国际关系及重大事件对出入境旅游的影响

【作者】 王洁洁；

【导师】 孙根年；

【作者基本信息】 陕西师范大学 ， 旅游管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 在全球化背景下,国际旅游一直是学界关注的重要问题,然而学者们往往从市场视角出发,仅关注国际旅游带来的经济效益,却忽略了旅游的政治性特点。事实上,国际旅游是一种高度的政治行为,国际旅游与国际关系之间关系密切,国际关系的危机事件或利好事件会对国际旅游产生巨大的影响,反过来,国际旅游从一定程度上也能促进两国文化的渗透与交融,增进两国居民间的理解与支持,从而起到缓和或改善国际关系的作用。因此,国际关系与国际旅游的相关研究是旅游科学研究的前沿领域,虽然目前该课题并未得到广泛关注,但是研究国际关系对国际旅游的影响机制,探讨国际旅游对国际关系的反作用,对于拓展旅游政治学的理论与实践具有重要的意义。本研究以近30年来中国与美国、日本、韩国、俄罗斯的双边关系,及大陆与台湾、香港地区关系变化与旅游流的互动为研究对象,以国际关系(地区关系)中的重大事件为切入点,运用本底趋势线理论、旅游地生命周期理论、冲突与合作理论等,选取出入境客流量、环比增长率及占出境旅游比三个关键性指标,构建客流量的本底趋势线、Ⅰ型理想曲线和Ⅱ型理想曲线为参照系,定量测定两国(地区)双边关系(地区政治关系)中重大事件对出入境旅游的影响,其主要内容有：(1)国际关系与出入境旅游关系概念模型的构建。从两个国家双边关系与出入境旅游互动的机理出发,综合考虑国际关系和旅游流发生的必备条件,构建国际关系对出入境旅游影响的概念模型,制定国际关系对出入境旅游影响的判断标准,丰富国际关系与旅游研究的理论与方法。(2)国际关系重大事件的梳理与甄别。本研究采用更为广泛的视角和客观的立场,在确定双边关系重大事件的性质时,关注双边政府和国民对同一事件的不同认识,了解双方的立场和看法,事件分析采用“刑侦学”的方法,以“事件梳理确定→影响机制分析→影响结果确证”的吻合-对应原则来确定。(3)国际关系重大事件对出入境旅游的影响分析。梳理改革开放30年来中国与美国、日本、韩国、俄罗斯双边关系,及大陆与台湾、香港地区政治关系变化中的重大事件,分析各事件对出入境旅游影响的机制与响应,运用本底趋势线理论与旅游地生命周期理论,定量测定重大事件对出入境旅游流双向互动的冲击和影响。(4)国际关系与国际旅游的动态博弈分析。基于博弈论分析国际关系与国际旅游的博弈机制,建立博弈模型,并从国家决策角度探讨中国如何妥善处理其对外关系与民间旅游的博弈。通过研究得到以下结论：(1)国际关系是影响出入境旅游流动最重要的因素。国际关系从层次结构上可以分为三个层次：政府层面的政治关系,企业层面的经济关系以及民间层面的人员流动,国际旅游从某种程度上可认为是民间的人员流动,这种民间层面的人员流动必然受制于政府层面的政治关系。(2)国际关系危机事件的强度直接影响出入境旅游的损失量。本研究将国际关系危机事件分为六个等级,强度从一级到六级逐渐递减。在中美、中日关系的危机事件中,以政府声明形式提出最强烈抗议并举行针对对方的大规模军事演习事件,是对旅游互动影响最大的国际关系危机事件,在国际关系危机事件的划分中属于三级危机。如1996年的“美介入台海危机”；向中国基本政治立场挑衅的国际关系危机事件对旅游流互动的影响次之,属于四级危机事件,如中日“教科书事件”、“参拜靖国神社事件”、“钓鱼岛事件”等：外交发言表示强烈反对、极大愤慨和坚决反对的国际关系危机事件属于六级事件,其对出入境旅游流的影响相对较小,如“炸馆事件”和“撞机事件”。(3)国际关系利好事件的级别直接影响出入境旅游的增长量。本研究将国际关系的利好事件划分为六个级别,其强度从一级到六级逐渐递减,即国际关系的友好程度在不断下降。通过对中韩关系、中俄关系利好事件对旅游流互动影响的分析,发现“建交事件”或“解除出入境旅游限制”是国际关系利好事件中对出入境旅游冲击最大的事件,属于一级利好事件,如“中俄重建外交关系“及”韩取消对中国旅游限制”;“签订旅游协议”对旅游流的影响次之,属于二级利好事件,如“中韩旅游协议的签订”；两国签订双边综合经济协议、双边贸易合作协议及建立战略关系等事件属于三级利好事件,均会对两国旅游流产生一定的影响。(4)国际关系与国际旅游之间存在着博弈关系。依据博弈的核心思想,将国际关系与国际旅游的博弈关系划分为三种不同的类别：纯粹冲突状态下的“共害博弈”、和谐状态下的“共赢博弈”、合作与冲突并存下的“动态博弈”。另外,第三类博弈又划分为基于危机的动态博弈和基于合作的保证博弈,并以危机是否涉及国家领土完整及主权分别构建5段式和3段式的动态博弈模型。本研究的创新点包括以下三个方面：(1)从政治视角关注国际关系变化对出入境旅游的影响,为旅游政治学的进一步研究提供理论与事实依据。本研究关注正常国际关系中突变点——重大危机事件或利好事件,对出入境旅游的影响和冲击,并对中国与美国、日本、韩国、俄罗斯双边关系,及大陆与台湾香港地区关系变化与旅游流互动进行案例分析,丰富旅游政治研究的理论与实践。(2)构建了国际关系重大事件对出入境旅游影响的定量化测评体系。本研究选取了入境客流量、环比增长率和出(入)境旅游比三个关键性指标,构建本底趋势线、Ⅰ型理想曲线和Ⅱ型理想曲线三条理想曲线,通过对比统计曲线与理想曲线的偏差,定量分析国际关系重大事件对出入境旅游互动的冲击和影响,为国际关系与出入境旅游研究提供定量化测评。(3)根据事件对旅游的影响程度,对国际关系中危机事件及利好事件的强度进行划分。本研究将国际关系危机事件及利好事件分别划分为六个等级,并在大量事实分析的基础上归纳出各等级危机事件对旅游影响的相对损失率及环比增长率下降量的范围。(4)提出了国际关系与国际旅游的博弈类型。本研究将国际关系与国际旅游的博弈关系划分为三类：纯粹冲突状态下的“共害博弈”、和谐状态下的“共赢博弈”、以及合作与冲突并存下的“动态博弈”,并结合具体案例进行了细致的研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the background of globalization, with the fast development of international tourism, domestic and foreign scholars have already analyzed the flow direction, flow velocity of international tourism, which is not only the basis of tourism flows research, but also make the huge contributions to solve the practical problems of international tourism. However, most of scholars are only concerned about the economic benefits, and ignore the tourism political nature. Few scholars analyze international relationship and national politics from the international tourism phenomenon. Actually, international tourism is a high degree of political behavior, international tourism has close connection with international tourism. The impact of crisis events and benefical events in international relationship to international tourism is huge, and international tourism can enhance understanding, ease or improve international relationship in a sense. Therefore, the relation between international relationship and international tourism is a new frontier of tourism science, which has important theoretical and practical significance.Taking maga-events in international relation as the breakthrough point, based on Tourism Background Line Theory, Tourism Area Life Cycle Theory, Conflict and Operation Theory, selecting three key indicators such as the number of inbound tourists, growth rate and the proportion to outbound tourists, constructing three ideal curves, quantitatively measure the impact of maga-events in Sino-U.S, Sino-Japan, Sino-Korea, Sino-Russia, Cross Strait, Mainland-Hong Kong relations to tourism. The contents are as follows:(1) Constructing concept model of international relation and international tourism. From the mechanism of international relation and international tourism interaction, considered prerequisites of international relation and tourism, this paper construct concept model, make the judgment criterion to measure the impact of international relation to international tourism, broaden the theory and method of international relation and tourism research.