【作者】 李丽；

【导师】 吴群琪；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 针对现有基于“交通需求”的公路项目经济评价理论与方法体系存在难以通过局部修正或改进予以弥补的缺陷,论文试图探索建立一套有别于目前的评价公路项目经济效益计量的理论与方法体系。公路项目经济效益从满足“运输需求”和“交通需求”两个不同角度进行核算,得出的结果就会产生差异。与交通行为相比,运输与国民经济的联系更直接,从运输需求角度研究公路项目经济效益,才能抓住公路项目给整个社会经济带来的根本效益。在这一研究角度下,论文以经济学、运输经济学、计量经济学、区域经济学等理论为研究理论基础,按以下逻辑顺序展开研究。依据公路项目具有公共性、基础性、外部性和公益性的特性,提出公路项目经济效益依据的理论基础包括消费者剩余与支付意愿理论,最优资源配置理论,外部性理论,运输需求理论,乘数理论及国民经济核算原理。公路项目经济效益产生机理分析是对公路项目经济效益来源的内在原因进行分析。公路基础设施的运营,使市场范围扩大,在此基础上,交通运输通过自然资源的开发利用、交易效率的提高、生产布局的优化、产业结构的调整等方式使资源得到优化配置,通过专业化分工、规模经济、生产成本的降低,从而提高了劳动生产率和产生规模经济,促进经济增长,带来社会总产品的增加。在基于运输需求公路项目经济效益的识别上提出,以公路项目为条件,在有效满足运输需求及资源的优化配置的基础上,而给整个社会带来的经济效益,应识别为公路项目的经济效益。目前只计量了公路项目的节约效益,忽视了产出效益,公路项目的基础性决定其根本目的在于促进国民经济的发展。进行公路项目国民经济评价,应把公路项目对整个国民经济带来的产出作为公路项目建设的决策依据。在理论基础分析的基础上,提出了降低运营成本、旅客时间节约,加速货物周转形成的资金节约等节约效益计量模型；研究了消除“有运输障碍”和满足“无运输障碍”货物运输需求带来的效益及旅客运输等产出效益的计量方法及计量模型；公路项目传递效益的计量模型。最后,通过案例分析,对论文中所提出的理论及模型进行了验证。本论文研究内容属于应用经济的范畴,在理论上进一步丰富和发展了公路项目经济评价的理论,研究成果对于提高公路建设项目决策的科学性、规范性有着理论指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the fact that current theories and system methods which are used to evaluate the economic benefits of highway projects have the deficiencies that are difficult to be amended or improved partly, this paper attempts to establish a set of new theories and system methods to evaluate the economic benefits account of highway projects. Economic benefits of highway projects can be accounted through two different perspectives:"transportation demand" and "traffic demand". The results will be different according to different perspective. Compared with the traffic behavior, the transportation is more directly related to the national economy and social development. So only through the perspective of transportation demand to study the economic benefits of highway projects, we can catch the fundamental benefits that the highway projects brought to the entire social economy. From this research viewpoint, based on economics, transport economics, econometrics, and regional economics and so on, the paper develops the study according to the following logical orders.According to publicity, elementariness, externality and the public nature of highway projects, the paper introduces that the theoretical basis of the highway projects economic benefits include the consumer surplus and willingness-to-pay theory, the optimal resource allocation theory, the externality theory, the theory of transportation demand, the multiplier theory and the principle of national accounts. Analyzing the generating mechanism of the economic benefits of highway projects is to analyze the internal reasons for the sources of economic benefits of highway projects. The operation of highway infrastructure could enlarge the market scope. On this basis, transportation enable the location of resources to be optimized by the utilization of natural resources, the improvement of transaction efficiency, the optimization of production layout and the adjustment of industrial structure. As a result, it could improve the labor productivity, result in economies of scale, promote the economic growth and bring about an increase of total social products through specialization, economies of scale, and lower production costs.With the identification of the economic benefits of highway projects based on the transportation demand, it can achieve a conclusion that the economic benefits brought to the whole society can be identified as economic efficiency, on the condition of highway projects and by meeting the transportation demand effectively and optimizing the allocation of resources. At present, the account of highway projects only includes saving efficiency, ignoring the output efficiency. The elementariness of highway projects determines that their fundamental purpose is to improve the national economy, carry out the national economic evaluation of highway projects, so the output brought to the entire national economy should be made as the decision-making basis of project constructionBased on the analysis of theoretical basis, this paper comes up with a saving efficiency econometric model which is relative to the operating costs reduction, passenger time savings, money savings by speeding up cargo turnover. Besides, it analyses the efficiency by eliminating the "Of transport barriers" and meeting the cargo transport demand of "No transport barriers" and the measurement methods and econometric models of output efficiency of passenger transportation. Then it brings up an econometric model of passing efficiency of highway projects. At last, this paper tests the theory and models that they are brought up through case studies.The study content of this paper belongs to t practical economy field, which has further enriches and develops the economic evaluation theory of highway projects. To improve the decision-making of highway construction projects more scientifically and normatively, research results of the paper have its significance.更多还原