【作者】 刘雅然；

【导师】 张培刚； 徐长生；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 西方经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 发展中国家在经济起飞的初期,从金融部门的改革开始,探索适合本国金融市场自由化的道路。作为金融市场自由化的重要价格指标,利率水平也最终要实现市场化。对于中国的利率市场化,金融部门的改革首先引起人们的重视。中国金融分割的现状——国有经济和国有银行、部分非国有经济如集体经济与地方政府金融支持、部分非国有经济与民间金融市场,造成了资金利用效率低下、资源配置效率不高的问题。关于中国利率市场自由化的研究,不少是从路径选择、银行体系风险管理等政策考虑入手的,对于利率市场化影响因素及其效应进行度量和检验的比较少。本文则试图从这些视角作初步研究。金融自由化需要同一国的经济发展水平、政府财政状况、资本积累的程度相联系。紧密围绕中国开放经济的实践,我们将金融自由化放到一个全球的视野中来。利率市场化进程和利率政策的效应有紧密联系。不仅利率市场化影响了利率政策的效应,利率政策的效应也对利率市场化进程有着重要影响。本文首先对利率市场化改革与利率政策效应的理论进行回顾,总结了世界各国利率市场化的成功经验和实践,并进一步分析中国利率市场化进程的实际情况和阻碍因素并进行预期将来可能的进展。然后分析中国利率传导机制,并采用大量的经济时间序列数据和要素增强型向量自回归模型对利率与宏观经济变量的相关性进行实证分析。最后从利率市场化对货币、信贷和投资影响的三个角度,分析中国利率市场化和利率政策的效应。总结美国等国家和地区的利率市场化实践所得的经验教训是：采取渐进式改革可以避免经济出现大的波动；金融开放会提高系统风险,需要加强监管控制；利率市场化要有同步的财政政策支持和比较稳定的宏观经济环境；要建设与利率市场化配套的制度,注重利率市场化的顺序。中国的利率市场化改革的理论依据是,在整个金融体系的“金融约束”发展过程,通过民间经济部门、民间金融部门的流量发展推动国有经济部门、国有金融部门的存量改革。中国利率市场化进程曲折的原因在于：金融部门角色演变跟不上经济结构变化的发展、金融部门和企业间不正常的借贷关系和金融监管的错位导致“贷款设租”。现阶段中国利率政策对于物价的调控还并不成熟但是逐渐有效,对货币供给量的影响也在逐渐增强,这也说明利率正进一步发挥价格工具的作用。由于长期的汇率管制,利率市场化对于汇率冲击具有逆周期性,利率的正向冲击在后一期中逐渐减少到为零,反映出金融市场投资非理性在逐渐减弱。中国利率市场化的改革不可能一蹴而就,需要逐步总结利率市场化的经验和成果,稳步扎实推进利率市场化进程。为了进一步完善金融产品的市场化定价从而发挥利率的调节作用,要充分利用征信体系、项目评估报告等方式确定客户给银行带来的收益、信用风险、借贷期限、风险大小、筹资成本、营运成本、同行业竞争等各个方面的信息,实现金融产品的合理定价,建立稳健的定价体系,从而控制银行风险。另一方面,金融监管部门应逐步放开对信贷方面的控制,加快相关监督法规法制的建设,建立完善的金融市场监管法律体系,为利率市场化提供良好的法律支持。此外,建立科学合理的社会信用制度,强化信用,提高违约成本,加强对企业的监管并健全激励和约束机制。要逐步完善证券市场,建立理性的证券交易市场,防止过多的非理性投资行为和违背市场原则的交易行为发生。最后,扩大汇率浮动范围,使得汇率浮动有效地吸收外部经济包括外资的大规模流入流出带来的冲击,帮助实现调控经济增速和稳定市场的双重目的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Emerging developing countries in the early stage of economic take-off are beginning to explore the country’s financial market liberalization from the financial sector reforms., As an important price indices, interest rates are ultimately set to achieve financial market liberalization. For China, financial sector reform first attracted our attention. China’s financial division-the state-owned economy and the state-owned banks, some non-state economy, such as collective economy and local government financial support, some non-state economy and the private financial markets, results in inefficient capital resource allocation. Many of China’s market research on interest rate liberalization start from the path selection, risk management, banking system, policy considerations. However, relatively rare literatures pay attention to measuring interest rates and market factors effectiveness. This article attempts a preliminary study from these perspectives.Financial liberalization need to co-operate with the same level of economic development, the financial position of the government or state-owned enterprises, the degree of capital accumulation. Focusing on the practice of China’s opening economy, we will put a global perspective on financial liberalization. Interest rate market and the effectiveness of interest rate policy are closely linked because of direct impacts. Not only the interest rate market affects the effectiveness of interest rate policies, but also the latter has an important impact in the former.This article firstly reviews theories of financial liberalization and effects of interest rate policy, summarizes experiences of financial liberalization in U.S. and some other countries and districts, and further analyzes the reality and obstacles of financial liberalization in China and predicting the future of possible progresses in such process. And then we analyze the transmission mechanization of interest rate in China by facilitating numerous time series data and Factor Augmenting Vector Autoregression Model, analyzing the relationships between interest rate and macroeconomic variables. At last, we analyze the interest rate liberalization and its effects from aspects of monetary, loan and investment.By summarizing experiences of interest rate liberalization in U.S. and other countries and districts, we found that, gradual reform will avoid sharp fluctuations in the economy. Financial liberalization would increase the system risk, which means financial regulation is necessary. Financial liberalization needs the support of fiscal policy and stable macroeconomic environment. Related institution with interest rate liberalization would be needed and cooperate with proper terms of interest rate liberalization.Interest rate liberalization in China is based on the theory of financial restriction in emerging countries. By flows development of private economies and private financial department, state-owned economies and state-owned financial department have to take steps to adapt this change. Frustrations in interest rate liberalization in China are the results of lagging behind of financial department compared with the development of economy structure, and abnormal lending relationship between enterprises and banks and lastly the dislocation of financial regulation which leads to rent-seeking in lending market.At this stage, interest rate policy are not so mature to control prices but gradually effective in China. And its effects to money supply grow by steps. All these findings give evidence of interest rate gradually works. However, for the reason of long term regulation of exchange rate, interest rate liberalization brings about the irrational performance of financial markets. As positive impact on interest rate gradually reduced to zero after some periods, we know that irrational investments in financial markets are weakening.Interest liberalization rate in China can not be achieved at the moment, but need to gradually sum up the experience of other countries and districts, steadily push forward interest rate liberalization. In order to further improve market-based pricing of financial products, which play a role in the regulation of interest rates, we need to make full use of credit information system, project evaluation reports, the benefits to the bank customers, credit risk, lending period, the size of risk, financing costs, operating cost, competition with other aspects of information to achieve the reasonable pricing of financial products, the establishment of a stable pricing system to control bank risk, etc.. On the other hand, financial regulatory authorities should gradually liberate the credit control. Supervision and regulations are needed to speed up the relevant rule of law, as well as establishing a sound legal system, financial market regulation, interest rate liberalization for sound legal supports. In addition, we need the establishment of scientific and reasonable social credit system, credit strengthening, increasing default costs, strengthening supervision over enterprises and improving the incentive and restraint mechanisms. To gradually improve the securities market, we need to prevent excessive and irrational investment behavior contrary to the principles of market trading behavior. Finally, expanding the scope of exchange rate fluctuations is necessary. Exchange rate fluctuations make the absorption of the external economy effective, including large-scale foreign capital inflows and outflows. At last, we can achieve a dual purpose of economic growth and stabilization.更多还原