【作者】 张存厚；

【导师】 王明玖；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古农业大学 ， 草业科学， 2013， 博士

【副题名】A Simulation Based on CENTURY Model

【摘要】 全球变化研究已经成为迄今为止规模最大的跨学科、跨部门、跨国界的国际合作研究活动，代表着当前世界科学的发展趋势，与人类关系最密切的陆地生态系统与气候变化的相互作用与反馈成为研究的热点。内蒙古草原处于欧亚大陆草原带的中部，由于其特殊的地理位置、多样化的气候条件和复杂的自然环境，在研究全球变化过程中具有不可替代的作用。作为陆地生态系统重要组成部分的植被地上净初级生产力（Aboveground Net Primary Productivity，简称ANPP）的动态，决定着生态环境的优劣和生态系统的碳收支，直接影响到草地畜牧业的兴衰。在全球气候变化背景下，ANPP时空动态变化及未来发展趋势，成为本论文研究的重点。利用1961～2010年106个自动气象观测站资料，对内蒙古过去50a气候的时空变化特征进行了详细分析；利用39个牧草观测站资料和10a卫星遥感数据，对CENTURY模型的模拟能力进行点和面上的检验；利用78个自动气象站数据对内蒙古草原区ANPP的时空动态进行了模拟，并与26个气象因子进行相关分析；基于SRESB2、A2和A1B情景的结果，模拟了未来内蒙古草原ANPP时空分布格局、变化速率以及可能变化趋势。主要发现如下：1．过去50a来，内蒙古年平均气温、生长季平均气温、年极端最高气温和年极端最低气温均呈上升趋势，其上升速率分别为0.39，0.33，0.24和0.54℃/10a。增温最显著的区域主要发生在东北部。平均年降水量和生长季降水量变化趋势不显著；年平均日照时数呈明显的下降趋势，下降速率为14.6h/10a；平均风速明显减小，减小速率达0.2m/s·10a；相对湿度明显减小，年最大积雪深度明显增加。2．过去50a中，内蒙古草原ANPP总体变化呈略增态势。其中，典型草原略增，增加速率为1.04g/m~2·10a；草甸草原增加趋势不显著，速率为0.41g/m~2·10a；荒漠草原增加趋势显著，速率为2.57g/m~2·10a。CENTURY模型验证结果显示，大多数站点模拟效果很好；内蒙古草原ANPP空间模拟结果与归一化植被指数（NDVI，下同）的空间分布吻合程度很高。ANPP的空间分布呈现出明显的地带性分布规律，即自东向西、自南向北逐渐降低。相关分析表明，内蒙古草原ANPP与降水量相关性显著，特别是生长季降水量。其中，锡林浩特ANPP与极端最高气温、平均气温和平均最高气温呈极显著负相关，四子王旗与极端最高气温呈极显著负相关，额尔古纳右旗则与平均最低气温、平均地面气温、平均气温呈显著正相关，与年平均风速呈极显著负相关。3．在3种SRES情景下，2030s内蒙古草原ANPP的空间分布格局依然是自东向西、自南向北逐渐降低。与基准年相比，2030s内蒙古草原大部地区ANPP高于基准年。变化速率的空间分布显示，近100a来内蒙古草原大部地区呈现出增加趋势。2030s内蒙古草原ANPP大于251g/m~2的高值区在SRES A2情景下分布面积最大，其次是SRES A1B，SRES B2最小；小于150g/m~2低值区在SRES B2情景下最大，其次是SRES A2，SRES A1B最小。更多还原

【Abstract】 Global climate change research has become the largest inter-disciplinary,trans-department, cross-border research activities in international cooperation filed,which represents the development trend of world science, the interactions and feedbackof climate change and terrestrial ecosystems that most closely with human being havebeen known as a hot issue. Inner Mongolia grassland which located in the mid-Eurasiancontinent steppe zone, plays an important role in the study of global change processes forits special geographical location, variables in climatic conditions and the complex naturalenvironment. As an important parts of the terrestrial ecosystem, Aboveground NetPrimary Productivity (ANPP) dynamic determines the environment quality and thecarbon balance of the terrestrial ecosystem, has a direct effect on the grassland animalhusbandry. This paper focused on the spatial and temporal dynamic changes and futuretrends of theANPP under the current situation of global climate change.We has analyzed the spatial and temporal climate variation of Inner Mongoliagrassland by using106automatic weather stations data from1961to2010, evaluated thesimulating ability of the CENTURY model in point and area by using the data collectedfrom39grassland monitored stations and10a satellite remote sensing data, simulated thespatial and temporal dynamic in ANPP by using the data collected from78automaticmeteorological stations in Inner Mongolia grassland, also analyzed the correlationsbetween ANPP and26meteorological factors. Finally, we are simulated the spatial andtemporal patterns, rate of change and the possible variation tendency of Inner Mongoliagrassland based on the SRES B2,A2and A1B scenarios. The results show as follows:1. In the past50years, the annual average air temperature, the average airtemperature of the growing season, the annual extreme maximum air temperature and theminimum air temperature showed an upward trend in Inner Mongolia grassland, with therate are0.39℃/10a,0.33℃/10a,0.24℃/10a and0.54℃/10a, respectively. The warmingmainly occurred in the Northeast of Inner Mongolia grassland. There are no significantchange trends in the annual average precipitation and precipitation during the growingseason; The annual average sunshine hours showed a significant downward trend withrate of14.6h/10a; The average wind speed was decreased obviously with rate of0.2m/s·10a; The relative humidity also showed a significantly decrease, while the annual maximum snow depth was significant increased.2. In the past50years, ANPP of Inner Mongolia grassland has an increase trend.ANPP in the typical steppe has a slight increase trend with the rate of1.04g/m~2·10a;ANPP in the meadow steppe has no a significant increase trend with the rate of just0.41g/m~2·10a；while ANPP in the desert steppe has a significant increase trend with therate of2.57g/m~2·10a. The validate results of CENTURY model showed that most ofsimulation effects were very well; The spatial simulation results of ANPP in InnerMongolia grassland showed a high agreement with NDVI. Spatial distribution of ANPPpresented the obviously zonal distribution, which was gradually dropped form east towest, form south to north.Correlation analysis indicated that the correlation between ANPP and the annualprecipitation was significant, especially with the precipitation during the growing season.Grassland ANPP of Xilinhot has a extremely significant negative correlation withextreme maximum air temperature, average air temperature and average maximum airtemperature. Grassland ANPP of Siziwang Banner has a extremely significant negativecorrelation with extreme maximum air temperature. Grassland ANPP of Eyou Banner hasa significant correlation with the mean minimum air temperature, averaged surface airtemperature and average air temperature, while it has a extremely significant negativecorrelation with the annual average wind speed.3. In three kinds of SRES scenarios, the spatial distribution patterns of ANPP werestill decreased gradually from south to north, from east to west in Inner Mongoliagrassland in2030s. Compared to the base year, the ANPP of most parts of InnerMongolia grassland in2030s is higher than the base year. The spatial distribution ofANPP change rate shows that ANPP will present the increasing trend in most parts ofInner Mongolia grassland in2030s, distribution area of ANPP with greater than251g/m~2is largest in SRES A2scenario, decreasing in SRES A1B scenario, while it is smallest inSRES B2. Distribution area of ANPP less than150g/m~2is largest in SRES B2scenario,decreasing in SRES A2scenario, while it is smallest in SRES A1B.更多还原