业商业模式创新能力度量的方法，突出对其新技术和新产品的商业转化能力评价。通过构建CRITIC-双向综合云重心评价模型，有效地解决了战略性新兴产业商业模式创新评价中定性与定量指标间转化的困难。此外本文还对CRITIC权重评价模型进行改进，以权重变异系数vi代替标准差sj，规避指标的绝对影响；以Rij替代公式中的Rij，突出指标相关程度判断，使得模型改进后计算的指标权重更符合客观实际。本文借助该评价模型对我国生物制药业和航空航天装备制造产业的商业模式创新能力进行实证评价，得出两个产业商业模式创新能力均为较差的结论。在此基础上，逆向探求发现影响生物制药业的因素为新产品创新和产业转化政策支持薄弱，而影响航空航天装备制造产业则是新产品经济效益指标，需要重点加强建设，才能有效提升商业模式创新能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 In September2009， our country for the first time put forward the concept of "strategic emerging industries"， and took the sustainable development as a strategic direction and the rise of strategic emerging industries brought about a major opportunity for China to implement “surpass on curves”. At present， the seven big focuses on the development of strategic emerging industries such as China’s new energy， new materials and so on have made certain achievements. But there are also the following outstanding contradictions in three aspects， which have seriously restricted the sustainable development of strategic emerging industries: one is the contradiction of the identity of regional distribution， which has caused disorderly competition， and restrained the industrial sustainable development; Secondly， the contradiction of the unbalanced development of the ecological efficiency and economic efficiency has changed the environment as the economy and thus has destroyed the environment sustainable development; Thirdly， the uncoordinated contradiction of the technology innovation ability and business transformation ability， the technology business transformation ability is low， which has weakened the economy sustainable development. To analyze the causes of these problems we find it is related to the current lack of strategic emerging industries and the prior area to choice and the one-sided evaluation. So this article will combine the three development contradictions under the guidance of the theory of sustainable development in order to seek new paths of the selection and evaluation of regional strategic area choice and evaluation.First of all， according to the serious choice convergence of the regional strategic emerging industry， through the study we have found that the selection method in existing strategic emerging industries selection method more leading industries， as well as the evaluation method for reference is essentially for the construction of strategic emerging industries to evaluation， lack of internal connections and regional industrial structure on the basis of regional comparative advantages of the early original choice research， can not fundamentally solve the regional strategic emerging industries to choose blind and identity.First of all， according to the serious choice convergence of the regional strategic emerging industry， through the study we have found that the selection method in existing strategic emerging industries selection method more leading industries， as well as the evaluation method for reference is essentially for the construction of strategic emerging industries to evaluation， lack of internal connections and regional industrial structure on the basis of regional comparative advantages of the early original choice research， can not fundamentally solve the regional strategic emerging industries to choose blind and identity. Therefore， this article will focus on the study area at the early stage of the strategic emerging industries to establish selection method. In view of the complex relevance of regional industry system， this paper will use a complex network theory and input-output theory， through improved decision making trial and evaluation laboratory method， the preliminary selection of the construction of the proposed strategic emerging industries， we make the choice of strategic emerging industries with regional industry foundation to ensure the sustainable development of industry. At the same time， based on the theory of unbalanced development of regional industry， such as industrial accumulation reflected advantage index as evaluation index of industrial development， to be in the construction of regional comparison on strategic emerging industries， the overall optimal choice of strategic emerging industries， to avoid low level repeated construction， and ensure the sustainability of resource use. On this basis this article will take Heilongjiang Province as an example to make research on the empirical study of the choice of strategic emerging industries.Secondly， in view of the present situation of the evaluation in strategic emerging industries which is stressed on economic rather than ecological research， in order to ensure the ecological sustainable development of the strategic emerging industries， this paper will introduce the theory of ecological system into the strategic emerging industries， and put forward the strategic emerging industries ecological efficiency evaluation method. Through the improvement of Tone (2001) the slack variable data envelopment analysis model (SBM) model， we establish integral variables contain strategic emerging industries-double limit constraint ecological efficiency evaluation model， and use the model to the photovoltaic industry from2002to2013in China ecological efficiency evaluation in the study we found that a photovoltaic cell industry ecological efficiency value in a certain range increased with the increase of reduction rate increases， with the increase of capacity constraints， including technological innovation ability to stimulate the increase of reduction rate that can effectively promote the ecological efficiency value of ascension， and the domestic photovoltaic power capacity of ascension can effectively reduce relative excess production capacity， the ecological efficiency value effect is obvious.Again， in view of the present situation of the study in strategic emerging industries which is stressed on technological innovation rather than business model innovation in evaluation， in order to ensure the sustainable development of strategic emerging industries， this article is based on cloud theory and puts forward the strategic emerging industry business model innovation ability measurement methods， highlight the new technology and business transformation ability evaluation of new products.Through building the appraisal model of CRITIC-two-way integrated cloud center of gravity， it can effectively solve the strategic emerging industry business model innovation transformation between qualitative and quantitative indicators in the assessment of the difficulties. In addition， this paper also improves the CRITIC weight evaluation model， the weight coefficient of variation in lieu of standard deviation to avoid index absolute influence; to replace in the formula， highlight indicators related to degree of judgment， so that after the improved model to calculate the index weight of more accord will be more fit for the actual reality. In this paper， with the help of the evaluation model of biological pharmaceutical industry and aerospace equipment manufacturing industry in China we can carry demonstration appraisal business model innovation ability. Finally， based on the theory of sustainable development， strategic emerging industries system evaluation theory model is set up， so this paper has put forward policy suggestions on the selection and evaluation of regional strategic emerging industry in China.更多还原