【作者】 孙强；

【导师】 王庆云；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 管理科学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 交通基础设施投资是交通基础设施结构发展规划的一种具体表现形式,是交通基础设施结构演进的决定因素和巨大动力,它直接影响交通基础设施的建设、结构和布局。以投资规模为视角研究交通基础设施结构的发展规划问题,能够统一不同时期、不同地区、不同运输方式交通基础设施增量的定量描述,便于选用定量方法对交通基础设施在不同层次上的比例关系进行深入研究,为交通基础设施结构的发展规划提供一种决策视角。以投资规模为视角研究交通基础设施结构的发展规划问题可分为三个层次。宏观层次研究交通基础设施投资与社会经济发展关系和适应性问题。中观层次包括反映优化交通基础设施投资的地区分配的地区结构问题,反映各运输方式的线网规模和通行能力的比例关系的运输方式结构问题。微观层次包括区域城乡交通基础设施投资分配问题、城市内部交通基础设施投资在各种交通方式间的分配问题以及从交通基础设施的某一种运输方式内部考察各个环节投资的构成比例。本文通过交通基础设施投资规模的定性分析和决策模型、投资分配的优化模型对交通基础设施投资的宏观结构、地区结构和运输方式结构进行研究。本文综合运用宏观经济学、发展经济学、运输经济学、运筹学、运输化理论、最优控制理论、信息熵理论等相关领域知识,采用定性分析与定量方法相结合,研究基于投资规模视角的交通基础设施结构发展规划的理论与方法,并通过实证或算例分析来验证所构建的理论与方法的可行性和有效性。主要研究内容与结论如下：(1)交通基础设施结构发展规划的理论基础对论文研究的理论基础涉及的相关概念如交通基础设施结构、发展规划、动态环境、投资与资本存量等进行了辨析,对投资与发展规划、交通基础设施结构、运输需求结构等相关概念之间的关系进行了分析,并总结了交通基础设施结构发展规划需遵循的原则。在此基础上提出以投资规模为视角研究交通基础设施结构发展规划的宏观、中观和微观三个层次的若干研究问题。(2)交通基础设施投资的宏观结构研究通过分析美国铁路基础设施发展历程中线路里程与货物运输量的发展变化,提出对交通基础设施投资宏观结构的启示,结合运输化理论,分析交通基础设施投资宏观结构的演化,并提出初步运输化阶段交通基础设施投资战略的动态选择模型,为从战略选择角度分析交通基础设施投资比例提供研究思路。(3)交通基础设施投资的地区结构规划运用区域经济增长模型和信息熵理论,建立考虑公平约束的多阶段交通基础设施投资的地区结构规划模型,并以京津冀地区为例进行实证研究。探索用定量方法描述交通基础设施投资的地区公平性,提出在交通基础设施投资分配中一种兼顾效率与公平的模型方法,为交通基础设施投资的地区结构规划提供理论依据和决策参考。(4)考虑投资约束的含有多种运输方式的多阶段交通基础设施网络设计考虑到在不同需求环境下,各种运输方式的技术经济特征变化很大,甚至会出现比较优势的逆转,将交通基础设施投资的运输方式结构规划问题转化为考虑投资约束的含有多种运输方式的交通基础设施网络设计问题。建立动态需求环境下多阶段综合交通网络设计的随机双层规划模型。上层规划为在资金预算约束下实现所有需求情景下消费者剩余(期望值模型)的最大化,下层规划在上层规划的网络投资决策下,考虑了多种运输方式的协作、流量均衡和能力负荷约束,实现每种需求情景下的所有时期、所有需求类型的消费者剩余最大化。与以往的研究相比,该模型能够同时优化综合交通网络的最终形态及其建设时序,既考虑了各年度交通基础设施建设与客货运输需求的协调发展,又体现了运输方式间的协作与平衡发展,模型更贴近实际,适应性更广基于投资规模视角研究动态环境下交通基础设施结构的发展规划问题,可量化交通基础设施的宏观结构、地区结构和运输方式结构的比例关系,为研究确定综合交通网络规模、协调地区间交通基础设施发展、发挥各种运输方式技术经济特征和交通系统整体效率提供理论与方法支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 Transport infrastructure investment, as a specific form of development planning of transport infrastructure structure, is the determinant and great driving force of transport infrastructure structure evolution, which directly affects the construction, structure and layout of transport infrastructure. To study the development planning of transport infrastructure structure based on investment scale, can unify the quantitative descriptions of transport infrastructure increment in different periods, regions and transportation modes, and facilitate the selection of quantitative methods to deepen the study of proportional relationships of transport infrastructure at different levels, which can provide a decision-making perspective for development planning of transport infrastructure structure.The study of development planning of transport infrastructure structure based on investment scale can be divided into three levels. The macro-level explores the relationship and adaptability between transport infrastructure investment and social and economic development. The meso-level studies the regional structure problem reflecting the allocation of transport infrastructure investment in regions and transportation modes structure problem reflecting the proportional relationships of network scale and capacities. The micro-level refers to regional transport infrastructure investment allocation between urban and rural, city transport infrastructure investment allocation among various transportation modes and transport infrastructure investment proportion in all aspects of one transportation mode. In order to study the macro-structure, regional structure and transportation modes structure of transport infrastructure investment, this dissertation uses qualitative analysis and decision-making model of transport infrastructure investment scale and optimization models and quantitative methods of investment allocation.With integration of macroeconomics, development economics, transport economics, operations research, transport development theory, optimal control theory, information entropy theory and both qualitative analysis and quantitative method, this dissertation studies the theory and methodology of development planning of transport infrastructure structure based on investment scale, whose feasibility and validity are verified by real and numerical examples. The following are the main content and conclusions of this dissertation.