【作者】 罗叶；

【导师】 唐仁健；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 农业经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 突发事件形成的粮食公共危机是现代市场经济下人类面临的各种粮食危机的表现形式之一。极端气候、自然灾害等等突发事件的影响,在局部地区、局部范围、持续一定的时期,形成灾难性的粮食危机。历史上已经多次出现的人类大饥荒,都证明了突发事件对粮食安全的重大影响。粮食安全的公共性决定了粮食危机的公共性,政府对粮食危机的应对必然具有公共性。从广义上,可以认为,粮食危机就是粮食公共危机,二者可以通用。从狭义上,基于本文的角度出发,粮食公共危机是专指由突发事件引起的公共危机中的粮食问题。本文中的粮食公共危机特指突发事件引发的粮食不安全的危机。传统的粮食危机,是粮食供给总量不足的短缺危机,现代社会人类面临的却是粮食总量有余而因为特殊原因在一定区域内特定人群面临粮食供给中断或者市场扭曲而买不起买不到足够粮食的危机。粮食危机具有公共性,当然是社会公共危机。危机管理作为新兴学科,偏重于危机发生后对人的生命救援和社会秩序的恢复,对于其中至关重要的粮食安全问题,仍是鲜有提及。突发事件冲击形成的粮食公共危机,则不是粮食供求总量平衡本身的原因,而是突发、偶然事件或因素引起的。近年来的事实是,特大自然灾害例如2008年5·12四川汶川特大地震、2010年1月海地地震、2011年3月11日日本地震；严重卫生疫情例如2003年SARS疫情扩散、2009年4月墨西哥猪流感爆发；社会性事件例如粮食库存损失、粮食运输事故、超市经营者促销或大幅提高价格,等等,引发社会部分人群产生粮食短缺或涨价预期,从而造成短期粮食供给不足或粮食市场动荡的危机。第一,在案例背景基础上创造性提出粮食公共危机的系列概念辨析和相关理论设想。本文在总结已经发生的突发事件影响下的粮食供应、市场运行、市场主体行为和政府应急管理案例经验的基础上,回顾了中外经济学界关于粮食安全、粮食饥荒、灾难经济学、公共危机管理和供应链管理等有关研究成果,分析了突发事件事粮食公共事件演变为粮食公共危机的过程、机理和规律,归纳出粮食公共危机具有触发因素的复杂性、影响范围的广泛性、冲击的连锁性、控制的应急性等特征,容易对经济、社会产生放大效应和连锁效应,进而探讨了粮食公共事件与粮食公共危机、粮食公共危机与粮食安全及粮食危机之间概念上的界定和相互之间的区别、联系,强调粮食公共危机是新的市场经济条件下的非传统粮食安全问题。进而结合与突发事件下粮食需求、供给的变化和消费者、经营者以及政府行为的变化、公共危机处置相关的经济学、管理学、政治学、社会学、心理学等有关理论,提出了构建粮食公共危机管理理论的体系框架。主要有：(1)粮食公共危机与粮食安全理论问题；(2)突发事件下粮食超额需求理论问题；(3)粮食公共危机管理的性质分类和权利安排管理理论问题；(4)粮食公共危机的消费者行为理论问题；(5)粮食公共危机的经营者行为理论问题；(6)政府粮食公共危机的供给与需求管理理论问题；(7)企业社会责任和粮食主渠道与粮食公共危机管理理论问题；(8)粮食市场结构与粮食公共危机管理理论问题。等等。第二,在对粮食公共危机进行经济学分类分析的基础上,系统地论述了粮食公共危机产生的不同市场主体行为方面的原因与影响因素。粮食公共危机的经济学分类方面。一是按照危机期间粮食供给与需求的矛盾为主线可以分成三类：(1)供给抑制型,突发事件冲击造成了粮食供给物流系统或渠道的萎缩、导致粮食市场供给大幅度减少或者粮食市场突然之间不存在。(2)需求膨胀型,突发事件冲击使得大量消费者在同一时间内形成了粮食涨价或短缺的心理预期,为规避粮食涨价或买不到粮食的风险,从而改变粮食购买习惯,一次性集中购买较长时期如1-3个月消费量的粮食,形成粮食公共危机风潮。(3)供给抑制型和需求膨胀型同时混合出现,连续的自然灾害和贸易经济结构畸形,极端例子是战争和重大社会动荡时期。二是按突发事件下粮食需求的性质划分,从一系列粮食突发事件中呈现一个显著的共同点,即突发事件冲击下粮食供求关系呈现出显著的超额需求特征,即粮食需求的性质表现为显著的超额需求。可以区分为：(1)相对超额需求,由粮食供给不足或中断形成,相对于正常的生命健康、营养、数量的需求而言的不足部分；(2)绝对超额需求,由于心理恐慌情绪或者风险防范需要,消费者抢购囤积未来一段时间消费数量的粮食,从而形成超过正常市场均衡状态下不在即期的消费需求范围之内的需求量。粮食公共危机的成因和产生机理。虽然粮食公共危机的导火索往往由一些偶然性突发因素,但这些偶然因素之所以能引发粮食公共危机,有其深刻的原因。宏观背景是粮食供求宏观形势的紧平衡,微观基础是粮食生产者、经营者和消费者的逆市场行为,突发性事件的出现是诱因,社会心理预期的形成是危机产生的温床,粮食供应链的波动、断裂是危机产生的突破口。突发事件下人的心理演化过程是蝴蝶效应的心理耦合。微小的特定突发事件就如同蝴蝶的翅膀振动,可能经过若干传导扰乱部分人群的购买心理从而影响粮食安全系统；重大突发灾难事件直接摧毁粮食供应链条,造成粮食安全系统不能正常运转；信息在传播过程中畸变演化成危机,蝴蝶效应演变成危机。粮食公共危机管理的ETRM方法与模型构建。粮食安全特别是饥饿、饥荒问题的研究,经历了传统的供给不足即所谓FAD理论到现代的权利制度失败理论两个阶段。根据突发事件下粮食需求畸变为不同的粮食超额需求(Excess Demand)的性质类型(Type)确定消费者不同的权利安排(Right),采取不同的政策措施实施危机管理(Manage),即本文命名为粮食公共危机管理的ETRM方法。粮食相对超额需求管理,应当由政府无偿提供粮食作为公共品供给解决；绝对超额需求管理,应当由政府提供秩序公共品,矫正市场扭曲或失灵。防止出现供给抑制和需求膨胀叠加、相对和绝对超额需求交替、抢购和饥荒并存的公共粮食危机。第三,在调查数据基础上深入研究不同市场主体的行为特征与粮食公共危机之间的关系,提出危机管理对策。首先,经营者行为。主要是粮食经营者在应对粮食市场波动采取囤积居奇策略对粮食安全的影响与对策。对粮食的囤积居奇,是人类社会争议不断、屡禁不绝的违背社会道德甚至法律的行为。从古代统治者到现代政府,大多都对粮食囤积居奇行为采取了各种各样的管治措施,竭力维护粮食市场的稳定性以保障粮食安全。在现代市场经济条件下,囤积居奇如何影响粮食安全,以及政府如何有效管治?本文在回顾从粮食囤积居奇产生的经济思想与经济理论分析的基础上,结合现代粮食市场的实际,以2009年四川省800多户粮食经营者调查数据为依据,针对中国政府近年来建立必要库存制度作为粮食法律规制,反囤积居奇维护粮食安全的有效性与影响因素进行实证研究,并提出合理的对策建议。其次,消费者行为。粮食抢购现象,是突发事件引起的粮食公共危机的突出表现。防范和消除粮食抢购是任何一个负责任的政府都必须采取的维护社会稳定和经济安定的重大的粮食安全政策。在总结近年来中国发生的多次粮食抢购事件特征基础上,组织对四川省21个大中城市近1000名消费者的问卷调查分析,通过从经济学理论分析和计量经济学实证检验,试图深入研究消费者的个体行为决策及其影响因素在突发事件下如何导致抢购意愿产生,运用Logit模型实证分析了消费者个体特征、家庭社会经济因素、对粮食安全的判断以及消费者作为购买决策人的粮食购买的行为偏好等对粮食抢购意愿的影响,证实消费者年龄、家庭收入水平和粮食购买数量对产生抢购意愿有显著影响,消费者性别、婚姻、受教育程度、家庭结构、职业、对粮食安全状况的判断、购买场所等因素则不具统计上的显著性。第四,在中国粮食市场化改革经验和相关数据分析的基础上,探讨了产业组织形式和政府规制方面影响粮食市场稳定性的制度性因素。首先,市场结构对粮食安全的影响与对策。通过运用当代西方经济学主流市场结构范式,对2004年以来中国粮食流通体制完全市场化改革后市场结构与粮食市场稳定性进行实证研究证明,西方经济学所谓主流市场结构范式,不能实现粮食市场稳定,难以有效维护粮食安全。在中国粮食市场结构演变与粮食市场稳定性关系研究基础上得出结论：带有垄断性质和过度竞争的市场结构,都是不利于粮食安全的,只有自由竞争加上一定程度的政府管制才是最有利于市场稳定。因此,“完全竞争+主渠道”范式是维护中国粮食安全的目标市场范式。并提出了有利于粮食安全目标的市场结构范式的判断标准和指标体系。其次,主渠道、企业社会责任与粮食公共危机管理。传统观念上,主渠道就等于国有经济。市场经济条件下是否还需要主渠道存在和发挥作用?主渠道是否必须由国有经济成份承担?以2004年以来直接面向消费者的粮油成品市场和直接面向种粮农民的粮食收购市场为对象,探究是主渠道存在的内生性,市场主渠道需要进行理论创新和符合市场经济要求的重新构建。同时,通过构建一个国有和私营的混合寡头同时行动的经营数量竞争博弈模型,探究最优的国有粮食主渠道市场份额策略,以改进国家粮食宏观调控方式、提高政策效率和市场绩效,维护粮食市场稳定,实现粮食公共危机管理的目标。第五,在对生产者、经营者和消费者行为研究的基础上,通过汶川大地震、绿豆炒作等案例分析,提出政府应对粮食公共危机的防范与管理的对策。中国对粮食公共事件危机的有关理论和政策问题的研究还十分薄弱,地方基层政府普遍存在忽视粮食公共危机管理的现象。因此,在思想上树立粮食公共危机管理意识,在行为上建立完善的粮食应急管理体系,实为当务之急。同时,必须完善相关法律法规和配套制度建设,提高政府应对粮食公共危机的处置能力,调动全社会各相关主体的危机意识、责任意识和公共意识,有效维护突发事件下的粮食安全。更多还原

