【作者】 李波；

【导师】 张俊飚；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 碳排放导致的全球气候变化已给人类社会与经济发展带来了显著的不利影响,并由此成为了各国政治、经济、社会以及科学研究等诸多领域关注的重点。实施碳减排以应对气候变化已成为国际社会共识。2009年我国已确定2020年单位国内生产总值的温室气体排放较2005年减少40-45%的目标。推进农地利用的碳减排是实现我国减排目标的重要举措,同时也是推进我国农地利用与农业可持续发展的基本前提。此外,农地利用碳减排较之其它生产活动具有更大的正外部效应,除了减少向大气中排放温室气体外,有助于提高土壤营、改良土壤结构以及改善土壤环境品质等,而由农地资源环境的改善又能带来较大的环境正外部效应。更为重要的是作为其它国民经济部门活动的基础和前提,农地资源环境的优化利用,又是实现社会经济可持续发展的重要保障。因此,基于环境经济学视角来定量测算并分析农地利用碳排放的增长规律及经济动因,进而科学提出促进碳减排的对策建议,对于现实中我国农地碳减排政策制定与实施具有重要的理论和实践参考意义。本论文基于农户行为、环境外部性等重要理论,利用调查分析法、logit模型、EKC、脱钩理论、Kaya恒等式等多种统计与计量分析方法对农地利用碳排放及减排政策进行定性和定量研究。分析微观农户农地利用与保护现状以及碳行为方式的影响因素,揭示了农地利用碳排放的微观机理；科学构建农地利用碳排放测算体系,测算并把握碳排放历史规律和空间特征,对碳排放影响因素进行分解研究,从定量上明确碳排放驱动机制和经济动因；从减排和增汇两个方面归纳分析碳减排技术及特征,并对技术需求影响因素进行微观实证检验。最后在借鉴国外经验的基础上合理构建了农地利用碳减排的政策体系。本论文研究内容主要分为：文献综述与农地资源环境现状分析(第1、2章)、农地利用的微观机理分析(第3章)、农地利用碳排放的测算与驱动因素分析(第4、5、6章)、农地利用碳减排技术与政策体系构建(第7、8、9章)共四大部分。通过研究,主要形成了以下结论：(1)总体把握我国农地资源与环境的时空特征,并定量分析农地资源环境与经济增长的耦合关系。研究发现,耕地面积呈现持续下降态势；林地、园地面积保持微弱的增长态势；牧草地面积呈现下降态势；2000-2008年间导致耕地减少的因素大小依次为生态退耕、建设占用、农业结构调整、灾毁耕地。但从发展趋势来看,建设占用占耕地减少的比重近年来迅速增长,远高于其它3类因素。从2008年区域耕地变动来看,北京、天津、上海等6省(市)人均耕地面积低于国际警戒线。河北、山西、内蒙古等19省(市)为耕地面积为净增加,而其它12省(市)为净减少,尤其上海、广东等发达省市净减少量最大。与此同时,由化肥、农药、农膜等导致的农地生态环境污染也日趋严重。农地环境质量与农业经济增长的动态耦合分析发现：1985～2008年我国农业经济增长与农地生态环境之间是一种胁迫发展关系,但从趋势来看其胁迫性逐年弱化。(2)从微观层面调查分析农户农地利用与保护现状并模型检验农户农地利用碳行为方式的影响因素,结果发现,农户化肥、农药平均支出分别为324.25、145.71元/亩,其它方面的生产性投入为556.92元/亩；务工和农业收入构成了农民的收入主体,收入来源多元化趋势较为明显；农户对农地保护支出的响应较高,但对不同类型农地保护的积极性存在一定的差异性；农户希望政府能对农地保护行为进行补贴,但针对不同类型农地的期望补偿标准存在差异；武汉市、潜江市、宜昌市、天门市典型地区保护支付和补偿意愿差异明显；对农户碳行为方式的影响因素检验发现,农地特征对农户农地利用碳方式影响显著；年龄对化肥使用的碳方式影响显著,对农药、废弃物处理的碳方式影响不显著；生产特征仅对化肥使用碳方式影响显著,对农药、废弃物处理的碳方式影响不显著；农地保护认知对化肥和农药使用碳方式影响显著,对废弃物处理的碳方式影响不显著；是否具有专业技能对农药、废弃物处理的碳方式影响显著,对化肥使用的碳方式影响不显著；农地经营规模对化肥、农药使用碳方式影响显著,对废弃物处理的碳方式影响不显著。(3)在科学构建农地利用碳排放体系的基础上,测算并分析了我国1993～2008年农地利用碳排放情况。研究表明,我国农地利用的碳排放呈现四阶段上升态势,碳排放总量和强度年均增长率分别为4.08%、2.38%。碳排放总量较高地区主要集中在农业大省,强度较高地区主要集中在发达城市、东部沿海发达省份和中部农业大省。由于资源禀赋不同,林地碳汇区域差异较大。草地碳汇主要集中在内蒙古、西藏、新疆、青海、四川、甘肃6省,6省合计占全国草地碳汇总量的94.65%；2001-2008年生态退耕年均碳减排率45.16%,建设占用所引发碳排放年均递增2.23%；生态退耕碳汇效应最为突出的地区是河北、建设占用耕地导致碳排放效应最为显著的省份是江苏；1991-2008年主要农作物碳汇呈现三阶段的“蝙蝠型”波动变化的特征；海南、宁夏、上海等10省(市)为农地利用净碳排放,主要集中在华中地区和华北地区。(4)基于协整、EKC和脱钩理论,探究了农地利用碳排放与经济发展的长期和短期变动关系。结果表明,人均GDP和总碳排放强度、化肥、农药、农膜、柴油、翻耕等5类碳源的排放强度量存在协整关系；人均GDP变化与总碳排放强度、化肥、柴油、翻耕碳排放强度变化具有双向因果关系,而与农药、农膜排放强度变化仅具有单向的因果关系。从EKC验证发现,总碳排放强度与人均GDP为N型曲线,化肥、柴油、翻耕碳排放强度与人均GDP分别呈现倒“N”型、“N”型、倒“N”型曲线关系,而农药、农膜碳排放强度与人均GDP之间不存在线性关系。从短期关系来看,农地利用碳排放与经济发展以扩张连接和扩张负脱钩为主。其中江苏、湖北、湖南以强脱钩、弱脱钩、扩张连接为主；山东、广西以强脱钩、弱脱钩为主；黑龙江、河南、河北等6省多种弹性特征并存。(5)基于Kaya恒等式和对数平均D式指数,定量分解了农地利用碳排放的影响因素,研究发现,效率、结构、劳动力规模因素一定程度上抑制了碳排放,分别累计贡献12.95%、26.62%、33.29%的碳减排。农业经济发展则成为了碳排放增加的最主要因素,累计产生154.94%的碳增量。从区域来看,所有省(市)农业经济发展均导致碳增量；浙江、安徽、海南等9省(市)效率因素导致碳增量,其它22省(市)效率因素则实现一定程度的碳减排；上海、湖南、甘肃等3省(市)结构因素导致碳增量,其它28省(市)结构因素则实现一定程度的碳减排；黑龙江、辽宁、广东等10省(市)劳动力规模因素导致碳增量,其它21省(市)劳动力规模则实现一定程度的碳减排。(6)归纳分析农地利用主要碳减排技术及特征,并从微观农户视角分析并检验了农户技术需求的影响因素。研究认为,农地利用碳减排技术主要有两方面,一是基于耕地利用的减排技术,二是基于林地和草地的增汇技术。在农户技术需求的基本假设和理论分析的基础上,调查分析与实证检验发现,农户科技需求强度最高为化肥农药的使用、环境污染人畜粪便处理知识、种植养殖技术三项农业技术。进一步模型检验发现,性别仅对种植养殖技术的需求影响显著,受教育程度仅对环境污染和人畜粪便处理知识需求影响显著,家庭收入、是否参加培训、土地禀赋因素与三项农业技术需求呈现显著正相关,兼业化程度与种植技术或养殖技术服务需求成反比,而与环境污染、人畜粪便处理知识服务需求成正比。(7)在借鉴国外农地利用碳减排经验的基础上,构建农地利用碳减排政策体系。提出碳减排政策工具主要包括行政管制、财政手段等,具体包括：政府管制、碳排放税、财政补贴、碳排放交易、自愿减排协议等；我国农地利用减排应以结构减排为重点、能源减排为关键、技术减排为核心、政策减排为动力、自愿减排为趋势等方面的原则,最后基于论文研究,从宣传、政策扶持、技术推广、碳交易市场建设等方面提出了促进我国农地利用碳减排的政策建议。本研究可能的创新之处在于：(1)关于碳排放问题的研究相对较多,但主要集中在工业、能源等领域及自然科学研究中的小范围精确实验等方面,而关于农地碳排放的测评及影响因素的研究相对较少。本研究基于环境经济学的视角来定量测算并分析农地利用碳排放的增长规律及经济动因问题,体现了研究视角上的新颖性。(2)本研究从微观视野出发,在实证分析农户农地利用碳行为方式关键影响因素的基础上,构建了农地利用碳排放的测算体系,分析并归纳出我国农地利用碳排放的历史增长规律和空间差异特征,计量并找出了碳排放与经济发展的长期与短期变动关系,分解了效率、结构等影响因素的影响性质和累计效应,体现了研究内容上的创新性。(3)研究中,本文将协整、EKC、Kaya等理论和模型方法,延伸并应用到农地利用碳排放及驱动因素的分析上,得出了关于农地利用碳排放增长规律和区域特征、与经济增长的因果关系和脱钩弹性等一系列具有重要价值的研究结论,体现了研究结论上的创新。更多还原

