【作者】 邹红；

【导师】 尹世杰； 王裕国；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 消费经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 中国三十多年改革开放的历程,是市场化取向的宏观经济高速增长的过程,也是居民家庭消费需求不断满足和提升的过程。经济持续增长使家庭消费水平不断提高,消费结构不断升级。与此相应,家庭的资产规模、资产结构和资产选择行为也发生了重大变化。随着我国金融市场的完善和家庭财产的增加,家庭资产选择活动与家庭生活消费越来越紧密,资产成为影响家庭消费的重要因素,家庭的跨期消费选择也对金融市场和宏观经济运行产生重要影响。经济学研究现实经济中出现的重要问题。长期以来,经济增长严重依赖投资和出口拉动的局面,导致了明显的经济结构失衡,消费需求不足成为我国经济运行相伴随的常态。如何进一步扩大消费需求,调整经济结构和增长模式,急需寻找新的突破口。家庭的消费需求和资产需求、消费结构和资产结构、资产与消费选择行为是研究我国宏观经济运行的重要微观基础,正确处理好家庭资产与消费的关系,正逐渐成为现阶段我国经济社会发展的一个重要的理论和实践问题。2005年党中央十六届五中全会明确指出“推动经济发展,改善人民生活始终是中国的中心任务”,把扩大消费需求、提高消费质量提升到了前所未有的历史高度。党的十七大报告指出：“加大经济结构调整力度,加快转变经济发展方式”,促进“经济增长由主要依靠投资、出口拉动向依靠消费、投资、出口协调拉动转变”,要“创造条件让更多群众拥有财产性收入”。2008年国际金融危机的爆发,党中央把调整经济结构,扩大消费需求作为我国事关全局的重大任务之一,相继推出了扩大内需的十项基本措施、4万亿元经济刺激计划和十大产业调整振兴规划等重要措施。可见,中国政府在前几年已开始注重提高消费的拉动作用和经济发展方式的战略转型。本文将以我国城镇居民家庭为例,利用微观家计调查数据,着重从资产与消费的现状、资产与消费的关系、以及家庭经济结构的合理性等方面展开分析,为缓解我国宏观经济结构失衡和扩大消费需求提出对策建议,有助于贯彻落实科学发展观,促进经济平稳较快增长。全文共分为七章：第一章为绪论,第二章是探求资产与消费的基本理论。消费理论、资产组合选择理论、消费投资决策理论,是本文研究中国城镇居民家庭资产与消费问题的理论基石。家庭在现实经济生活中做出的消费选择、资产组合选择、消费与储蓄决策,会影响宏观经济结构的变化,从而影响经济资源的优化配置。第三章是分析城镇居民家庭的资产现状与资产选择行为。首先,对家庭资产积累的兴起和其宏微观效应进行定性分析。其次,利用“家庭资产与资产选择行为调查”数据,分析当前城镇居民家庭的资产、资产结构和资产选择行为特征,并与国际相比较。再次,采用Probit和Tobit模型对金融资产选择行为的影响因素,金融资产结构失调的家庭福利损失进行了理论和实证分析。第四章是分析城镇居民家庭的消费现状和消费结构。本章利用宏观时间序列数据和“四川省居民家庭消费状况及预期调查”数据,从宏微观层面分析城镇居民家庭消费需求与消费结构的现状和特点,并进行国际比较,在此基础上探讨进一步扩大消费需求的主要因素。第三、四章都是为研究本文主题资产与消费的关系奠定基础。第五、六章拟就资产与消费的关系进行分析。第五章侧重于从家庭资产因素的各个层面展开对消费影响的深入研究。包括：资产存量与资产构成、资产增量与资产构成、财产差距对消费的影响；基于消费习惯形成的资产财富效应理论模型,检验资产价格变化对消费水平的影响程度；使用GARCH(1.1)模型刻画资产收益率风险,研究资产收益率波动对经常性消费、服务性消费、汽车和商品房消费等不同类型消费的影响。第六章研究了消费对城镇居民家庭资产的影响。包括：跨期消费引起家庭资产的集聚效应和替代效应分析；家庭消费风险对资产收益及资本市场的影响；金融资产选择的双重消费性,家庭消费对金融市场的影响。第七章就如何优化微观家庭经济结构,提出扩大消费需求的对策。本章分别进行家庭消费率与消费结构、家庭资产结构、资产与消费结构、以及投资、消费、出口需求结构的合理化分析,提出了优化家庭经济结构的总体框架。在此基础上,提出了扩大消费需求的具体建议。包括：确保家庭收入的长期稳定增长,加强收入结构性调控；健全和完善社会保障体系,降低不确定性；优化城镇居民消费支出的内部结构；充分发挥资产效应促进内需增长；改善金融消费环境,满足家庭不断发展的金融需求和消费需求。本文以城镇居民家庭资产与消费问题为研究对象,主要有以下几个方面的创新点：1.利用微观家计调查数据,较为全面地分析了城镇居民家庭的资产与消费问题以往研究一般利用宏观总量数据,主要分析居民资产与消费的状况。本文基于笔者亲身参与的“家庭资产及资产选择行为调查”,对城镇居民家庭资产现状、资产选择特征、资产选择的国际比较、金融资产选择行为的影响因素、以及金融资产有限参与的家庭福利损失进行了较为全面的研究。注重消费和金融的融合,对家庭金融和金融消费理论进行了拓展,尝试性地从消费视角研究了家庭的金融需求及金融资产选择行为。同时,本文利用“四川省居民家庭消费状况及预期调查”,对消费需求、消费结构、消费预期和消费政策效率进行分析,其结论有助于了解当前地震和国际金融危机,对四川城镇居民家庭消费的影响程度和政策诉求。2.初步构建了资产与消费关系的研究框架家庭资产和消费互为整体且相互作用。本文分别从资产影响消费、消费影响资产、资产与消费选择行为三个方面梳理了家庭资产与消费的关系。而以往的研究更侧重于利用最优消费投资决策模型,注重用不同的实证方法研究家庭资产与消费的最优决策,较少系统分析家庭的资产与消费关系。影响消费的因素很多,本文重点就资产存量和增量、财产差距、资产价格变化、资产收益率和金融市场对消费的影响进行了实证分析。与此相应,跨期消费对家庭资产也会产生集聚效应和替代效应,消费风险会对资产收益和资本市场带来影响,家庭消费对金融消费和金融市场的发展举足轻重。家庭资产与消费现状、资产与消费关系的研究,为如何调整经济结构,扩大消费需求提供微观依据。3.从家庭微观经济结构层面及家庭资产与消费关系的角度,研究如何扩大消费需求以往对消费需求问题的理解更偏向于从收入、社会保障体系、不确定性和流动性约束、储蓄率以及城市化进程等角度去分析,从家庭微观经济结构层面及家庭资产与消费关系的角度,研究消费需求的形成及其变动尚未引起足够重视。消费、投资、出口的需求结构调整是长期以来我国经济发展面临的重要问题,正确认识消费、投资、出口三者之间的地位与作用,逐步实现经济增长由投资驱动向消费驱动转变,反映到家庭层面上,处理好家庭资产与消费的关系,形成合理的家庭经济结构非常重要。本文从优化微观经济结构出发,尝试性地提出家庭消费率与消费结构、家庭资产结构、资产与消费结构、以及投资、消费、出口需求结构的合理化鉴别指标及其数量标准,正确处理好家庭资产与消费的关系,最终为扩大消费需求提出对策建议,有助于贯彻落实科学发展观,促进经济平稳较快增长。由此可见,本文主要从家庭微观经济结构层面及家庭资产与消费关系的角度,为调整宏观经济结构和扩大消费需求提供微观基础研究。鉴于家庭资产与消费内容的广泛性和复杂性,本研究在这方面所作的尝试也存在着诸多不足,还有待于在以后的研究中不断完善。更多还原

【Abstract】 The course of more than three decades’ reform and opening-up in China, is the market-oriented macro-economic growth process, but also the process that household consumption demand continue to meet and upgrade. Sustained economic growth rises levels of household consumption and escalates consumption structure. Accordingly, the family of asset size、asset structure and asset choice behavior also changed significantly. As improving financial markets in China and increasing in household assets, family assets selection activities and consumption life becoming more and more closely, assets become an important factor in household consumption, household intertemporal consumption choice also make significant impacts on the financial markets and the macroeconomic.Economics study on important issues that appears in the real economy. A long time, economic growth is heavily dependent on investment and export-led situation, what