【作者】 郭娟；

【导师】 刘辉煌；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 应用经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 随着经济全球化进程的加速推进，对外直接投资（ODI）渠道成为跨国企业融入全球一体化的重要途径。中国作为全球最大的新兴经济体，其作为外来投资东道国的身份引起了全世界的关注。发展趋势相当可观。中国开始逐步由吸引外资的大国转向对外投资的母国。中国企业虽然在多年外商投资中获益，但企业间竞争逐渐加剧，利润缩减，而核心技术仍然不在国内企业手中，已经开始制约我国企业的长期发展和产业结构优化的调整。我国目前在先进技术方面与发达国家和地区还存在明显差距，发展赶超型经济必然要求缩短与发达国家和地区的技术差距，技术寻求型对外直接投资是打破产业发展的技术瓶颈约束，汲取国外最新技术、获得反向技术外溢的有效实现途径。在日渐开放的经济体系中，中国如何通过技术寻求型对外直接投资提升国内技术创新能力并且促进国内技术进步具有重大的战略意义和实践参考价值。在全球一体化进程加速的背景下，跨国公司投资主体出现了新特征，无技术优势企业对外投资模式开始显现。在此现实背景下，本文分析研究了此类对外投资对我国走出去战略实施的重要意义。首先回顾并评述了对外直接投资，尤其是技术寻求型的相关文献。接下来着重分析技术寻求型对外投资的发展轨迹。通过测算发展中经济体ODI流出量占全球ODI流出量的比例，证实了发展中经济体对外直接投资作用的不断加强，而中国作为ODI的新兴源泉，也显示出了较强的活力。进一步，从技术寻求在中国ODI中的区位分布、行业结构、进入模式等角度分析中国技术寻求型ODI的特征，为研究我国的技术寻求型对外投资的现实背景提供了基础。在此基础上，本文从理论上剖析我国技术寻求型对外投资的机制。论文立足于“两国两寡头FDI”的博弈论，构建无技术企业对外投资的博弈策略理论模型，论证四种情境下所采取的对外投资战略的不同均衡结果，探询开放经济条件下技术寻求型对外投资的技术溢出机制与效果。从理论角度论证了发展中国家技术寻求型对外投资的可行性，并指出发展中国家要进行技术寻求，需要以较高的外部技术溢出和内部技术溢出效率为基础，同时衡量国外市场的大小。市场越大，内外技术溢出越大，技术寻求的动机就越大。在双向投资成为纳什均衡时，无技术优势企业应特别关注其企业内部的技术溢出，防止国内、国际市场同时收缩。根据理论分析的结果本文进行了实证检验，使用1985-2010年间的中国对外直接投资数据，测算了以技术寻求型ODI为渠道的国际研发溢出，以此对反向技术溢出效果进行考察。考虑了我国的经济结构发生显著变化的时期，模型主要运用状态空间和卡尔曼滤波法分析了中国技术寻求型ODI对国内技术进步的驱动能力，以测度对外直接投资对中国技术进步的动态影响。并加入与东道国的技术差距GAP，测度对外直接投资对中国技术进步的动态影响，更进一步在重点时间区间（2003年后对外直接投资存量急速增长）上细致地检验对外直接投资是否获取了理论上的反向技术外溢，带动了国内技术升级。研究结果表明，在中国进行对外直接投资的二十多年里，显现出一定的反向技术溢出效应；但是，其对国内技术进步的驱动作用还比较微弱；且技术差距同反向技术溢出效应之间的关系并不稳定。本文的实践意义还体现在对我国产业结构升级的指导上。中国利用反向技术外溢效应向较高技术水平和产业水平的国家和地区进行投资，以期带动国内产业调整与优化。本文从国家、产业、企业三个角度分析国际技术外溢促进我国产业结构升级的作用机制。进一步地，从产业层面和行业层面对我国技术寻求型对外直接投资对国内产业结构及发展状况的影响进行了实证分析。研究结果表明，技术寻求型ODI与产业结构的合理化无明显相关性，与产业结构的高级化有较强的相关性。最后在以上的理论框架和实证结果的基础上，就我国开展技术寻求型对外投资提出一些相关的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the acceleration of economic globalization, outward foreign directinvestment (ODI) becomes an important way for multinational enterprises (MNEs) totake part in the global economic integration. As the world’s largest emerging economy,China has aroused worldwide attention for its new identity as the main foreigninvestor. China has been one of the largest destinations of foreign investment, andgradually become an increasingly important source of investment outflow into theworld. Although benefited from years of foreign investment, Chinese enterprises arenow facing increasingly fierce competition and lower profits. What is worse, thelong-term development and industrial structure adjustment of Chinese enterprises arerestricted by the lack of core technology. When it comes to advanced technology,companies in China still have a significant gap with those in developed countries. Tocatch up with the developed countries inquires the developing countries to narrowdown the technology gap. And the technology-seeking ODI is an effective way tobreak the technical bottleneck of industrial development constraints, learn advancedtechniques, and get reverse technology spillover. As the global economy becomesincreasingly open, it is of great strategic significance and practical value to explorethe way of enhancing domestic technological innovation capability and promotingdomestic technological progress through technology-seeking ODI.As the process of global economic integration is accelerating, the main body ofMNEs embodies new features and demonstrates an ODI pattern led by companies withno technical advantages. Under such circumstances, this paper analyzes the influencesof such ODI on China’s Go Out policy. First, by reviewing the literatures concerningforeign direct investment, especially those related to technology-seeking ODI. Next,we study the developmental trajectories of technology-seeking foreign investment. Bymeasuring the proportion of ODI outflow of developing countries to that of the world,we prove that ODI plays a more and more active role in developing