【Abstract】 Public crisis of food formed under emergency is one of the food crisis that we facing under modern market economy. Such as extreme weather, natural disasters. Such emergency sustained a certain period of time in the given area or the fixed scale, which form a catastrophic food crisis. Famine happened in humanity history many times, all proves its significant impact on food security.What deciding the public nature of food crisis is the public nature of food security; therefore, public nature is the way that government used to handle the food crisis. In a broad sense, food crisis is food public crisis; those two can be thought as one. In the narrow sense, based on the perspective of this study, food public crisis refer in particular to food issue of public crisis caused by emergency. In this study, food public crisis refer in particular to food insecurity crisis caused by emergency. Traditional food crisis is the shortage crisis caused by lack of food supply. What we are facing today is, for the special reasons in a certain area, the given people must confront the crisis that they cannot get enough food because of food supply disruption or market distortions. Due to the public nature of food crisis, it can be relegate to social public crisis. As new branch of science, crisis management lay particular stress on rescue of human life and restoration of social order, but for the crucial food security issue is rarely mentioned. Food public crisis formed by emergency is due to the unexpected or occasional event, instead of balance itself that between demand and supply. Recently years, the fact happened frequently as follows, the extraordinarily serious natural calamities, such as Wenchuan earthquake on may12th2008, Haiti earthquake in January2010, and Japan earthquake on march11th2011; Serious epidemic situation, such as epidemic of SARS spread in2003, swine flu in Mexico in April2009; Social events, such as the loss of food stocks, the accidents of food transport, sales promotion or rise in price by market operators, etc. all those sudden events lead people owning the expectation of food shortage and price increasing, that could bring about the deficiency of food supply in short-term, or the unstable crisis of food market.Firstly, based on the case, the concept and other related theory of food public crisis is introduced in this part.Concluded on the experience of food supply, market operation, market subject behavior, and the case study of government emergency management as their base, reviewed the achievement in economic research both overseas and domestic related in food security, food famine, disaster economics, public crisis management, and supply chain management, explained how food public event evolving to food public crisis by emergency, summed up the characteristics of food public crisis such as the complexity of precipitating factors, the universality of effect range, the linkage of attack, and the emergency-reaction of control, generated scale effect and chain effect to the economy and society, we define