(2) Discrimination of maga-events in international relationship. This paper focus on the government and people’s different opinions toward one event, try to understand the opposite side’s view. The method of events analysis is confirmed by the "conform-correspondence" principal of "discrimination of events, analysis of mechanism, confirmation of result" in criminal detection.(3) The analysis of the impact of maga-events in international relationship to international tourism. By discriminating the maga-events in Sino-U.S, Sino-Japan, Sino-Korea, Sino-Russia, Cross Strait, Mainland-Hong Kong relations, based on TBLT and TALCT, this paper analyzes the impact and mechanism of maga-events to international tourism.(4) Dynamic game analysis between international relationship and international tourism. This paper try to analyze the dynamic game mechanism between international relationship and international tourism based on Game Theory, and discuss how to balance their dynamic relations from nation management viewpoint, which can offer the theory and method reference for political tourism research.The results are as follows:(1) International relationship is the most important factor to affect international tourism. International relationship can be divided into three levels from the structure viewpoint, which are political relations in government level, economic relations in enterprise level and the personnel flows in nongovernment level. In a sense, international tourism can be considered as personnel flows which are highly restricted by governmental political relations.(2) The strength of crisis events in international relationship has direct effects to the tourist losses. By analyzing the impact of Sino-U.S, Sino-Japan relation to international tourism, this paper found that "Government issued vigorously denounce and made the military exercise" was the most influential crisis event, such as "U.S intervene Cross Strait Crisis in 1996"; the effects of provocation to China’s basic political stand came next, such as Sino-Japan Schoolbook Event, pay homage to Yasukuni Shrine, and Diaoyu Island event; diplomatic statement of strongly oppose, great indignation had less impact on international tourism, such as Air Crash and Expode Embassy Crisis.(3) The strength of profitable events in international relationship has direct effects to the tourist growth. By analyzing impact of Sino-Korea, Sino-Russia relation to international tourism, this paper found that "establishing diplomatic relations" and "lift the restriction on tourism" was the most influential good event, such as "China and Russia reestablish relations" and "Korea lift the restrictions on tourism"; the effects of "signing the travel agreement" came next; "signing economic agreement", "signing free trade agreement" and "good-neighborly treaty of friendship and cooperation" also impacted the tourism, but the effects were different because of the diversity contents.(4) There was dynamic game between international relationship and international tourism. Based on Game Theory, the "dynamic game between international relationship and international tourism were divided into three types. This paper analyzed the different game between China and U.S, Japan, Korea, Russia, and the special game between Mainland and Taiwan, Hong Kong.The innovations in the dissertation are as follows:(1) This dissertation focuses on the impact of international relationship to international tourism from political perspective, which broading the theory and practice of tourism political science.(2) This dissertation sets up the index system to measure the impact of maga-events in international relation to tourism.(3) This dissertation divides the maga-events of international relation into six level by its strengeh. (4) This dissertation contructs game model between international relationship and international tourism.更多还原