【Abstract】 Global climate change caused by carbon emissions has brought adverse impacts significantly to the human society and economic development which has become the major issues in world politics, economic and sciences fields. Reducing carbon emission has become the international social consensus in response to climate change. China has determined the target to reduce emission load of greenhouse gases by 40-45% in 2020 compared with 2005. Promoting the reduction of carbon emission and the utilization of agricultural land in China plays an important role to realize the target, and it is also the basic premise of agricultural land utilization and agricultural sustainable development. Agricultural land utilization behavior is the important emission source of greenhouse gases, but is also vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Carbon emissions of agricultural land utilization has bigger external effects than other production activities, sending out less greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, increasing soil nutrition, and improving soil structure or environmental quality. And environmental external effects caused by environmental improvements of agricultural land resource should play a positive role. Besides, agricultural production is the basis and premise of other agricultural production department activities to national economy. Optimal utilization of agricultural resources environment would be the important security condition to realize sustainable development of agricultural economy. Therefore, analyzing such characteristics of carbon emissions as growth mechanism and policy has great theoretical and practical references to reduce agricultural land emission.Thus, based on farmers’decision-making behavior and environmental externality theories, the article uses many kinds of statistics and measurement analysis methods such as survey analysis, Logit model, EKC theory, Decoupling theory, Kaya identical equation to carry out qualitative analysis and quantitative study on carbon emissions of agricultural land utilization and emission-reduced policies. Analyzing agricultural land utilization and protection status quo of microscopic farmers as well as effecting factors of carbon behaviors reveals the carbon emissions microstructure of agricultural land utilization. The author tries to construct carbon emissions measure system of agricultural land utilization, estimating agricultural land history evolution rule and spatial characteristics of carbon emissions scientifically, decomposing all the factors of carbon emissions, making driving mechanism and economic reason of carbon emissions clear in quantity. Concluding and analyzing carbon emission-reduced technology and features from the two aspects of cutting carbon emissions and increase remit; and checking out effecting factors of technology micro-empirical inspection demands. Finally, the essay constructs policy system reasonably on carbon emission-reduced of agricultural land utilization based on the experience abroad. This paper is mainly divided into four aspects:literature review and analysis of the status of agricultural land resources environment (chapter 1 and 2), the microscopic mechanism analysis of agricultural land utilization (chapter 3), calculation on carbon emissions and analysis on driving factor of agricultural land utilization (chapter 4, 5 and 6), carbon emission-reduced technology of agricultural land utilization and policy system structure (chapter 7,8 and 9). Through the study, the following conclusion can be formed:(1) Generalizing Chinese agricultural land resources and environmental space-time characteristics, and analyzing the coupling relationship between agricultural land resources and environment and economic growth quantitatively, the paper finds that cultivated land area continued to decline, forest land and garden area remained weak growth, grass land area turned out to