the food public events and food public crisis, food public crisis, food security and food crisis, summarize their difference and connection, emphasize that the food public crisis is a untraditional food security issue under the market economy. Therefore, theoretical framework system of the management of food public crisis is made up by combining with the change of food supply and demand under emergency, the behavior alteration of consumers, operators and government, and the theories related to the disposition of public crisis, such as economy, management, politics, sociology, psychology. This system includes:(1) food public crisis and food security theory;(2) excess demand theory under emergency;(3) qualitative classification of crisis management of food public and the management theory of arrangement of right;(4) consumer behavior theory of food public crisis;(5) operator behavior theory of food public crisis;(6) the management theory of supply and demand in government food public crisis;(7) corporate social responsibility, main channel of food, and management theory of food public crisis;(8) market structure of food and management theory of food public crisis, etc. Secondly, Based on the economical classification analysis of food public crisis, the study is discoursed to systematize the cause and influencing factor that generated by different main market players in food public crisis.Economical classification of food public crisis is raised in this part. In the first, according to contradiction between supply and demand of food, it can be divided into three main areas as follows.(1) Supply suppression. System or channels of food supply and demand shrink for the crash of emergency, which bring about substantial reduction of food supply, or the sudden disappearance of food market.(2) Demand inflation. To avoid risk, lots consumers change their consuming habit of food when they expect food prices rise or food shortage in one period of time. They panic buy food at one-time which can be used in1-3months, that’s formed the trend of food public crisis.(3) The mixture of supply suppression and demand inflation. This type, natural disasters happens continuously, and structure of trade economy twist. The extreme example is the period of intense social unrest. In the Second, as the nature of food demand under emergency, it can be divided into two kinds. A significant common ground appeared in series of food emergencies is relation between supply and demand of food shows the characteristics of excess demand. That means the nature of food demand registered as significant excess demand. One kind is the relative excess demand. When supply is insufficient or interrupted, relative to what we need for health, nutrition and quantity, food cannot be enough for our normal life. The insufficient part can be called relative excess demand. The other one is absolute excess demand. The need of psychological panic or risk prevention, consumers could hoard a certain food for the foreseeable future. This way, the demand is out of the scope of normal market that under the equilibrium state.The cause and generation mechanism of food public crisis is analyzed. Some unexpected factors are the primacord of food public crisis, and the reason why these causal factors can lead the food public crisis is introduced as below. Macro-background is the tight balance of Macro Situation between supply and demand of food. Micro-foundation is the behavior of producers, operators and consumers against market. Food public crisis, which is occasioned by