【作者】 王哲；

【导师】 尹豪；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 人口学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 陆地边境地区因其地理位置原因，处在国家之间的边境交界地带，发挥着独特的经济、政治和文化作用。中国的陆地边境线长达2.2万公里，边境地区与14个国家接壤，有30多个民族与国外同一民族相邻而居。其陆地边境地区总面积高达212万平方公里，约占全国总面积的22％。随着我国经济实力增强，国际政治地位提升，与国际间的文化交流日益频繁，陆地边境地区的开放窗口作用得到了凸显，因此，这一区域的深度与广度研究对于我国的对外经济、政治、文化发展意义重大。流动人口议题在中国特有的社会、经济、历史条件下产生，在推动中国经济高速发展、城市格局发生巨大变化的同时，也衍生出诸多的社会问题。流动人口群体既是中国经济的助推者，也是中国问题的实践者。界定陆地边境地区作为研究范围，其内部人口流动行为的产生及其影响有着特殊的地域性。立足于流出地的深入分析，可以突出陆地边境地区特殊的区位优势，且拥有不同于内陆地区的社会经济文化状况，从而分析其人口流出行为发生的影响因素。利用2011年三类地区（生态脆弱地区、陆地边境地区和少数民族地区）调查中陆地边境地区的动态监测数据，综合运用人口学、社会学、统计学、法学、地理学、宏观经济学、区域经济学等的相关理论对边境地区流动人口问题进行研究。本文的研究思路是从理论层面借鉴西方微观迁移理论，即对迁移动机和迁移决策进行分析，在成本和收益的框架下，探讨迁移的选择性和迁移后果，并进一步分析迁移选择性后果的人口学、社会经济学、文化等的特征。从实证研究层面，根据调查数据对陆地边境地区的流出人口现状从流出人口和家庭的特征、人口流出状况、流出地社会经济发展状况这三个方面进行逐一说明；接着利用SPSS统计软件从流出人口和家庭特征的角度出发，假设并验证哪些特征是影响人口流出的重要因素；最后对人口流出行为对流出地（整体）和留守家庭（组成单位）造成的影响进行分析，并从社会、经济、政治、文化等多个层面进行影响阐述。本文利用二分类Logistic回归得到的结果是：性别、年龄、婚姻状况、结婚时间、文化程度、户籍地、是否有外出经历和是否外地迁入共计8个自变量具有统计学上的意义，即对迁移选择性及其后果具有影响。本文由七章组成，根据内容间的逻辑关系可以分为三个部分：第一部分是本文的绪论和理论部分，涉及第一、二章的内容。绪论主要介绍本文的研究背景、目的和意义，研究思路，研究方法和数据来源，以及研究内容和创新之处；理论部分主要是对本文中使用的概念进行具体界定和说明，并对迁移流动的相关理论进行总结和阐述。同时，通过对国内外学者关于流动人口及陆地边境地区的研究成果进行小结和分析。第二部分是本文的核心部分，包括第三、四、五、六章的全部内容。第三章是关于陆地边境地区社会经济发展与人口变动概况的介绍，重点对陆地边境地区人口自然变动、迁移变动和社会变动状况进行了描述。第四章是关于陆地边境地区人口流出现状与特征，首先从历史角度介绍陆地边境地区人口流出状况，接着对其流出人口的规模和流向进行说明；其次对陆地边境地区流出人口群体和家庭的特征做了逐一描述和分析，在个人特征描述上主要从性别年龄构成、文化程度、现居住地等角度进行，在家庭特征描述上主要从家庭经济来源、家庭结构等层面进行说明。第五章是对陆地边境地区人口流出的影响因素进行分析。作为本文的核心章节，本章内容主要是通过研究假设并使用统计分析方法对影响人口流出的因素进行回归分析，验证假设，并对接下来的阐述作数据铺垫。第六章也是本文的重点章节，主要阐述陆地边境地区人口流出对流出地的影响。内容上从两个方面进行深入说明：一是对留守家庭的影响，即通过对留守家庭及留守群体的影响进行逐一分析，从而探讨解决问题的有效策略；二是对流出地社会经济发展的影响，即在对流出地社会生活现状的分析，发现流出地面临的实际问题，诸如土地闲置、基础设施建设不完善、人力资本结构恶化等，从而寻求适合当地实际情况的解决之道。第三部分是对本文写作的总结，包括第七章的全部的内容。主要是针对前面的现状和影响，提出陆地边境地区社会经济和人口可持续发展的对策建议。研究的创新之处体现于三个层面：一是研究范围的选择：陆地边境地区。陆地边境地区的人口流动具有其特殊性，本文利用调查中涉及到边境地区的相关数据，对不同陆地边境省区之间的差异性做有效区分，从而以地域差异引导各边境地区在经济社会发展中不同的定位与方向，实现特色化的发展道路。二是研究视角的选择：流出地视角。目前从流出地视角全面探讨人口流动及其影响的文献数量有限，因此本文试图从流出地视角深入研究，对作为流出地的陆地边境地区的人口流出现状进行分析，从社会、经济、政治等多个层面探讨人口流出对流出地造成的影响。三是分析模型的选择：引入TAM模型从理论层面分析农业科技接受度。这一模型以个人视角，结合其人口学特征，从而将二者有机联系在一起，从人口学角度解释了个人对科技的接受度。更多还原

【Abstract】 Because of its geographical reasons, the land border region in the area of theborder among nations plays a unique role of economic, political and cultural. China’sland border is22,000km length, the border areas border on14countries, over30nations live with the same nation in the adjoined counties. The total area of its landborder areas ups to2.12million square kilometers, accounting for about22%of thecountry’s total area. International political status enhanced as China’s economicstrength, and the international cultural exchange becomes more frequently. The roleof the land border areas opening as a window highlights, therefore, the depth andbreadth of the study in this region has a significant meaning to our foreign economy,politics and cultural development.Floating population issues uniquely occurred in the specific social, economic,and historical conditions of China. In the promotion of China’s rapid economicdevelopment, urban pattern changed dramatically, and many social problems derived.Floating population boosts Chinese economy but also practices Chinese problems.Defining the land border areas as the scope of the study, the emerging of populationfloating behavior and its impact within demonstrate its special regionalism. Based onthe deep analysis on the outflow area, the special local advantages of the land borderareas highlight, and have distinguished socio-economic and cultural conditions fromthe inland areas, hence to analyze the impact of population outflow behavior factors.Using2011dynamic monitoring data in the survey of the three types of areas ofthe land border areas (ecologically fragile areas, land border areas and ethnic minorityareas), integrated with demography, sociology, statistics, law, geography, macroeconomics, regional economics and other relative theories to study the floatingpopulation issues in border areas. This study idea borrows the Western populationmicroscopic theory of migration from the theoretical level---analyzing migrationmotives and migration decision, to explore the selectivity of migration and itsconsequences, in the framework of costs and benefits, further analyzed the science,socio-economic, cultural and other characteristics of the consequences of themigration selectivity. From the empirical research level, according to the survey dataof floating population status quo on the land border areas, explained one by one fromthe outflow of population and family characteristics, population outflow conditions,the socio-economic development situation of the outflow areas; then used SPSSstatistical software presuming and verifying which features are important factorsaffecting population outflow from the perspective of