【作者】 于凌云；

【导师】 贾志永；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 二十世纪80年代以来,在Samuelson(1958).Samuelson&Diamond(1975)的世代交叠模型(Overlapping—generations Model,OLG)以及Lucas(1988)的两部门增长模型的基础上,许多文献针对养老保险、人力资本的教育投资进行了研究,形成了两类研究框架：一类研究以世代交叠模型为基础着重分析了在实行养老保险制度的国家,不同的养老保险制度对人力资本投资的影响(Docquier&Paddiso,2003；Cruz&Amaia.Iza,2006等)；另一类研究则在内生经济增长的框架下,分析教育投入如何影响人力资本及技术进步等要素,进而促进经济增长(Blankenau&Simpson,2004；Cruz&Amaia,2006；Volker&Grossmann,2007等)。第一类研究的重点是从理论的角度研究了养老保险制度与人力资本投资之间的运行机制,而特定养老保险制度条件下的教育投资的实证分析较少；第二类研究的重点是人力资本的教育投入在经济增长过程中的作用,但无法区别政府教育投资和非政府教育投资对人力资本积累及经济增长的贡献。本文在Lucas(1988)和Kemnitz&Wigger(2000)的基础上,将人力资本的教育投入分为政府教育投资和非政府教育投资,建立了一个新的框架,即假定：一个经济体中存在无数的年轻期个体和年老期个体,年老期个体不再进行人力资本投资。其中,年轻期个体人力资本教育投入分为政府教育投资和非政府教育投资(包括企业、社会其他经济组织、学生家庭以及学生本人教育投入),年轻期个体的人力资本的形成首先是由政府进行教育投入,形成现有人力资本积累,进入劳动力市场后,再进行深化积累,其间的教育投入则主要是由非政府主体提供。以此为基础,运用理论和实证分析方法对中国养老保险制度、教育投资及经济增长之间的关系进行了研究。本文的理论分析表明,在没有养老保险制度以及在基金制的养老保险制度的均衡条件下,个体在当前生产和人力资本投资方面分配时间时,不能够完全内部化人力资本的溢出效用,因而会选择更多的时间用于物质资本的积累,以提高当期的储蓄水平用于年老时期的消费保障,导致了家庭用于教育的投入减少。在现收现付制的养老保险制度下,为了提高社会收益率、实现公共效用的最大化目标,政府不仅会对教育进行投入以提高社会劳动者现有的人力资本积累水平,而且企业和个人为了提高企业产出和个人收益率,也会进行人力资本建设的投入,进而有利于经济增长。此外,在无论实行何种养老保险制度的国家,非政府教育投入并不是越多越好,需要充分考虑非政府教育投入与物质资本的产出弹性。当其他均衡条件不变时,人均非政府教育投入的产出弹性等于人均物质资本投入的产出弹性才能够保持经济增长。二十世纪80年代以来,我国政府的教育经费投入上升速度很快,而上个世纪90年代我国还进行了“社会统筹与个人账户相结合”的基本养老保险制度改革。但是在制度运行过程中,由于养老保险制度的转制成本以及个人账户和社会统筹账户混账管理等原因,使个人账户操作存在“空账”运行的情形,每年用于养老金发放的社会统筹账户长期需要依靠中央和各级政府来加以补助,这种“空账”运行问题的长期存在决定了中国目前的基本养老保险制度实质上是一种现收现付制的筹资模式。因此,结合理论研究,本文运用1998-2009年的面板数据对我国的相关问题进行了实证分析。结果表明,我国养老保险制度改革过程中不仅存在转制成本,而且各年的转制成本对经济增长产生了负效应。此外,近二十年来,相对于政府教育投入而言,中国的非政府教育投入比重有逐年上升的趋势,近些年中国非政府教育投入对于人力资本的形成具有显著的正效应,表明中国目前的非政府教育投入的产出弹性大于物质资本的产出弹性,对于长期经济增长具有积极的作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since1980s, two research frameworks on human capital investment have been established based on two main models:the Overlapping Generations Model (OLG)(Samuelson,1958, Samuelson&Diamond,1975) and the Two-Sector of Growth (See Lucas,1988). One theory, using the OLG framework, primarily analyzes the impact of different social security systems on human capital accumulation in countries with established social security systems Docquier&Paddiso,2003; Cruz&Amaia.Iza,2006; et.al). The other focuses on how investment in education influences human capital, technological innovation and other factors thus stimulating economic growth (Blankenau&Simpson,200、Cruz&Amaia,2006and Volker&Grossmann,2007et.al)From the studies discussed above, we observe that research in the first category emphasizes more on the mechanism between a social security system and human capital accumulation from a theoretical perspective instead of empirical studies on educational investment under a particular social security system. In comparison, research in the second category is concerned with educational investment in human capital and its effect on economic growth, although it can not distinguish between government and non-government funding sources and their respective contribution to human capital accumulation and economic growth.This paper proposes a new research framework based on Lucas (1988) and Kemnitz&Wigger (2000), in which educational funding sources for human capital accumulation are bifurcated into government and non-government funding sources. Based on this framework, our theory categorizes educational investment in individual human capital into government funding and non-government funding, assuming that the process of human capital investment starts with government funding, which provides the initial labor pool. Accumulation of human capital continues upon the initial pool entering the labor market, which, if and when additional educational investment is needed, is primarily funded by non-government sources. In the same time, we analyzed and compared both the government funding sources and their respective long-term impact on economic growth under a security system using both theoretical models and an empirical study based on panel data in China.The theoretical analysis demonstrates that, in equilibrium without social security, the premium on human capital cannot be fully internalized when individuals seek to optimize their time investment in production and human resources, thus individuals in such a society tend to allocate more time in physical capital accumulation in order to increase current savings for retirement protection than in human capital accumulation, resulting in less investment in education. However, under a pay-as-you-go social security system, not only the government, in an effort to increase social economic return and maximize public utility, will invest in education to increase the level of human capital accumulation among current labor pool, but also enterprises and individuals will increase investment in human capital in order to enhance their enterprise output and individual economic return. Nevertheless the ratio of government educational investment to non-government educational investment varies greatly among different countries in the world. In general, higher level of non-government educational investment is not necessarily better. To determine the optimal level of non-government educational investment in a society, full consideration should be taken in the output elasticity of such non-government educational investment as well as the output elasticity of the physical capital. Furthermore, assuming equal balancing conditions, it is only when the output elasticity of per capita non-government educational investment per capita equals that of the physical capital that balanced growth can be sustained.Since the early1980s, China’s educational investment ratio has been increasing rapidly. In the same time, the Chinese government introduced a systemic reform in its social security system named "Universal Planning" However, in operating the system, many individual accounts are running in deficit due to various reasons such as the effective debt burden by the local government resulted from bearing the reform cost and the management confusion resulted from co-mingling of assets in the personal accounts with assets in the Universal Planning accounts. Consequently, pension payments from the Universal Planning accounts often rely heavily on subsidy from the local government at all levels for a long period of time. Retirement pension accounts operating under deficit has become a long-term problem, whose existence is key in concluding that China’s current social security system is essentially a pay-as-you-go system. In order to examine the theoretical conclusion described above, we conducted an empirical analysis using panel data in China from the period of1998to2009. The result indicates that the expenditures by the government for the cost to establish such a social security system had a negative impact on China’s economic growth. In addition, in the past20years in China, compared to government educational investment, the percentage of private educational investment has been trending up year over year with significant positive effect on human capital accumulation, which demonstrates that the current output elasticity of the non-government educational investment exceeds that of the physical capital, thus increasing such non-government educational investment will positively impact the long-term economic growth.更多还原