浙江省城镇居民地区收入不平等统计研究

【作者】 陈娟；

【导师】 孙敬水；

【作者基本信息】 浙江工商大学 ， 统计学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,随着国民经济的快速增长,居民收入不平等状况开始显现,不同阶层、不同地区间居民收入不平等的持续扩大,已经成为社会各界关注的焦点。地区居民收入不平等己经成为居民收入分配领域比较突出的问题。对于浙江省来说,受发展政策的影响,各地区居民收入水平同样存在较大的不平等,科学客观地揭示不平等程度,分析其产生原因,进而实施相应的政策逐步缩小不平等程度,实现经济持续、快速、健康发展有着重要的意义。本文主要的贡献是将非参数理论应用到传统的收入分配领域,将数理统计的方法与经济社会的现实问题相结合,为地区收入不平等问题的研究提供了全新的视角。通过以浙江省各地区城镇居民的收入水平为研究对象,利用非参数理论中核密度估计方法拟合各地区居民收入分布的密度曲线,然后在收入分布的基础上计算收入不平等指标,从一个全新的视角度量地区收入不平等程度。利用反事实函数线性变换的思想将收入分布的变化展开分解,从分布变化的内在视角说明引起地区收入不平等动态变化的内在原因,为缓解不平等的加剧提供事实依据。利用泰尔指数可分解的特点研究区域内不平等和区域问不平等对整个地区收入不平等的影响和贡献。在准确度量地区收入不平等和区域经济差异的基础上,对地区收入不平等的变化与区域经济差异之问的相互作用关系进行计量经济分析,从静态均衡分析和动态关联分析两个方而研究他们之间的相互作用机制。本文主要研究内容包括八个章节：第一章,绪论。首先介绍本文的选题背景及意义,其次国内外地区收入不平等的主要研究成果,山此形成本文的研究目标、主要内容、技术路径,最后本文的难点、创新和不足。第二章,地区收入不平等研究的理论基础。木章主要介绍收入不平等理论,地区不平等理论和贫困理论。在收入不平等理论中主要介绍了规模收入分配理论、倒U理论和效率优先,兼顾公平的收入分配原则。地区不平等理论主要介绍了循环累积因果理论、增长极理论和非均衡增长理论。贫困理论主要介绍了贫困的定义、贫困的分类和地区贫困。这些基本理论构成本文研究的重要理论框架。第三章,地区收入不平等的研究方法。本章首先评述已有的各种收入不平等指标的发展由来、计算方法、适用范围和特点。考虑到各指标在一计算方法上的不足,本文提出了建立在非参数估计理论基础上的收入不平等指标和贫困指标的计算方法。最后,作者还借助非参数核密度估计和反事实函数线性变换相结合的方法提出了地区收入不平等和贫困变化的动态分解方法,以及以泰尔指数为对象的地区收入不平等空间分解方法,从方法论的角度为下文实证分析提供理论支撑。第四章,城镇居民地区收入不平等的测度分析。本章对浙江省城镇居民人均可支配收入的变动状况进行描述分析。在此基础上,从基本统计分析、非参数拟合收入分布计算基尼系数和分位数比值、贫困指数三个层面对浙江省城镇居民地区收入不平等程度进行测度分析。各种不平等指标的测度,不仅全面衡量了浙江省地区不平等程度,而且为下文地区收入不平等的动态分解分析奠定基础。第五章,城镇居民地区收入不平等的动态分解分析。在浙江省城镇居民地区收入不平等测度分析的基础上,本章从基于收入分布变化的分解视角对地区收入不平等进行动态分解研究。地区收入不平等的动态分解主要研究影响地区收入不平等变化和贫困变化的囚素及作用效果。第六章,城镇居民地区收入不平等的空间分解分析。考虑到居民收入空间集聚的特点,将浙江省划分为三大核心区,利用基尼系数和FGT贫困指数对其收入不平等程度进行测度,并与全省的相对水平展开比较分析。利用了泰尔指数可分解的特点,从空问集聚的视角研究浙江省三大核心区域内及区域间地区收入不平等对全省地区收入不平等变化的影响。第七章,城镇居民地区收入不平等变化的原因分析。木章利用非参数理论测算浙江省城镇居民人均GDP指标的基尼系数,并以此来度量区域经济差异。在此基础上,结合本文第四章对城镇居民地区收入不平等的测度研究,利用相关性检验、协整分析、Granger因果关系检验、误差修正模型、向量误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数以及方差分解分析等计量经济模型从经济差异的角度分析地区收入不平等变化的原因。第八章,结论及展望。本章总结了全文研究的主要成果,从更加系统、直观的角度对研究成果进行归纳。另外,对于本文的未来研究方向给予一定的阐述。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening up, resident income inequality is beginning to appear, and then continuing to expand in differnet classes and different regions, which is a foucs in the economic society.Regional income inequality is also becoming a outstanding problem in income field. When it comes to zhejiang province, it has a inequality influenced on different development about the resident income by region. It is significent to measure the inequality and analysis the cause, and then make an efficient policy to reduce the inequality keeping the economy sustainable rapid, healthy developmentThe paper has a valuable contribution to introduce the nonparametric estimation theory to income field researching. Combined statistical methods with social problems, it gives a new perspective of researching income inequality. The paper takes urban residents as objects in Zhejiang province, and introduces the nonparametric method to fit the income density function which is used to calculate income inequality indices. The method is a new measurement of regional income inequality. Based on the change decomposition of income distribution, the paper develops a dynamic decompositon about regional income inequality. The purpose of decomposition is to discover the causes and supply a basis in fact to reduce inequality. Considering the Theil index divided, it provides a way to analysis influece of inter-area and intra-area inequalties on the total regional income inequality. At last, the paper makes some econometric models to study of regional income inequality and regional economic difference. The models indicate the mechanism between regional income inequality and economic difference from static equilibrium and dynamic association.This paper