emergency, formed by social psychological expectation, broke out by the fluctuation and rupture of food chain. The evolution process of psychology of emergency couples the Butterfly Effect. Tiny specific sudden incidents just like the quiver of butterflies’wings which could influence the system of food security by disrupting purchasing psychology. Sudden disastrous events, which destroy the supply chain of food directly, and impact the working order of food security system. During the dissemination, the information distorted to crisis, and butterfly effect evolved into crisis.ETRM theory and model in management of food public crisis is built. Food security, especially research on the issues of hunger and famine, experience the traditional theory of supply shortage (FAD theory) to the theory of right failure and rule in modern time. According to type of different food excess demand distorted by food demand under emergency, the research which can be called DTRM of food public crisis management, that can arrange different right of consumers, and manage crisis by different political measures. Management of relative excess demand of food can be solved as public goods supply, and management of absolute excess demand of food can correct market distortion or failure. It can prevent the food public crisis which characteristics as overprinting of supply suppression and demand expansion, alternating the relative and absolute excess demand, and coexistence of panic buying and famine.Thirdly, based on the survey data, the paper is studied of the relationship between behavior characteristic of different main market players and food public crisis, and put forward strategies on crisis management.First are the operators’behaviors are considered. The main concerns are the impact that the hoarding and cornering policy taken by the grain operators in response to fluctuation of grain market has on food security and the countermeasures. The argument is endless about the hoarding and cornering policy, which is considered as the behavior that violated the social morality and law. From ancient to modern, governments take variety of measures to maintain the stability of food market and food security. How did the hoarding and cornering policy influence the food security? And how could government control it effectively in the market economy? by reviewed on economic thought and economic theory that produced by hoarding and cornering policy, combined realization of modern food market, investigated more than800food operators of Sichuan in2009, pointed against necessary stock system that established by Chinese government as food legal regulation, this paper is took empirical study between the validity of food security and its influencing factor on anti-policy of hoarding and cornering, and raised the reasonable countermeasure.In addition, consumers’behaviors. Panic buying of food is appeared in food public crisis caused by emergency. Any responsible government must take food security policy that can maintain stability of society and economy. By summarized the characteristics of panic buying of food that happened many times before in China, analyzed the questionnaire investigated by1000consumers of21cities in Sichuan, investigated the individual consumer behavior to show the reason that caused the willing of panic buying through analyzed of economy theory and empirical test of econometrics, this paper is analyzes the individual characteristics, family socio-economic factors, judgment of food security and the influence of behavior performance of purchasing