【作者】 刘刚；

【导师】 李廉； 安宁；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 应用数学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 随着社会的发展和城市规模的扩大,人群的集中度或密集度越来越高,社区是构成城市的基本单元,也是各类灾害承受的主体,社区的紧急应急和减灾防灾的功能显得尤为重要。近几年来,国际国内的重大灾害反复提醒人们,要重视社区灾害的预防,强化社区灾害风险的抵御能力,大力推进社区危机管理系统的建设,从而有效减少社区灾害事件的发生。社区灾害风险的防治是社会管理学领域中亟待解决的重大问题,也是计算机数学应用到应急管理中的一个重要方面,其研究将对于提高人们的抵御灾害的能力,促进社会和谐稳定发展具有重要意义。本论文以国家自然科学基金委员会重大研究计划培育项目“信息备灾体系及其面向服务的协作式系统研究”(项目号90924025)为依托,以基于社区的灾害风险减缓为研究对象,以开发具有实用价值的社区危机管理的系统平台、实现共享社区灾害风险信息和降低社区潜在灾害风险发生的可能性为目标,从理论和实践两个方面对于社区灾害风险的减缓工作开展相关研究。以兰州市城关区的五个社区为例,通过对社区灾害风险脆弱性的分析,设计标准的社区灾害风险脆弱性评价指数,基于层次分析法对社区灾害风险脆弱性进行模糊综合评价,并分析影响社区灾害风险脆弱性的主要因素。在此基础上通过调查城关区的社区居民对于社区灾害风险减缓的感知情况,分析和定量评价城关区社区灾害风险脆弱性的评价指数,从社区公众的视角探索参与的重要性和社区灾害风险管理的对策措施。在融入公众对于风险的描述信息的基础上,采用可信性理论来构建评价公众反馈信息的可信度的数学模型,并通过五里铺社区居民反馈的火灾风险数据进行验证,提供一种量化的社区公众参与式危机管理模式。采用Oracle Spatial技术,以Oracle Map作为地理信息平台,构建便于公众参与社区危机管理工作的原型系统——协作式风险信息地图系统。选取兰州市城关区五里铺社区为研究对象,让公众通过网络或者手机设备参与危机管理工作,反馈该社区火灾信息。系统对公众反馈信息进行可信性判断和量化处理,通过地图以直观的方式将社区火灾风险的相关信息展示和反馈,使社区应急管理从被动应付转到主动保障,提高五里铺社区危机管理的能力。从网络服务技术的角度,讨论Geospatial Web Services在社区危机管理系统中的重要作用,阐述Geospatial Web Services以及其它非空间的Web Services能够为社区的危机管理工作提供的服务。结合社区危机管理的整个流程,研究Geospatial Web Services(基于OGC制定的网络服务标准)在社区危机管理的不同阶段的有效应用,设计一种能在社区危机管理过程中全面使用Geospatial Web Services的方法。基于OGC制定的WFS规范,设计适用于测试社区危机管理系统性能的基准,该系统以社区危机管理过程中减缓社区灾害风险所需的公共信息为基础,从数据库查询的角度设计了构成Benchmark的要素级查询语句,并通过JMeter工具进行了五里铺社区应对火灾场景的试验验证。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of society and the expansion of the city scale, the concentration and intensity of the crowd is more and more high. As the community is the basic cell of society and the major burden of varied disasters, its function of emergency and disaster prevention and reduction is particular important. In recent years, the severe disasters in the internal and international regions remind people repeatedly to pay attention to disaster prevention, strengthen the ability against the risk of the disasters, promote the construction of crisis management system and reduce disaster events of communities. The disaster risk prevention and treatment of Community is not only the major problem to be solved in the filed of society management, but also one of the important aspects in emergency management of computer mathematic application. The research is very important for raising the capability of withstanding disasters and advancing harmonious and stable development of society.This paper is relied on the project-"Information System Against Disaster and Cooperated System Research Based on Service Orientation"(project number90924025) of the National Natural Science Foundation Committee. The study object of the research is to reduce the disaster risk of communities. The project is aimed to develop the valuable system platform of the crisis management of communities, share the community information of disaster risk and reduce the probability for potential disaster. The paper starts the research of risk mitigation of community from both theoretical and practical aspects.1) To take five communities of Chengguan district of LanZhou city as examples, the standard vulnerability evaluation index has been designed by analyzing the vulnerability of community disaster risk, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation for vulnerability of community disaster risk has been made based on the analytic hierarchy process, and at same time the study analyze the main factors that maybe affect vulnerability of community disaster risk. The research analyses and evaluates the index of disaster risk vulnerability of community in Chengguan district through the investigation of the sensitivity of the residents for community disaster risk mitigation, then explore countermeasures for disasters risk management of community and the importance of public participation from the perspective of communities.2) On the basis of the risk information described by public, the research builds the mathematical model to evaluate the credibility of public feedback information by adopting the credibility theory, then provides a quantitative community public participatory crisis management mode through validation of fire risk data collected from the residents in WuLiPu community.3) The Oracle Map is chosen as geographic information platform by Oracle Spatial techniques. The prototype system—Cooperative Risk Map System (CRMS) is constructed so that the public can participate in community crisis management. The study object is selected from the residents in WuLi community of Chengguan district of LanZhou city. The public is involved in crisis management work through internet or mobile phone to report fire alarm in this area. The system make the credibility judgment and quantitative for public feedback information, then display the relevant information of fire risk in community directly on the Oracle Map. This system make community emergency management turn from passive cope to active security and improve the ability of crisis management of WuLi community.4) From the viewpoint of Web Services technology, the paper discusses the important role of Geospatial Web Services in community crisis management system, expounds the applications in community crisis management provided by geographical space Web Services and other non-space Web Services. The research explores the effective application of the geographical space(the Web service standards formulated by OGC) through overall community crisis management process combined with the whole process of the community crisis management, and designs a method of Web Services with geographical space that can be used through all the community crisis management process.5) With the WFS standards established by OGC, we designed Benchmark applied to test the performance of community crisis management system. The system is developed on the basis of the public information needed for reducing the community disasters risk in emergency management process, as starting point to design queries statements that constitute a series of characteristic class of Benchmark from the point of view of database query, then tested and verified through dealing with the fire scenario of WuLi community by using JMeter tool.更多还原