consists of8chapters:CHAPTER1, General Introduction. As the opening badge, the first chapter mainly introduces the background and significance of selscting the topic, a review of research on the theory of income inequality at both home and abroad, and then forming the research targets, contents and methods, finally the difficult points, innovations and shortages.CHAPTER2, The basic theory of regional income inequality. The chapter briefly introduces the income inequality theory, regional inequality and poverty theory. The income inequality theory consists of the size distribution of income theory, the pour "U" theory and the principal of "efficiency comes first to balance equity". The regional inequality theory includes the circular causality theory, growth pole theory and unbalanced growth theory. The poverty theory mainly introduces the definitions, classifications and regional poverty. In a word, the chapter is the important theoretical framework of the paper.CHAPTER3, The research method of incom inequality. The paper reviews various indices of incme inequality. Considering some shortages about the indices, the paper constructs a new method based on the distribution of income to computation, which is obtained by nonparametric estimation. Moreover, the paper use the method which combines the anti-factal function changes with the nonparametric kernel density estimation to dynamicly decomposition the regional income inequality and poverty. At the same time, the paper use the Theil index to decomposition the regional income inequality. The methods are made to support the empirical research in the next contents.CHAPTER4, Income inequality measurement analysis for urban residents. Based on the per-capita disposable income fluctuations of urban residents, the paper measures the regional income inequality from three aspects of statistic indices, Gini index and quantiles, poverty index. All the indices are obtained from the income distribution fitted by the nonparametric estimation. The measurement of income inequality is the foundation of dynamic decomposition the regional income inequality.CHAPTER5, Dynamic decomposition the regional income inequality for urban residents. Based on the change decomposition of income distribution, the paper develops a dynamic decompositon about the regional income inequality. The purpose of the dynamic decomposition is to discover the causes of the regional income inequality and poverty changes.CHAPTER6, Spatial decomposition the regional income inequality for urban residents. Considering the spatial agglomeration character of income, Zhejiang province is divided into three core areas. Measure the income inequality of three core areas by Gini index and poverty index, which could develop a comparative analysis with the total Zhejiang province. By the Theil index decomposition, it is found how the areas’ income inequality influencing on the total regional inequality.CHAPTER7, The cause analysis of regional income inequality changes. The regional economic difference is measured by Gini index of per GDP which is calculated by nonparametric estimation for urban residents. Combined with the measurement of regional income inequality, there are many empirical analysis between regional income inequality and regional economic difference by Econometric models which are including Correlation test, Cointegration analysis, Granger causality test, Error correction model, Vector error Correction model, Impulse response function, Variance decomposition.CHAPTER8, Conclusions and prospects. It is including all the conclusions of the paper, and then the paper give a expatiation for the further researching.更多还原