leading to marked economic structure imbalance, consumption demand deficiency become normal situation in China’s economic operations. How to further expand consumer demand、adjust the economic structure and growth mode, it is urgent to find a new breakthrough.Household consumption demand and asset demand, consumption structure and asset structure, asset and consumer choice behavior are the importance micro-foundation in China’s macro-economic operation, correctly handle the relationship between the family assets and consumption, is becoming an important theoretical and practical issues of economic and social development at the present stage in China.In 2005 the Plenum of the CPC Central Committee explicitly pointed out that "to promote economic development and improving people’s lives have always been the central task of China". Report at 17th Party Congress pointed out:"to create conditions to allow more people to own property income", "step up economic structural adjustment efforts, speed up the transformation of economic development "and promote" economic growth mainly depends on investment, export-led to rely on the consumer, investment and exports led the coordination of changes. "In 2008 the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the Party Central Committee regards adjusting the economic structure,expanding consumer demand,as one of the major tasks is related to the overall situation in China, has introduced dozens of expanding domestic demand of basic measures,4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan and the top ten industrial restructuring and other important measures to revitalize the planning. Can be seen that the chinese government has begun to focus on strategic transformation a few years ago.In this paper will be as China’s urban households its object, the use of micro-household survey data, analyzes that:present situation of assets and consumption, the relationship between assets and consumption, assets and consumer choice behavior, and the rationality of family economic structure. Putting forward proposals to alleviate macroeconomic structural imbalances and consumption demand expand, makes the implementation of economic structure adjustment and scientific development concept that formulated by the central authorities.The full text is divided into eight chapters:Chapter one for the introduction, the second chapter is to explore the basic theory of assets and consumption. Consumer theory, portfolio selection theory, consumption and investment decision-making theory, are the cornerstone of family assets and consumer issues. Family to make consumer decisions、portfolio choice、consumption and savings decisions in the real economy and life, will affect the macro-economic changes in the structure, thus affecting the optimal allocation of economic resources.ChapterⅢanalyzes urban households present situation of assets and assets choice behavior. First, qualitatively analyze the rise of household assets accumulation and its effect of macro-micro. Secondly, using the "family assets and the assets choice behavior survey" data, analysze the urban households’ current characteristics of asset、asset structure、asset choice behavior,and compared with the international.Third, using probit and tobit model analyzes the influencing factors of financial assets selection behavior, and theoretically and empirically analysze the family welfare loss of financial asset structure disorders.Chapter IV analyze urban households’ consumption present situation and consumption structure.This chapter use the macro time-series data and survey data, from the macro-micro level analyze the current status and characteristics of consumer demand and the consumption structure in urban households, and international comparisons. on this basis to explore major factors of further expanding consumer demand. the Third and fourth chapters are the foundation to examine the theme of the relationship between assets and consumption.The Fifth and sixth chapters