【作者】 汪朝阳；

【导师】 凌丹；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 产业经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 在开放经济条件下,一国产业结构优化离不开国际因素,尤其是发达市场经济国家的成功因素的影响。对外开放不仅是我国经济增长的促进力量,更重要地,它还是结构升级、产业换代的主要依靠。改革开放三十多年以来,中国参与国际分工的深度和广度日益增强,产业结构升级更多的要在开放条件下进行。而在开放经济条件下,一切影响经济发展的因素都会对一国产业结构产生影响,但利用外商直接投资、商品的进出口则是影响产业结构变动的最主要的外部因素。本文首先对产业结构的演进规律、对外贸易(包括进口和出口)与产业结构、利用外商直接投资与产业结构的关系等相关研究进行了回顾梳理,指出研究的不足。接着借用迪克希特和斯蒂格利茨垄断竞争模型(即D-S模型)的基本研究框架分析了一国对外贸易开放的程度与产业结构调整之间的关系。并对衡量对外开放的综合指标以及衡量产业结构高级化的指标进行了介绍与选择。然后从国家和省际层面分别分析对外开放与产业结构的关系问题。在国家层面,本文选用我国1985-2010年的产业结构高级化指数(Moore指数)以及对外开放综合评价指数使用了协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法研究了对外开放与产业结构之间的长期均衡关系。研究表明：大力发展开放型经济将会促进产业结构向高级化方向发展,同时对外开放与产业结构高级化构成了单向的granger因果关系。在区域层面,使用传统的统计学指标和变异系数、GINI系数、广义熵以及锡尔熵等方法分别分析了对外开放与产业结构在省际空间上的绝对和相对差异并从多个角度对我国对外开放指数变动的空间特征、收敛性特征进行实证检验。对对外开放指数的相关性检验主要从其全局自相关、局域自相关、对外开放指数与产业结构的二维全局相关性及近十年的时序比较等几个角度进行测算。对于对外开放指数空间收敛性研究,主要从。收敛与空间β条件收敛两个角度来测量,研究表明对外开放指数在研究期间的前几年并没有出现空间收敛性的特征,其收敛态势近几年才出现,且大有延续之势,说明我国省际之间的对外开放程度会不断缩小。对外开放指数与产业结构高级化指数的相关性研究也是从2001-2010年10年的数据进行了测量。研究表明我国对外开放与产业结构之间有显著的促进关系,需要进一步提高对外开放程度,特别是中、西部地区。但产业结构的调整在注重高级化问题的同时还要兼顾合理性,要清楚了解对外贸易、国际生产要素流动、经济增长、我国资源要素禀赋改变以及产业结构变化之间的逻辑关系,利用比较优势战略及其动态化原则,用战略眼光处理产业结构调整的问题。最后,文章提出了需要进一步研究的方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the background of the open economy, a country’s industrial structure optimization depends on international factors, especially the impact of the success factors of the developed market economies. Opening not only is the promote power of China’s economic growth, but also is the main reason of the structure updating. Since three decades of reform and opening up, China’s participation in the international division of labor becomes deeper and broader. The conditions of the increasing and upgrading of industrial structure become more open, too. In an open economy, all the factors that affect economic development will have an impact on a country’s industrial structure, but the foreign direct investment, import and export of goods is the most important external factors of the industrial structure changes.Firstly, this thesis introduces the theory of industrial structure’s evolution, the relationship between foreign trade (including imports and exports) and the industrial structure, relationship between foreign direct investment and industrial structure.Thus, the thesis points out the lack of research.Secondly, using the basic idea of the Dixit and Stiglitz monopolistic competition model (D-S model), the thesis analyzes of the changes between the opening and the industrial structure. And comprehensive index to measure the opening to the outside world as well as to measure the indicators of the Industrial Structure of the introduction and selection.Then, from the national and provincial level, the thesis analyzes the relationship between economy openness and the industrial structure. At the national level, the selection of the1985-2010year China’s Industrial Structure Index (Moore index), as well as opening up the index of the cointegration test, error correction model and Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition method of long-run equilibrium relationship between the opening and the industrial structure. The results show that the development of an open economy will improve Industrial Structure, at the same time the ecomomy openess and the Industrial Structure constitute unidirectional granger causality.At the regional level, using the traditional statistical indicators and the GINI coefficient, the generalized entropy, the Theil entropy, the thesis analyzes the absolute and relative differences of the Chinese economy openness and the industrial structure in the space.Simultaneously, from various angles the thesis tests the spatial characteristics of the Chinese economy openness and the industrial structure. From the global correlation, local autocorrelation and two-dimensional local correlation, the thesis estimates autocorrelation test of the Chinese economy openness. To the spatial convergence study of the economy openess’index, mainly from the two angle measurement the σ convergence and space conditions convergence, the thesis studies have shown that the openess’index demonstrates the convergence trend in recent years. It indicates the gap of the degree of the provincial economy openness will reduce. Using the data of from2001to2010, the thesis studies the spatial correlation between Chinese economy openess and the industrial structure. The conclusion shows the economy openness will promote the adjustment of industrial structure, especially in the western region. But the adjustment of industrial structure focuses on the high-class problems, also taking into account the reasonableness. We must understand foreign trade, international factor mobility, economic growth, the change of factor endowments, the relationship between the factor endowments and industrial structure clearly. Facing the problem of the adjustment of industrial structure, we must adopt dynamic principles and strategic vision.Finally, the thesis presents the direction of further research.更多还原