(1) The theoretical basis of development planning of transport infrastructure structure This dissertation explains the related concepts, such as transport infrastructure structure, development planning, dynamic environment, investment and capital stock, analyses the relationships of investment and development planning, investment and transport infrastructure structure, investment and transport demand structure, and summarizes the principles of development planning of transport infrastructure structure. On this basis, this dissertation proposes a number of research issues in macro, meso and microscopic levels of the development planning of transport infrastructure structure based on investment scale.(2) The macro-structure of transport infrastructure investmentBy analyzing the development and changes of the line mileage and freight transport volume of U.S. rail infrastructure, this dissertation proposes the enlightenment to transport infrastructure investment macro-structure. According to the enlightenment and transport development theory, this dissertation analyses the evolution of transport infrastructure investment macro-structure and proposes a dynamic strategy choice model of transport infrastructure investment in preliminary stage of transport development, which provides insights into analysis of transport infrastructure investment ratio from the view of strategic choice.(3) The regional structure planning of transport infrastructure investmentBased on the regional economic growth model and the information entropy theory, this dissertation establishes a multi-stage planning model of regional transport infrastructure investment allocation, which consider constraints of equity, and takes Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei province as an example. This dissertation uses quantitative method to describe the equity of regional transport infrastructure investment, proposes a model for transport infrastructure investment allocation, which takes into account the efficiency and equity of investment and provides a theoretical basis and decision-making aid for regional structure planning of transport infrastructure investment.(4) The transport infrastructure network design considering transportation modes and investment constraintsUnder different demand environments, the technical and economic characteristics of various transportation modes change dramatically and there may even be a reversal of comparative advantage. This dissertation discusses the design problem of transport infrastructure network which contains transportation modes and investment constraints in order to plan transportation modes structure of transport infrastructure investment. This dissertation establishes a multi-period bi-level programming model for comprehensive transport network design under dynamic demand environment. The upper level problem is to maximize the consumer surplus of all demand scenarios with budget constraint; while under the network investment decisions of the upper level problem, the lower level problem is to maximize the consumer surplus of every demand scenario considering the collaboration of transportation modes, traffic load balancing and capacity constraints. Compared with the previous research, the model can optimize the final form of comprehensive transport network and construction timing simultaneously, consider all annual coordination between transportation infrastructure construction and transport demand, reflect the cooperation and balanced development of transportation modes, which is closer to the real and has wider adaptabilities.Study of the development planning of transport infrastructure structure under dynamic environment based on investment scale, can quantify the proportional relationships of transport infrastructure structure in macro-structure, regional structure and transportation modes structure, which provides the theory and methodology support for studying and determining the comprehensive transport network scale, coordinating the regional transport infrastructure development and exerting the technical and economic characteristics of transportation modes and the whole efficiency of transport system.更多还原