【作者】 高珊；

【导师】 王文俊；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 计算机应用技术， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 临机决策是决策者依赖其知识、经验、技能对事件态势进行分析、判断、预测与推理并做出决断的认知心理学过程，其心理学模型包括应急决策共享心智模型与决策认知过程模型。如何构建临机决策认知过程的计算模型，实现该认知过程在计算科学领域的半自动化，是应对经验丰富决策者较少的有效途径。实现其半自动化，需要研究共享心智模型的计算模型、临机决策认知过程的计算模型，以及基于特定逻辑基础的认知推理。本文针对应急临机决策计算模型涉及到的三个关键问题：临机决策认知过程、临机决策知识表示和临机决策的认知推理逻辑基础展开研究，基于此完成如下几方面的工作：1、提出临机决策认知过程的概念模型。在研究经验丰富决策者的决策认知过程基础上，设计临机决策认知过程的概念模型层次结构，包含应急认知操作层、应急认知函数层、认知过程操作层和认知过程原子操作层四个层次。以应急预案为应急领域认知操作基础，提出应急认知操作集合；从应急事件感知的角度对认知操作进行分类，提出应急认知函数集合；以自然决策认知Sensemaking模型作为认知过程操作层的基础，提出认知操作集合。最后，为满足认知过程逻辑表示的需要，提出认知过程原子操作集合。2、构建应急共享心智模型的概念模型。建立应急共享心智模型的概念模型框架，采用自顶向下逐层细化的方式对应急共享心智模型进行本体建模。以ABC本体模型为基础扩展事件感知相关概念，提出事件感知元本体模型作为上位本体；在此基础上，扩展应急领域事件感知相关概念，建立应急事件感知本体模型作为中位本体；最后针对应急领域决策制定知识表示的需要，提出应急态势、应急资源、应急案例、应急预案和应急组织等应用层本体模型。3、设计临机决策强相关逻辑模型。为满足临机决策认知推理的需要，建立临机决策强相关逻辑模型，包含逻辑推理模块和逻辑表示模块两个组成部分。逻辑推理模块通过扩展强相关逻辑的状态和事件推理能力，作为临机决策认知推理的逻辑基础；逻辑表示模块提出临机决策认知过程的逻辑表示，定义认知过程原子操作，对应急认知操作进行逻辑表示。基于上述研究基础，设计应急临机决策计算模型实现。包括：建立计算模型实现框架，提出决策计算知识表示方法，设计计算模型评价标准。最后，选取有代表性案例片段，通过对比应急临机决策计算模型计算结果与真实案例描述，评价临机决策计算模型的可用性和有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Emergency Improvisation Decision is a cognitive psychology determinationprocess that decision makers analysis, judgment, forecast and reasoning to emergencysituation rely on their knowledge, experience and skills, in which the psychologymodels include emergency decision sharing mental model and decision cognitiveprocess model. The effective way of dealing with the less experienced emergencydecision makers is that how to construct the computational model of the cognitiveprocess of emergency improvisation, how to realize the partialautomation of thiscognitive process in the field of computational science. The realization ofpartialautomation is need to research the computational model of sharing mentalmodel, the computational model of emergency improvisation cognitive process andthe cognitive reasoning based on the specific logical basis. This dissertationperformed a deep research on the three key problems in emergency improvisationdecision computational model, including emergency improvisation decision cognitionprocess and cognition operations, emergency knowledge representation, and the logicfunduction of the decision-making cognition reasoning. Following work has beenachieved:1. Emergency improvisation decision cognition process model wasproposed. Based on the research of the decision cognition process of theexperienced decision makers, it has designed a conceptual model ofimprovisation decision cognition process. The model has four layers,including emergency cognitive operation layer, emergency cognitivefunction layers, cognitive process operaton layer and cognitive proceeatomic operation layer. Based on emergency knowledge in emergencyplan, the dissertation described emergency cognitive operators set.Classfing the emergency cognitive operators in terms of the emergencyevent awareness, it put forward emergency cognitive functions set.Cognitive operators were proposed depending on the SensemakingModel of natural decision cognitive. At last, it desribed cognitive proceeatomic operators set.2. The conceptual model of emergency sharing mental model was proposed.First, the dissertation proposed the framework of emergency sharingmental model. Adopting the method of top-down, emergency sharing metal model was built base on the ABC Ontology Model, including eventawareness atomic ontology model as the upper ontology, emergencyevent awareness ontology model as middle otology. Domain ontologyincludes emergency situation ontology model, emergency resourceontology model, emergency case ontology model, emergency planontology model and emergency organization ontology model.3. Improvisation decision strong relevant logic model was designed. Inorder to meet the need of decision cognition reasoning, the improvisationdecision strong relevant logic model was proposed, including logicreasoning module and logic representation module. Event logic and statelogic were introduced to the improvisation decision strong relevant logicand extended emergency domain logic operators and theorems.Emergency improvisation decision cognition process was representedthrough defining the cognitive process atomic operation.Finally, an emergency improvisation decision computational model realizationbased on above research was introduced to verify our results, including the calculationmodel realization framework, the knowledge representation method of decisioncalculation, and evaluation standard. At last, we selected a representative casefragments, compared the calculation results of computational model and the casedescription, and evaluated the flexibility and efficiency of the model.更多还原