【作者】 邓春宁；

【导师】 蔡秀玲；

【作者基本信息】 福建师范大学 ， 西方经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 扩大内需,关键在于增强消费需求；扩大城乡居民消费,根本在于经济的平稳较快发展,分配制度和社会保障制度的改革,以及居民对未来确定性预期的增强。“十二五”规划纲要提出,要“建立扩大消费需求的长效机制。把扩大消费需求作为扩大内需的战略重点。”显然,在经济转轨时期和后危机时代,有效缓解居民对未来不确定性因素的担忧,不断提升城乡居民的购买力和预期消费信心,对于增加居民消费支出,进而保持经济平稳较快发展具有重要意义。本文结合马克思经济学的消费理论,在全面梳理西方经济学关于确定性消费理论向不确定性消费理论演变的基础上,从不确定性视阈分析了20世纪90年代以来中国城乡居民的消费需求特点及城乡居民消费行为的制约因素。当然,研究中国居民消费行为应立足于居民赖以生存和发展的制度环境和经济环境。由此,在国内外经济复苏仍存在诸多不确定性因素的背景下,本文围绕经济转轨时期的制度不确定性和后危机时代的市场不确定性,借鉴不确定性消费理论和数学模型,深刻剖析了当前我国城乡居民消费过程中所面临的诸多不确定性因素,以及不确定性预期对我国城乡居民消费需求的影响程度和变化趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 Expanding the domestic demand, the key is to enhance consumer demand. Expanding urban and rural residents’demand, the key is to maintain steady and rapid economic development, reform distribution system and the social security system, and strengthen residents’certain expectations to revenues. In 2011, the 1025 planning decides to establish and expand consumer demand of long-effect mechanism, and expand consumer demand for expanding domestic demand. Clearly, it’s great significance that effectively alleviating residents’concerns about future uncertainties, continuously improving the purchasing power and the expected consumer confidence of urban and rural residents would increase the consumer spending, so as to maintain stable and rapid development of economy in the economic transition period and post-crisis era.With the guidance of Marxist economics theory, the paper not only combs fully the evolution from deterministic consumption theory to consumption theory of uncertainty, but also analyzes the consumption characteristics and restraining factors of urban and rural residents since the 1990s from the point of uncertainty. Of course, the research on consumer’s behavior should be based on the institutional and economic environment that human live and develop. In the context of economic recovery at home and abroad that still exist many uncertain factors, the paper makes empirical analysis of it that Chinese residents are facing to, and deeply reveals the extent and trend of uncertain expectation to future influencing the residents’consumption demand according to the uncertain consumption theory and the urban and rural residents’panel data of most provinces in China.更多还原