be downward trend. According to the impact loading from 2000 to 2008, factors which made agricultural land area shrink are sorted into ecological restoration, construction occupancy, agricultural structure adjustment, disaster destroyed arable land. But from the development trend, the proportion of construction occupancy in total reduced agricultural land area showed a rapid growth in recent years which is higher than other three factors. From the aspect of the cultivated land change various regions in 2008, per capita cultivated land area of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, etc for 6 provinces (municipalities) are below the FAO definitive cordon-0.8 mu. Per capita cultivated land area of Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, etc for 19 provinces (municipalities) are net increase, but are net decrease in other 12 provinces (municipalities), especially, net decrease load is highest in developed provinces (municipalities) such as Shanghai and Guangdong. Meanwhile, ecological environmental pollution caused by chemical fertilizer, pesticides and agricultural film is getting more serious. The result of dynamic coupling analysis on agricultural land environmental quality and agricultural economic growth shows, agricultural economic growth and agricultural land environmental quality turn out to be the stress development correlation, but its coercive trend has been weakened year by year.(2) Microcosmic analyzing farmers’agricultural land utilization and protection status, and model testing carbon behavior effecting factors of farmers’agricultural land utilization, we find each average cost of farmers’chemical and fertilizers is 324.25 and 145.71 yuan/mu, other production input is 556.92 yuan/mu. Outdoor employ income and agricultural income constitute the main part of farmers’ income. Source of income multiplication tendency was quite obvious. Farmers have more response to agricultural land protection cost, but for different types of agricultural land protection, there are certain initiative differences. Farmers want the government to act on their land conservation subsidy, but they expect different compensation standard among different kinds of agricultural land. Protection payments and compensation intension are obviously different in typical areas, such as Wuhan, Qianjiang, Yichang, and Tianmen. Based on the test on farmers’carbon behaviors, we find agricultural land characteristic does remarkable effect to farmers’agricultural land utilization; age does obvious effect to carbon way of chemical fertilizer, but does weak effect to carbon ways of pesticides and wastes; agricultural land protection cognition did obvious effect to carbon ways of chemical fertilizer and pesticides utilization, but does weak effect to wastes dispose; professional skills do prominent effect to carbon ways of pesticides and wastes dispose, but do weak effect to carbon way of chemical fertilizer utilization; agricultural land scale of operation does remarkable effect to carbon ways of chemical fertilizer and pesticides, but does weak effect to carbon way of waste dispose.(3) Based on carbon emissions system of agricultural land utilization, and emission of agricultural land utilization from year 1993 to 2008 in China, the paper finds the agricultural carbon emission area is in the gradual upward trend of four stages. The average annual growth rate of agriculture carbon emissions is 4.08%, while the average annual growth rate of intensity is 2.38%. Higher carbon emission areas intensively distribute in the major provinces of agriculture, and the higher carbon emission intensity areas are mainly located in the developed cities, eastern coastal provinces and the central major provinces of agriculture. Because of different resource natural endowment, carbon sinks spatial variation