【作者】 龚琦；

【导师】 王雅鹏；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 随着经济的发展和科学技术的进步,我国农业发生了巨大改变。以采用手工工具和畜力农具为特征的传统农业,逐渐向以广泛应用现代科学技术、现代工业提供的生产资料和科学管理方法为特征的现代农业转变。这一转变虽然使我国农业劳动生产率不断提高,农业生产力水平达到前所未有的高度,农产品产量大幅度增长,但转变过程中片面追求经济效益、忽视生态保护的行为,使我国湖泊资源环境遭受到了巨大损害和破坏,数量面积剧减、水质恶化日益严重,以致湖泊蓄洪、灌溉、供水、气候调节等生态和经济功能减弱,对社会经济发展特别是农业的可持续发展形成了极大制约。据此,我们必须认真审视农业发展与湖泊资源环境的关系,从农业层面探讨湖泊资源环境保护的对策。本文以农业经济学、微观经济学、发展经济学、资源与环境经济学、计量经济学、数理经济学等相关原理和分析框架为基础,采用理论与实证、定性与定量相结合的方法,对我国湖泊流域水污染和农业污染控制问题进行了研究。第一,客观分析湖泊生态环境与农业污染的关系,把握我国湖泊流域的农业污染状况。第二,对农业污染产生的经济学根源进行理论分析,并从农业部门、政府政策和宏观社会经济发展层面对我国农业污染产生和加剧的具体原因进行了分析。第三,利用1999-2008年中国31个省份的面板数据,通过面板单位根检验、面板协整检验和面板回归估计,实证检验了农业产业结构调整及其他社会经济因素对我国及我国不同区域农业污染的影响。第四,归纳总结国外农业水污染治理的成功经验,并借鉴提出我国农业水污染控制的措施建议。第五,在导致农业污染加剧的关键因素为农业产业结构调整的区域,选择湖泊流域作为典型案例,建立基于湖泊水污染控制的农业产业结构多目标优化模型,进行典型湖泊流域农业产业结构的优化设计,并提出推进农业产业结构优化的综合保障措施建议。主要研究结论如下：第一,湖泊资源以其多重生态和经济功能,在我国的社会经济发展中发挥着巨大的作用。但由于农业、工业、生活污染的不断输入,湖泊水体污染情况非常严重,而农业污染是湖泊水污染的主要来源。我国东、中、西部主要湖泊流域的农业污染都非常严重,且呈现持续增加的态势,对湖泊水体的威胁日益加剧。第二,农业污染产生的经济学根源是市场失灵和政府失灵。农业污染产生的市场失灵是由农业环境的公共物品属性、农业生产的负外部效应、农业环境的产权不确定和农业环境利用的信息不对称引起的；农业污染的政府失灵是由政府认识不足、决策局限、政策目标单一,存在忽视农业环境保护和农业污染控制的现象,以及农业环境管理的低效率引起的。我国农业污染产生和加剧的具体原因主要可以归结为：农业产业结构调整中牧业产值比重的增加、粮食作物种植面积比重的下降,农民收入增长,农业国际贸易程度的提高,人口增长,工业化和城市化推进中的耕地减少、农业劳动力减少,以及农业污染管控资金不足、农业污染管控技术推广乏力、农业污染管控法律缺失、农业污染管控的机构机制不健全。第三,从全国层面来看,化肥施用强度会随着粮食种植比重的上升而降低,随着农民人均纯收入、单位种植面积人口数量的增长而提高,但农资价格、单位种植面积种植业劳动力的变化对化肥施用强度的影响不显著；畜禽粪尿密度会随着牧业产值比重、农民人均纯收入、单位种植面积人口数量、单位种植面积一产劳动力数量的增加而上升,随着农资价格的上涨而降低。从区域层面来看,粮食种植比重的变化仅对中南、西北、西南3个区域的化肥施用强度具有显著负向影响；牧业产值比重的变化仅对中南和西南2个区域的畜禽粪尿密度具有显著正向影响；其他因素对不同区域农业污染的影响具有较大差异。第四,对日本、美国和欧盟的农业水污染治理在法律制度、对策措施、污染监测和公众参与、管理机构和机制等方面的经验进行了总结。借鉴其成功经验,提出了我国农业水污染治理的对策建议。主要包括：开展农业产业结构优化调整工作、积极发展生态环保型农业、加强农业技术的研发与应用、实施农业环境保护项目、发挥政府补贴的激励作用、加强环境监测和公众参与力度、建立完备的控污法律法规和管理协调机构。第五,典型案例洱海流域的水环境安全形势不容乐观,存在农业污染控制乏力的治理困境,但基于流域水污染控制的农业产业结构优化设计结果显示,在保持农业产值持续增长、农产品供给安全的前提下,可以实现农业入湖污染量消减15%的水质保护规划目标。由于流域农业产业结构优化方案的具体实施,一方面,将大大缓解流域水环境压力；另一方面,势必引发各种矛盾和问题,为此,提出了推进流域农业产业结构优化工作的综合保障措施建议,主要包括：管理组织保障、经济政策保障、技术研发与推广服务保障和农业劳动力转移服务保障。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of economy and the advance of science and technology, agriculture has witnessed a great change that traditional agriculture characterized by using hand tools and animal power is transforming into modern agriculture characterized by using means and scientific management methods provided by modern technology and industry in China. With this change, agricultural labor productivity make continuously advance, agricultural productivity reach unprecedented levels, agricultural outputs increase considerably. But the environment of lake suffered serious damage and destruction that quantity and area slash, water quality deteriorate inceasingly by one-sided pursuit of economic benefits and ignoring ecological protection during this transfer so as to weaken ecological and economic functions of lake such as flood storage, irrigation and climatic regulation, restrict development of society and economy, especially block sustainable development of agriculture. According to this, we must survey the relationship between development of agriculture and lake environment, and discuss countermeasures for environmental protection of lake on agricultural development dimension.Based on related principles and analysis frame of agricultural economics, microeconomics, development economics, resource and environmental economics, econometrics and mathematical economics, this dissertation studies the water pollution and control of agricultural pollution in China’s lake basin with the methods of theoretical and empirical analysis. Firstly, the relationship between lake eco-environment and agricultural pollution, the condition of agricultural pollution in main lake basin are analyzed objectively. Secondly, the economics reason of agricultural pollution aggravates is analyzed, furthermore, particular reasons of agricultural pollution aggravate from angles of agricultural sector, government policy and socio-economic development are analyzed. Thirdly, based on the panel data in 31 provinces (cities and municipalities) of China during 1999-2008, the relationship between agricultural pollution and its influential factors such as adjustment of agricultural Structure, farmer’s income, price of agricultural means of production, population, labor, agricultural trade, agricultural production techniques from angles of nationwide and regions are analyzed by the methods of panel unit root test, panel co-integration test and multivariate regression. Fourthly, pass on successful experience of control water pollution from agriculture in foreign country, and put forward the proposals to control water pollution from agriculture for China. Fifthly, choosing a typical lake basin in region where the key motivational factor of agricultural pollution is adjustment of agricultural structure as a case, this paper applies a multi-objective optimization model to