analyze the relationship between assets and consumption. Chapter V focusing on the all levels factors of family assets, studies on the impact of consumption. Including:asset inventory and asset composition, incremental assets and assets constitute、property gap impact on consumption; based on the assets wealth effect theoretical models, testing the changes in asset prices impact on the level of consumption; the use of GARCH (1,1) model describes the risk of capital gains rate, to study the fluctuations of the capital gains rate of recurrent spending, the service consumer, automotive and real estate consumption of different types of consumption. ChapterⅥstudies the consumption of urban residents on the impact of family assets. Include: intertemporal consumption caused by household assets’ accumulation and substitution effects analysis; consumption risk on the impact of assets return rate and capital markets; the dual consumption characters of financial assets choice, the family living consumption on the impact of financial consumption.Chapter VII discusses how to optimize the micro-economic structure of the family, address the problem to the expansion of consumer demand. Based on the rational analysis between the rate of household consumption and the consumption structure, the structure of household assets, the assets and the consumption structure, as well as investment, consumption, export demand,This chapter were the rate of household consumption and the consumption structure, the structure of household assets, the assets and the consumption structure, as well as investment, consumption, export demand, put forward an overall framework to optimize the family economic structure,and make a proposal of expand the consumer demand for this problem. Include:to ensure the long-term stability growth of household income, to strengthen structural control of the income; improve Social insurance system in Urban, to reduce uncertainty; to optimize the internal structure of consumption expenditure in urban residents; giving full play to asset effect,boost demand growth of domestic; to upgrade the environment for financial consumption,meet the needs of family demands for finance and consume.In this paper, as urban households for study object of assets and consumer issues, mainly in the following areas of innovation:1. Using micro household survey data, more comprehensive analysis of urban households in the assets and consumer issues. this paper bases on the "family assets and assets choice behavior," studies assets status、asset choice characteristics、the international comparison of asset choice、the factors of effecting financial assets choice behavior,as well as the welfare loss that limitedly involvs in financial assets.2. Preliminarily building on research framework of the relationship between assets and consumption.more in-depth theoretical and empirical research that the relationship between assets and consumption from three aspects, include:the impact asset on consumption, consumption affect on the assets, family assets and consumption relationship.3. From the point of view that family structure of micro-economic level and family assets and consumer relations, to study how expand consumption demand. this paper writing from optimizating micro-economic structure, attempts to raise the rationalization of identification indicators and their number standard, in order to putting forward proposals for alleviating macroeconomic structural imbalances and expansion consumption demand.It can be seen that this article from the point of view that the structure of micro-economic level of families and family assets and consumer relations, in order to adjust the macro-economic structure and the expansion of consumer demand in the provision of micro-basic research. Owing to the extensive and the complexity of household assets and consumption content, There are more or less some deficiencies about the attempts, which need further generalization and improvement in the future studies.更多还原