the outflow of population andfamily characteristics; at last, analyzed the impact of the outflow behavior on outflowareas (overall) and left-behind family (composed of units), and expounded from thevarious levels of social, economic, political, cultural etc.In this paper, the results obtained from the dichotomous data of Logistic.: gender,age, marital status, time of marriage, education level, residential place, and if there isa migration experience or whether migrated from other place in a total of eightindependent variables with statistical significance, that have an impact on migrationselectivity and its consequences.This article consists of seven chapters, can be divided into three parts based onthe logical relationship between the content.The first part is the introduction and theoretical part, involved in the first twochapters. The introduction presented the research background, the purpose andsignificance of research ideas, research methods and data sources, as well as theresearch contents and innovation; the theoretical part defines and describes theconcepts using in this article, summarized and elaborate the relevant theory of population movements. Meanwhile, the summarized and analyzed of the research onthe floating population and land border areas by domestic and foreign scholars.The second part is a core part of this article, including all content of the third,fourth, fifth and sixth chapters. The third chapter is introduced about thesocio-economic development and general demographic changes, focusing on naturaldemographic changes, migration changes and social change status on the land borderareas. Chapter4is about the status and the characteristics of population outflow, firstintroduced the population outflow status of the land boarder areas from the historicperspective, and then described the size and flow direction of the outflow population;followed by description and analysis on the characteristics of the outflow populationgroups and families, mainly on the description of the personal characteristics fromangles of gender, age, education level, residential places. The description of familycharacteristics is mainly on the source of family income, family structure and otherlevels. The fifth chapter is the analysis of the factors affecting the population outflowof land border areas. As the core chapter, this chapter is mainly through researchassumptions and statistical analysis to do regression analysis on the factors affectingpopulation outflow, verified the hypotheses and using the data as basis for furtherdescription. Chapter6is also a core chapter, mainly on the influence of populationoutflow behavior on the outflow areas. The content explained deeply from twoaspects: First, the impact on left-behind families, that is to explore an effectivestrategy by independently analyzing impacts on left-behind families and left-behindgroups; second is the impact on socio-economic development of the outflow areas,that in the analysis of the status of the social life of the outflow areas, practicalproblems appeared, such as land idle, the deficient infrastructure construction,deterioration of human capital structure which seek proper solution for the localactual situation.The third part is a summary of the whole writing including Chapter7. On one hand, concluded former writing conclusions and suggestions on land border areasdevelopment, on the other hand raised the flows of this writing, as well as the outlookfor the research in the field.Research innovations embodied at three levels: First, the selection of theresearch scope: the land border areas. Population mobility of the land border regionhas its particularity, in this paper by using the survey data related to the border region,effectively distinguish the differences among different land border areas, to guideeconomic and social development of border areas with geographical differences intodifferent positions and directions, then to achieve particular path of development. Theresearch perspective selection: the view of outflow areas. At present, literaturesdiscuss about the population mobility and its influences from the angle of the outflowarea are limited, therefore, this work seeks to research deeply from the perspective ofthe outflow areas, analyzes the present status of population mobility of the landboarder areas, discuss about the impact of the population outflow on outflow areasfrom social, economic, political and other levels. The third is the selection of theanalytical model: introducing the TAM model from the theoretical level to analyzethe degree of acceptance on agricultural technology. This model using a perspectiveof individuality, combined with its demographic characteristics, and thus bothorganically linked, from a demographic point of view to explain the personalacceptance of the technology.更多还原