【作者】 刘猛；

【导师】 白雪梅；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 统计学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 随着人类社会的进步和文明程度的发展,世界各国越来越重视社会保障在促进经济社会和谐发展及政治稳定方面的作用。在社会保障体系中,养老金制度是其中非常重要的一环。自19世纪末,德国建立起世界上第一个强制性公共养老金计划后的一百多年来,已有160多个国家和地区建立了养老金制度,其具体制度的设计与推行均由政府承担,其中公共养老金计划已成为社会成员维持老年基本生活最可靠的保证。中国的养老保险制度是世界养老保障体系的重要组成部分。中国自1951年建立公共养老金制度以来经历了多次的调整,以不断地适应经济发展水平、经济体制和人民群众生活需要的变化。1978年改革开放后,特别是在20世纪90年代的中后期确定社会主义市场经济体制后,公共养老金制度的发展开始进入了快车道。1997年,我国养老金制度改革取得重大突破,初步建立了个人账户与社会统筹相结合的养老金制度运行模式。但是经过十几年的实践运行后发现,养老金体系运行的复杂性远远超出制度设计者的预期,一些困难和问题在体系运行中逐渐暴露出来,反映出制度设计上的缺陷。2005年,公共养老金制度再一次大幅度推进改革,开始采用缴费确定型积累制和给付确定型现收现付制相结合的统账结合制度模式。从运行情况看,改革后的养老金制度还存在相对脆弱的环节,在面临全球共同的老龄化问题的同时,中国养老金的特殊矛盾更加突出。首先是养老保障的覆盖面,“十二五”期间特别是前半期就要推进到完全覆盖城乡,政府承担做实个人账户和基础养老金的保障责任,财政压力巨大；其次替代率和保障水平问题也一直是中国养老金制度的脆弱环节,随着替代率的不断提升和保障水平的进一步提高,现行养老金节余会快速减少,甚至入不敷出；农民工的社会保障问题是中国特有养老金矛盾,究竟是随着城市化的扩张,让农民工养老金进入城镇居民体系还是按照农民工的户口属性,采用新农村养老保险来作为载体都将是下一步政策考虑的关键问题。总体上,中国的养老金制度可持续发展矛盾更加突出,问题也更加尖锐。本文基于养老金制度建设理论,在公共养老金制度已有研究文献的基础上,全面分析中国养老金制度的难点和不足,并依此构建理论模型,先后纳入农民工、社会保障税、全国社保基金等因素和变量,从经济增长效应和社会福利效应两个角度对不同公共养老金制度模式进行比较,重点研究不同公共养老金制度模式在中国的适用性,进而以全国社会保障基金等国家准备基金制度为基础,提出养老金制度可持续发展的主要思路和建议。此外,结合中国经济发展方式转变的要求,厘清养老金制的机制和作用,将养老金制度与加快经济发展方式转变相结合,进一步明晰养老金制度的作用。根据上述主要问题和研究目标,按照现有文献研究回顾和理论综述、养老金制度的现状、养老金制度的主要问题、解决养老金制度问题的主要思路和方法、以及以养老金制度推进经济发展方式转变的逻辑思路,深入展开研究。全文共分为7章。第1章导论。主要介绍选题背景和意义,厘定涉及全文的重要概念,在综述养老金制度国内外研究进展的基础上,阐明研究视角和基本思路,明确研究价值。第2章养老金制度及其在中国的发展现状。主要梳理世界各国养老金制度的改革和发展,中国养老金制度建立和发展的总体情况,城镇、农村养老金制度分析。其中,对世界各国养老金制度改革和发展的考察可以为客观地认识中国养老金制度提供参照和基础；分析中国养老金制度的发展历程为认识中国养老金制度的现状提供背景和条件；而对城镇、农村养老金制度的分析则为以后各章的分析奠定基本框架和模式。第3章中国养老金制度转轨过程中隐性债务问题。在分析隐性债务形成的基础上,结合中国隐性债务形成的历史原因,国有企业改革和民营企业现代化的切实需要,并依照现行养老金缴纳和管理立法的要求,构建隐性债务的测算模型,测算养老金隐性债务。第4章中国养老金的待遇水平和替代率问题。养老金待遇和替代率是影响可持续发展的重要因素,中国当前的养老金替代率水平偏低,而新增的养老人口和养老金支出压力很大。一方面要有效地提升养老金待遇,另一方面还要在收入分配制度大幅改革的前提下提高替代率,养老金制度改革的压力巨大。本章以最优度测算为基础,提出中国养老金待遇和替代率的改革方案。第5章中国养老金目前的支出压力和筹资分析。主要包括对中国当前养老金支出规模的测定,农民工群体纳入养老金制度后的支出压力和解决养老金不足的筹资方案。其中,创新性地提出社会保障税对现行养老金制度的支持,预测税收规模、使用方向和保障能力。第6章以全国社会保障基金为基础,提出国家养老准备基金的建设和发展方案,提出具有政策性和操作性的养老金制度可持续发展措施。这一方案,与国务院对全国社保基金的定位基本相同,与全国社保基金2010年发展战略规划会的基本方针大致相同,也对未来全国部分社会保险基金交由社会保障基金托管进行动态化预测。第7章是对养老金制度可持续发展意义的提升,养老金制度对消费结构、消费规模、缩小收入分配差距等都有显著的促进作用进行分析,从而为加快经济发展方式转变奠定良好的经济社会环境和政策基础。本章通过对农民工问题、人口老龄化问题、全国社保基金和社会保险基金的运行问题、社会保障税的征收问题等的分析,给出中国未来养老保险基金可持续发展的基本状况,并提出国家财政保障的基本规模和方法。论文的创新和特点：一是论证方法的创新。坚持总量上的定性和政策上的定量方法相结合,如采用国际比较的方法,分析中国养老金制度的保障能力、可持续性和未来风险；而在社会保障税、社会保险(障)基金的投资等方面,则采用定量方法测定。这样,既避免过度陷入保险式的精算技术主义,又规避了过于粗放式、评论式的经验主义研究。二是论证内容的创新。从理论上重新界定全国社会保障基金的性质,提出国家准备金的概念。三是结论的创新。本文的结尾力求对养老金制度的可持续发展与保障方案提出定量化、可操作的测算,主动对接宏观经济社会发展的大环境,既突出养老金制度的意义,又为解决当前经济发展方式转变提供了一条有效的思路。论文的缺陷和不足包括：1.数据上的不足。由于中国财政数据公布的粗线条和滞后,所需数据的项目往往只公开到类级,距离满足款级研究的要求还有非常大的差距,本文的部分研究只能停留在理论分析上,难以进行实证检验,致使最初的某些目标研究无法开展,在一定程度上影响到文章的说服力。2.研究方法上的不足。如果有充足的公开数据的支持,可以尝试采用面板数据模型对如各省养老金制度对居民消费的影响等问题进行深入研究。但由于中国目前数据公布的现状使许多有效的研究方法难以使用,直接影响到最初研究目标的实现。3.结论上的不足。受多种主客观因素的影响,对于许多重要的结论,只提出了思路和初步方案,未能达到可操作的程度,影响到本文的直接实用性,这也正是我今后要继续深化研究的内容。更多还原