of forest land is different. Carbon emission sinks of grassland intensively distribute in Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu and Sichuan, the 6 provinces account for 94.65 of total grass carbon sink. Annual carbon emissions rate of ecological restoration is 45.16. Carbon emissions load caused by construction is annual average increase by 2.23. The most outstanding area of ecological restoration carbon absorbing effect is Hebei. The marked area of carbon emission effect caused by construction land is Jiangsu. Characteristics of crops carbon sinks present phase 3 "bat type" fluctuation from year 1991 to 2008. Hainan, Ningxia, Shanghai, and other 10 provinces and cities in the central China and north China send net carbon emissions.(4) Research on variation correlation between carbon emissions of agricultural land utilization and economic development,based on EKC and decoupling theory, shows that per capita GDP and whole emission intension have co-integration relationship with five carbon sources such as chemical fertilizers, pesticides, films, diesel and plough. Variation of per capita GDP is with two-way causality with whole emission intension, chemical fertilizers, diesel using and plough, but is with one-way causality with pesticides and film emissions. Based on EKC test, whole emission intension does exist N-shaped curve relation with per capita GDP; carbon emission intension of chemical fertilizers, diesel and plough each does exist N-shaped, N-shaped, backward N-shaped relation with per capita GDP; but carbon emission intension of pesticides and films each does not exist linear relation with per capita GDP. Judging from short-term relation, carbon emission of agricultural land utilization and economic development show a weak decoupling, expansion connection and expansion negative decoupling, but expansion connection and expansion negative decoupling are primary trends. Among them, the three provinces of Jiangsu, Hubei, and Hunan did exist strong decoupling, weak decoupling, expansion connection primarily; Shandong and Guangxi do exist strong decoupling and two weak decoupling primarily; Heilongjiang, Henan, Hebei and etc 6 provinces do have various elastic characteristics coexist.(5) Based on Kaya carbon emissions identical equation and Logarithmic mean D type index, discomposing effecting factors of agricultural carbon emission, the result shows the factors of efficiency, structure and labor scale can restrain carbon emission, and each accumulative carbon emission-reduced load of the three factors decreased by 12.95%、26.62%、33.29%. In contrast, agricultural economic development played an active role in agricultural carbon emission, which increased 154.94% carbon emission load. Judging from the area, agricultural economy development resulted in increasing carbon emission in all provinces (municipalities); Efficiency factor resulted in increasing carbon emission in the areas of Zhejiang. Anhui, Hainan and etc 9 provinces, while the other 22 provinces (municipalities) achieve carbon emission-reduced; Structural factors resulted in increasing carbon emission in the areas of Shanghai, Hunan, Gansu provinces (municipalities), while the other 28 provinces (municipalities) achieve carbon emission-reduced; Labor scale factor resulted in increasing carbon emission in the areas of Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Guangdong and etc 10 provinces (municipalities), while the other 21 provinces (municipalities) achieve carbon emission-reduced.