【作者】 王敏；

【导师】 刘冬荣；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 股利政策是财务学研究的经典课题之一,也是半个多世纪以来“十大未解决的财务问题”之一。从Lintner模型到Miller和Modigliani在完美和有效的资本市场的前提下提出股利无关论(简称MM股利无关论),而后学者开始放宽MM股利无关论的假设,产生了税差理论、客户效应理论、信号传递理论、代理成本理论、生命周期理论、行为学派理论等,并己识别出诸如公司规模,当前的收益及现金流状况、收益及现金流的稳定性、成长性、财务杠杆、股权结构、机构持股比、产品市场竞争、法律环境等许多影响公司股利政策的因素。这些研究成果是基于成熟资本市场的公司股利行为发展起来的,很少有研究关注不同制度环境下公司股利政策的差异,尤其是我国处于计划经济向市场经济转型这一特殊的制度背景及经济环境。影响国外成熟资本市场上市公司股利政策的因素,是否同样影响我国上市公司的股利政策有待于理论模型的建立和实证的检验。本文首先从早期的股利理论、经典的股利理论以及现代股利理论三个阶段对股利理论进行了系统的梳理,并得出由于每一种理论前提及特定背景不同没有普遍适用的股利理论的结论。同时对从宏观因素、公司特征和公司治理等方面对影响公司股利政策的影响因素进行了归纳和整理,为本文实证研究的变量选择提供了依据。其次,通过比较美国、英国、德国、日本和韩国股利政策的特征及影响因素,为分析我国上市公司股利政策的特征提供了一个比较基础并为优化我国上市公司股利政策提供了可供借鉴的国际经验。再次,从不同角度分析了我国上市公司股政策的特征。然后,在我国特定的制度背景和经济环境下,从制度安排和经济环境、公司特征、治理结构三个角度,对我国上市公司的股利政策的影响因素进行系统的理论分析。同时选取我国非金融类上市公司为样本,综合运用Probit模型、Logit模型、固定效应模型、随机效应模型对我国上市公司股利政策的影响因素进行实证检验,并用曲线拟合方法分析了第一大股东持股比例与股利政策的关系,从而为上市公司股利政策的优化提供了理论和实践的依据。最后得出本文研究结论,并对优化我国上市公司股利政策提出几点建议并展望后续研究方向。根据理论和实证研究结果,作者发现：(1)我国上市公司的股利方式包括现金股利、红股、转增股本三种方式,现金股利是我国主要股利方式,但支付力度较低。上市公司股利政策的稳定性较差,具有时序性特征。另外,研究发现我国不同行业上市公司存在明显的行业特征,表现在股利方式及其发放力度上存在明显差异。例如采掘业、电力煤气及水的生产与供应业偏好现金股利且支付力度较大。我国上市公司中不存在明显的地区差异,深证A股和上证A股的股利政策不存在明显差异。(2)制度的安排和经济环境的变化对股利政策有着重要影响。由于市场制度安排上的内在缺陷、历史原因造成部分上市公司的先天不足、经济发展状况以及法律环境对公司的股利政策具有显著影响。(3)影响国外上市公司的公司规模、资产专用性、偿债能力、当前的收益(或现金流)状况、收益(或现金流)的稳定性、企业的生命周期、外部融资的成本等公司特征因素同样影响我国上市公司股利政策,但对公司股利方式选择和发放力度的影响程度存在明显差异。其中,资产专用性、融资成本对股利政策的影响为理解我国上市公司的股利政策提供了一种崭新的视角。(4)从影响公司股利政策的公司治理因素来看,股权结构、董事会特征、法律环境、资本市场及控制权市场对股利政策存在显著影响,但对公司股利方式选择及发放力度影响程度及方向存在一定差异,第一大股东持股比例与现金股利政策存在二次三项式的关系而不是U型关系。其中,管理者持股比例、董事会规模、董事的报酬、董事会领导结构、产品市场竞争对股利政策不存在显著影响。投资分析师预测收入对上市公司现金股利政策存在显著影响而其预测收入则影响不显著。另外,加入公司治理因素后,较多的公司特征因素对股利政策的影响由显著变为不显著,说明公司治理因素是影响我国公司股利政策的主要因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 Dividend policy is a classical issue of finance study and has been a top 10 open financial question since the past half century. Dividend policy theory was developed from the Lintner model to the dividend irrelevance theory under the premise of perfect and efficient capital markets, proposed by Miller and Modigliani (MM dividend irrelevance theory for short). Thereafter, scholars began to expand the MM dividend irrelevance theory hypothesis, creating tax differential theory, customer effect theory, signaling theory, agency cost theory, life cycle theory, behavioral theory and so on. Meanwhile, they were capable of identifying the factors that impact companies’dividend policy, such as company scale, current earnings and cash flow, earnings and cash flow stability, growth ability, financial leverage, ownership structure, proportion of shares held by institutions, product market competition and legal environment. These academic achievements are developed on the base of dividend behavior of mature capital market. Few studies focused on the differences in dividend policy under different institutional environment, especially for China, a country now is processing transitional economy. Whether the factors that affect the dividend policy of listed companies in mature capital market would also influent the dividend policy of Chinese listed companies remains to be tested by standard modeling establishment and case studies.This dissertation firstly generalizes systematically about the dividend theories in three stages——early dividend theory stage, classical dividend theory stage and modern dividend theory stage, drawing a conclusion that there is hardly a universal theory that can apply to every situation due to the different theoretical precondition and certain background in each theory. Simultaneously, it concludes and sorts out the factors that impact on corporate dividend policy from macroeconomic perspective, firm characteristics perspective and governance structure perspective, which provides the basis for the variable selection in empirical studies in this paper. Secondly, by comparing the characteristics and influencing factors of dividend policy in America, England, Germany, Japan and Korea, this paper provides a comparable basis for analyzing the characteristics of dividend policy in Chinese listed companies and proposes international practices for reference to optimize dividend policy of Chinese listed companies. Thirdly, it