【Abstract】 The implementation of social security is a symbol of social civilization and human progress, and the old-age security system is an important part of social security. From the historical point of view, a well-designed pension system plays important role in promoting economic development, social harmony and political stability. It has been more than100years since that the Germany government established the first mandatory public pension plan of the world in1889. More than160countries and regions have established pension system, and their governments assume the duties of design and implementation of pension system without exception. Particularly, the public pension plans held by governments are the most reliable guarantee for old-ages in the basic needs. Also, China’s pension system is an important component of old-age security system in the world.China’s public pension system has also experienced several adjustments since its inception in1951, in order to constantly adapt to the economic development level and changes in market conditions. In1997, the public pension system reform has achieved a major breakthrough. In the light of other countries and the World Bank recommends, China established the current pension system model, which is combined by social pooling and individual accounts. After several years of practice, some problems in the social insurance system emerged. Although the system was originally designed well, but the difficulty and complexity in the pension system processing has been far beyond the initial expectations of its designers. There are some difficult problems in this system to overcome, making the current pension system model into a quandary gradually. In2005, the pension system achieved another significant advance reform. The integrated system model combined by PAYG system and accumulation system, determined respectively by payment and contribution, was established. Under the new system, the pension system is still relatively fragile, contradictions in which become more prominent in the face of common global issues of aging. First, it is expected that the pension insurance will cover the urban and rural completely during the period of "Twelfth-five", especially in the first half of it. The government should take responsibility to do the individual and basic pension account, which inevitably causes great financial pressure for Chinese government. Second, the issues of replacement rate and security level have been weak links in China’s pension system. Current pension savings will be quickly reduced or even make ends meet with the rise of replacement rate and security level. Also, the pension system of social security of migrant workers is a unique issue. The key issue of policy for next step should be that, whether we should make the migrant workers into the pension system for urban residents with the expansion of urbanization, or establish new model of pension insurance in rural areas in order to respect the account properties of migrant workers. For China, pension system sustainable development becomes more prominent and acute. On the basis of a detailed study in research and reform status of global public pension system, this paper analyzes the difficulties and shortcomings of China’s pension system comprehensively, and thus build a theoretical model to compare the economy growth effects and welfare effects between different pension system models. Then, this paper focuses on the applicability of different models, and then proposes the main ideas and suggestions for pension system sustainable development