【作者】 李怀宇；

【导师】 王洪礼；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 海岸带地区是地球表面陆地与海洋区位优势的结合地区。海岸带地区生态系统既具有很高的生态、经济和社会价值,又为人类提供了最为宝贵的生存环境。研究海岸带生态经济系统模型的建立及分析、海岸带生态经济系统的状态转换及对海岸带城市生态经济投入产出的效率评价,从而为实现我国海岸带地区生态经济的可持续发展提供了理论基础,同时也有着广泛的应用前景。本文运用非线性动力学理论,对海岸带生态、环境和经济三者之间的关系进行了深入的研究:首先建立了海岸带生态经济系统模型,并进行了分析;再采用Copula方法对海岸带生态经济模型的参数进行了拟合,研究了海岸带生态经济系统的状态转移;最后还将随机前沿SFA方法与因子分析法相结合,对我国海岸带城市生态经济的投入与产出的效率进行了科学评价。1.基于非线性动力学理论,本文结合海岸带生态经济的特点,构建了海岸带生态经济系统模型,并研究了排污强度与环保投资强度这两个参数的变化对该系统非线性特性的影响。在此基础上,还对海岸带生态经济系统的状态进行了划分,研究了海岸带生态经济在各状态区域中的发展状况,因此,对海岸带地区生态经济的科学管理具有重要意义。2.采用了连接函数Copula方法对海岸带生态经济模型中的控制参数进行了研究,计算了排污强度和环保投资的联合分布函数和相关性,并结合马尔科夫方法对控制参数进行调整,以此来改善海岸带生态经济系统的状态转换过程。这对合理地控制排污强度和科学地决策环保投资均具有指导意义。3.海岸带城市生态经济指标体系的建立和投入产出效率的评价能够反映海岸带城市生态经济的发展水平,因此,本文首先建立了海岸带城市生态经济指标体系,并采用了因子分析法和随机前沿分析SFA方法对海岸带48个城市生态经济的投入产出效率进行了研究和评价,并对全面提高我国海岸带地区生态经济发展水平提出了建议,从而有力地保证了我国海岸带地区生态经济的可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Coastal zone is the combination part of the location advantages of land and ocean in the Earth’s surface. Coastal ecological system not only produces high ecological, economic and social value, but also provides the mankind with the most valuable habitat. Study of the construction and analysis of coastal ecological economic model, research on the state transition of coastal ecological and economic system, and evaluation of input-output efficiency of Coastal urban ecological economy, provide theoretical basis for the sustainable development of coastal ecological economy and there is a widely application field.The text used nonlinear dynamics theory to do some research on the relationship of coastal ecology, environment and economy. First, The text constructed a coastal ecological economic model and analyzed it. Second, Copula method was used to fit the parameters of the coastal ecological economic model and do some research on the state transition of the model. Finally, Stochastic Frontier analysis (SFA) and Factor analysis were used for the evaluation of the input-output efficiency of Coastal urban ecological economy.1. Based on nonlinear dynamics theory, the text combined the characteristics of coastal ecological economy and constructed a coastal ecological economic model, and then did some research on the system nonlinear characteristics effect on the change of discharge intensity and environmental protection investment.Based on this, the state areas of coastal ecological economic system were divided, and the text did some research on the evolution process of coastal ecological economic system in each state areas. Therefore, it is important for the scientifical management of coastal ecological economy.2. Copula method was used to do some research on the control parameters of coastal eco-economic model. And the joint distribution function and correlation between discharge intensity and environmental protection investment were calculated, and the text combined the results of Copula with Markov method to adjust the control parameters to improve the state transition process of coastal ecological economic system. It is very meaningful to control discharge intensity reasonably and arrange environmental protection investment scientifically. 3. Construction of coastal urban ecological economy development index system and evaluation of input-output efficiency can reflect the level of coastal urban ecological economy development. Therefore, the text constructed coastal urban ecological economy development index system firstly, and used Factor analysis and Stochastic Frontier analysis to evaluate the input-output efficiency of ecological economy of 48 coastal cities, and give suggestions for the improvement of the level of Coastal ecological economy to ensure the sustainable development of coastal ecological economy in our country.更多还原