optimize agricultural structure in this lake basin, and some comprehensive supporting measures is offered for this optimization. The main results are as follows: Firstly, ecological and economic functions of lake play important roles in development of society and economy in China. However, agricultural pollution, industrial pollution and domestic pollution cause water quality of lake to be deteriorated seriously. Main pollution source of lake is agricultural pollution. Increasing agricultural pollution has a strong impact on water quality in key lakes basin of the east, middle, west China.Secondly, market failure and government failure is economics reason of agricultural pollution aggravates. The market failure is mainly caused by public goods attributes of agricultural environment, negative external effect of agricultural production, uncertainly property rights of agricultural environment, asymmetric information of agricultural environment use. The government failure is mainly caused by losing sight of agricultural environmental protection and ineffective management of agricultural environment. Reasons of agricultural pollution aggravates could be summarized as follows:assurgent proportion of output value of animal husbandry in the total output value of agriculture, descendent proportion of planting areas for grain in the total planting areas, ascending income of farmer, expanding trade of agricultural products, increasing population, reductive cultivated land and agricultural labor, inadequate funds of agricultural pollution control, deficient technology diffusion of agricultural pollution control, lack of containment law of agricultural pollution, deficient organization and mechanism of agricultural pollution control.Thirdly, at the national level, proportion of planting areas for grain in the total planting areas has remarkable negative effect on intensity of chemical fertilizer input. Net income per capita of farmers and size of population per total planting areas has remarkable positive effect on intensity of chemical fertilizer input. Price of capital goods in the agricultural sector and quantity of crop-plantation labor force per total planting areas have no remarkable effect on intensity of chemical fertilizer input. Proportion of output value of animal husbandry in the total output value of agriculture, net income per capita of farmers, size of population per total planting areas and quantity of primary industry labor force per total planting areas have remarkable positive effect on excretion density of livestock and poultry. Price of capital goods in the agricultural sector has remarkable negative effect on excretion density of livestock and poultry. At the regional level, proportion of planting areas for grain in the total planting areas only have remarkable negative effect on intensity of chemical fertilizer input in south-central, northwest and southwest of China. Proportion of output value of animal husbandry in the total output value of agriculture only has remarkable positive effect on excretion density of livestock and poultry in south-central and southwest of China. There are obvious differences between agricultural pollution and its other influential factors in different regions.Fourthly, summarize successful experience of controlling water pollution from agriculture in Japan, American and European Union in respects of containment law of agricultural pollution, countermeasure, pollution monitoring and public participation, organization and mechanism of agricultural pollution control. On this basis, some suggestions to control water pollution from agriculture in China are put forward as follows: optimize agricultural structure, develop ecological agriculture, carry out projects of agricultural environmental protection, bring stimulation of government subsidy into full play, strengthen monitoring for pollution and enhance public participation, up build mature system of law and coordination organization of pollution control.Fifthly, situation of water environment security is tense because there are some obstacles and difficulties to control agricultural pollution in Erhai basin. However, optimization of agricultural structure based on water pollution control could achieve the water quality maintenance goals that agricultural pollutants discharge are reduced by fifteen per cent on the premise of ensuring growth of agricultural output value and supply security of agricultural products in this lake basin. Carrying the optimization program into execution what will release the water environmental pressure on the one hand, will bring contradictions and problems on the other hand. So comprehensive supporting measures include management and ganizational guarantee, economic policy guarantee, service guarantee of technology research and extension and agricultural labor force shift are offered.更多还原