economies. China,as an emerging source of ODI, also shows strong vitality. Furthermore, thecharacteristics of technology-seeking ODI can be analyzed from the perspectives ofgeographical distribution, industry structure, entry mode etc., which provide a basisfor the research of the technology-seeking ODI in China.On this basis, the article provides a theoretical analysis on the mechanism of technology-seeking foreign investment. Based on “Bilateral duopoly ODI model” ingame theory, builds a game strategy model of non-technology enterprises to investoverseas, which demonstrates the different equilibrium outcomes resulted fromdifferent foreign investment strategies under four different conditions and exploresthe technology spillover mechanism of technology-seeking ODI and its effects. Thegame model proves the feasibility of technology-seeking ODI in developing countries.It points out that developing countries, when seeking technology, should take greatnotice of the external and internal technology spillovers and consider the size of thedomestic and international market at the same time. The motivation oftechnology-seeking becomes greater when the market is bigger and the internal andexternal technology spillovers higher. When the two-way investment reaches a NashEquilibrium, companies without technical superiority should pay special attention totheir internal technology spillover to prevent the domestic and international marketcontraction simultaneously. The paper conducts an empirical test based on theoreticalanalysis to explore the reverse technology spillover effect by estimating theinternational R&D overflow of technology-seeking ODI according to China’s ODIdata1985-2010. Considering the period when China experienced significant change,the model mainly uses state space and Kalman filtering method to analyze the drivingabilities of domestic technology advancement for China’s technology-seeking ODIand measure the dynamic effects of foreign direct investment on China’s technologyprogress. By adding the technological gap “GAP” of host state to the model, we couldaccurately measure the dynamic effects of ODI on China’s technology progress and domore detailed test on whether ODI have acquired the theoretical reverse technologyspillover and upgraded the domestic technology in key time interval (the stock offoreign direct investment get a rapid growth after2003). The results show that acertain reverse technology spillover effect appears in China’s ODI during the past twodecades, however, its driving ability is still relatively weak; and the relationshipbetween the technology gap and the reverse technology spillover effect is not stable.This paper also contributes to China’s industrial structure upgrading practice.China, with the help of the reverse technology spillover effect, invests in countriesand regions with higher technological and industrial level. Such investment isexpected to promote the adjustment and optimization of industries in China. Thepaper analyzes the mechanism of how foreign technological spillovers promote thestructure upgrading of China’s industries at three different levels, namely, the country,the industry, and the enterprise. Then, we do an empirical analysis at the industrial level to find the influence of technology-seeking ODI on the domestic industrialrestructure and development. The results show that technology-seeking ODI has nosignificant correlation with the rationalization of industrial structure, but is closelyrelated to the optimization of the industrial structure. Finally, this paper summarizesthe policy implications on the basis of the above theoretical framework and empiricalresults, and puts forward some relevant policy recommendations on how to carry outtechnology-seeking foreign investment in China.更多还原