on the basis of the National Social Security Fund and other national reserved fund.This paper includes7chapters. Chapter1introduces background and significance of this topic, sets some important concepts in the full text, and introduced related research at home and abroad. Chapter2is pension system development status in China including urban, rural pension system, and pension system reforms in the world. Chapter3measures implicit pension debt in the transition of China’s pension. On the basis of it, this chapter builds the calculation model, estimates the implicit pension debt. Chapter4discusses the benefits and replacement rate of China’s pension, and proposes reform program treatment for China’s pension under the estimation of optimal degree. Chapter5analyzes the existing expenditure pressure and financing issue of our pension, including the expenditure size and pressure of China’s current pension under the situation of absorbing the migrant workers into the pension system, and funding program. Chapter6proposes the construction and development programs for the National Social Security Fund based on National Pension Reserve Fund and operational and sustainable development initiatives for the pension system. Chapter7enhances the significance of the pension system sustainable development. The pension system has a significant role in promoting consumption structure and scale and reducing the gap in income distribution, therefore preparing a good social and economic environment and policy foundation for accelerating the economic development pattern changing.Overall, this paper has four innovations. The first is innovation of proof methods. This paper effectively adheres to the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, avoiding falling into a insurance type of actuarial technical doctrine and a review-type of empirical research. The second is innovation of the demonstration content. This paper re-defines the nature of the National Social Security Fund in theory, and put forward the concept of national reserve fund. The third is innovation of conclusions. This paper seeks to link the pension system with the macroeconomic environment, not only highlights the significance of the pension system, but also provides an effective way to change the current economic development pattern.In addition, due to the ability and knowledge, there are still a lot of shortcomings and deficiencies. Firstly, the relevant data is lack in the article. Because of the hysteresis characteristics of China’s financial data, only class-level data are accessible. So some of the research in this article is only stay on the theoretical analysis, it is difficult to do empirical test, resulting in many of the goals can not be carried out, to some extent, affect the persuasiveness of the article. Secondly, the research methods are also defective. Research in this paper is too dependent on time-series approach, therefore the lack of effective cross-sectional data analysis tools, resulting in a number of targeted research are not carried out. Thirdly, for many important conclusions, this paper presents only preliminary ideas and programs, which are far short of the level of operation, affecting the availability of this paper.更多还原