decision-maker as consumers on the willing of food panic buying, and made the conclusion as follow. Some factors have a significant impact on purchases, such as Age of consumers, income level of household, amount of food purchases. And some like sex of consumers, marriage, education, family structure, educational background, family structure, job occupation, situation of food security, purchase venue have not impact purchases so much.Forthly, from the perspective of industrial organization form and government regulation, based on the experience of food market reform in china and the analysis of related data, what are the institutional factors is explored in this section on the consider of stability of food market.At the beginning, it discusses how the market structure impacts the food security. Through the use of the market structure form of contemporary western main stream, market stability of food can not be achieved. Empirical study proved the result which mentioned above by market structure after market-oriented reform and the stability of food market. Based on the study of relationship between evolution and stability of food market structure, the conclusion can be drew as, instead of market structure with monopoly and overcompetion, the best for the market stability is free competition with certain degree of government regulation. Thus, the normal form of "pure competition plus main channel" can protect target market of food security of China. And criterion and index system of normal form of market structure is raised for the good at the target of food security.In addition, the management of main channel, social responsibility of enterprise, and the food public crisis. from traditional view, main channel can be equal to state-owned sector. Is it necessary for the existence of main channel to play its role? Whether the main channel must be undertook by the state sector. Take oil products market faced directly to consumers and grain market faced directly to grain producer as object Since2004, the endophytism of the existence of main channel is explored, and main channel of market is reconstructed according to theory innovation and requirement of the market economy. At the same time, it may establish a quantity-oriented competitive mode, in which the mixed oligopoly of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises act simultaneously, to probe the best policy to determine the market share of major state-owned grain channels so as to improve the state grain macro-control mode, enhance the efficiency of the policy and market performance, maintain a stable grain market and realize the target of managing the public food crisis.Fifthly, based on the behavior research of producers, operators and consumers, the strategies of prevention and management of food public crisis are raised though the case study of Wenchuan earthquake and the hype of green beans.It is very weak on the study about the relevant theories and policy issues of food public crisis in china. And grassroot-level government often ignores the management of food public crisis. Therefore, it is imperative that we should establish the awareness of food crisis management, and improve the management system of food emergency. Meanwhile, the relevant laws and regulations must be completed, and a complete set of measures must be established. In addition, government should improve its handling ability to food public crisis, transfer consciousness of crisis, sense of responsibility, and consciousness of public, safeguard food security under emergency.更多还原