(6) The paper analyzed the main types and characteristics carbon emission-reduced of the technology of agricultural land, and tested effecting factors of farmers’technology demand from microscopic farmer angle. We finds two aspects of carbon emission-reduced technology of agricultural land utilization:one based on carbon emission-reduced technology of cultivated land utilization, the other one based on carbon emission-increased technology of forest and grass land. With the basic assumptions and theoretical analysis on farmers’ technology demand, through investigation and empirical test, the paper finds technologies farmer need most are the following three technologies: chemical fertilizers utilization, treatment knowledge of environmental pollution and human-animal feces, planting and breeding techniques. Moreover, based on model test, we find that gender did significant effects on planting and breeding techniques needs; educational attainment did significant effects on treatment knowledge of environmental pollution and human-animal feces; family income, whether participate in training or not and land natural endowment factor did remarkable positive correlation with three agricultural technology needs; parergon level is in contrast to planting technology or breeding technology service needs; and parergon level is in direct proportion to treatment knowledge of environmental pollution and human-animal feces.(7) Based on the carbon emission-reduced experiences of agricultural land utilization in foreign countries, we construct carbon emission-reduced policy system of agricultural land utilization and put forward China’s agricultural carbon emission-reduced policy instruments, which include administrative control, financial means, etc. Specific include: government control, carbon tax, financial subsidies, carbon emissions trading, voluntary emissions agreement, etc. During the process of China’s agricultural utilization, it should follow several principles:Structural emission-reduction as the key point, energy emission-reduction as the crux, technology for emission-reduction as the core, policies for voluntary emission-reduction as. the dynamic, etc. Finally, policy system of China’s agricultural carbon emission-reduced is constructed, in terms of Propaganda, policy support, technical promotion, carbon trading market, etc.This research may put forwatd following innovation points:(1)The research on the carbon emissions questions are relatively rich, but they mainly concentrated in small scale accurate experiment in industrial, energy fields and natural science. And there is less research on evaluation of agricultural land carbon emissions and effect factors. This study shows novelty of research perspect, based on the environmental economics perspective, estimating and ananlyzing questions quantitatively about carbon emissions growth rule and economic motivation from the environmental economics perspective.(2)Starting from the micro perspective, the research constructs calculation sysytem on carbon emission-reduced of agricultural land utilization innovatively, which based on the empirical analysis about key factors of farmers’carbon behavior of agricultural land utilization. Besides, the research analyzes and concludes carbon emissions historical growth rule and space difference characteristics of agricultural land utilization in China, measures and finds out the changes in short and long term relationship between carbon emissions and economic development, decomposes the influence the properties and cumulative effect of effedcting factors such as efficiency and structure. Above all, the research shows novelty of research content.(3)This article uses such theories and model methods as cointegration, EKC, Kaya theory and model method, applying them in research of carbon emissions and agricultural land utilization. We drew a series of important value research conclusion:such as carbon emissions growth rule and regional characteristics of agricultural land utilization, and causality of economic growth and decoupling flexibility, and so on. All of these reflect research conclusion innovation.更多还原