analyzes the characteristics of dividend policy in Chinese listed companies from different perspectives. Then, based on the special system background and economic environment in China, this paper systematically analyzes the factors that influence dividend policy of Chinese listed companies from institutional arrangement, firm characteristics and governance structure three perspectives. By selecting Chinese non-financial listed companies as samples, this paper comprehensively applies Probit model, Logit model, fixed effect model and random effect model to test the influencing factors of dividend policy in Chinese listed companies empirically, and the method of curve fitting analysis to analyze the relationship between the proportion of shares held by the largest shareholder and dividend policy, thus providing theoretical and practical basis for optimizing dividend policy of Chinese listed companies. Lastly, the author introduces the main conclusions of this paper, and suggests the way to optimize dividend policy of Chinese listed companies and leads future research directions.Based on the results of theoretical analysis and empirical test, the main findings of the dissertation are as follows:Firstly, the dividend methods of Chinese listed companies contains cash dividends, bonus shares and increased subscribed shares, among which cash dividends is the main payout method in China but the paying rate is very low. The stability of dividend policy of listed companies is relatively weak, which has time sequence. In addition, it is also found that the payout methods and the paying rate vary a lot in listed companies due to the significant industrial characteristics in different industries. For example, excavating industry together with power gas water production and supply industry trend to distribute cash dividends and the paying rate is high. The regional difference among Chinese listed companies is insignificant. There is no significant difference between the dividend policy of Shenzhen a-share and SSE a-share.Secondly, system arrangement and the change of economic environment both have important influence on dividend policy. Economy development condition, legal environment and the congenital deficiencies of some listed companies caused by the internal defects of market system arrangement and historical reasons have a significant impact on corporate dividend policy.Thirdly, foreign companies’characteristic factors that affect company scale, asset specificity, solvency, current income(or cash flow) status, stability of income(or cash flow), enterprise’s lifecycle and the cost of external financing also impact on dividend policy of Chinese listed companies, but the degree of influence on selection of payout method and paying rate presents significant difference. Among them, the impact of asset specificity and financing cost on dividend policy provides new insights into dividend policy of Chinese listed companies.Finally, according to the corporate governance factors that affect corporate dividend policy, ownership structure, the characteristics of director board, legal environment, capital market and market for corporate control are significantly related to dividend policy. However, the degree and direction of the influence on corporate payout method selection and paying rate present difference. The relationship between the proportion of shares held by the largest shareholder and cash dividends is proved to be second degree trinomial expression but not U-shape. Among them, proportion of shares held by managers, director board scale, directors’compensation, leadership structure of director board and product market competition is insignificantly related to dividend policy. The expected income anticipated by investment analyst is insignificantly related to dividend and net profit have insignificant influence on dividend policy.Furthermore, when taking the corporate governance factor into consideration, the impacts of many firm characteristics factors on dividend policy turn from significant to insignificant, which indicates that corporate governance factor is the major determinant that affects Chinese companies’ dividend policy.更多还原