【作者】 李宁；

【导师】 李延喜；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 技术经济与管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 企业的健康成长是国民经济发展的源动力,而中国资本市场的发展还处于初级阶段,存在很大的风险。为了减少这种风险带来的损失,我们对上市公司必须有清晰的认识,因此判定上市公司成长性就显得尤为重要。上市公司中成长性比较强的,其投资所需资金可能会较多,但受到资本结构、融资约束等问题的影响,尤其是其内部经营现金流量是上市公司在面临投资选择时必须考虑的问题。因此,上市公司的成长性与其现金流量和投资支出有重要的联系。而这种关系的验证对我们更加清晰的了解上市公司的成长性,为成长性公司提供更加便利的发展方式,解决其面临的资金不足、融资约束、投资不足或过度等问题更是具有重要意义。本文主要由六个部分组成。第一部分提出问题,说明本文的研究目的和意义,从成长性与现金流量、成长性与投资支出、现金流量与投资支出三方面归纳与总结其关系问题,并以此为基础界定了成长性、现金流量、投资支出三者的概念。第二部分为理论分析,本文主要围绕上市公司成长中存在的问题,分析了MM理论、信息不称理论、融资优序理论、融资约束理论、EVA理论以及企业成长理论,为本文的研究奠定理论基础。第三部分为上市公司成长性的判定分析,研究主要从上市公司成长性的影响因素入手,定义了成长性的代理变量,并选取1076家上市公司2007-2009年的3228个有效样本,采用主成分分析法对成长性进行判断。使用Excel、SPSS15.0等软件对数据进行处理,其中Excel主要用来执行数据的采集、整理、筛选和排序,SPSS主要用来执行数据的描述性统计和回归模型的检验。最终,将上市公司划分为高成长性与低成长性两大类。第四部分分析了上市公司的现金流量与投资支出的关系。该部分在分别分析了现金流量、投资支出的影响因素和计量外,对两者的现状进行了描述性分析,并在此基础上建立上市公司现金流量与投资支出的关系模型,实证分析得出上市公司的现金流量与投资支出正相关。第五部分从成长性的视角分析上市公司现金流量与投资支出的关系问题,在对成长性与现金流量、成长性与投资支出实证研究的基础上,从高成长性与低成长性两个角度分析了上市公司的现金流量与投资支出的关系。第六部分主要归纳了本文的研究结论与展望。本文的主要结论有：(1)构建了上市公司成长性评价模型：通过选取营业收入增长率、净资产增长率、每股收益、市盈率、托宾Q、税后利润增长率和可持续成长率具有较强的代表性的7项指标,用科学的计量方法构建了公司成长性评价模型；(2)上市公司成长性与现金流量的关系：经过严格的筛选和面板数据的平衡处理,选择标准化后的公司经营活动现金净流量作为内部现金流量的代理变量,对样本公司的成长性与现金流量进行了相关性检验和回归分析,结果显示上市公司的成长性与现金流量正相关；(3)上市公司成长性与投资支出的关系：通过实证回归得出公司成长性对投资支出的影响检验结果是相关系数为0.02,p值为0.01,这意味着,上市公司的成长性与现金流量正相关；(4)不同成长性上市公司的投资支出与现金流量的关系：①我国上市公司无论属于高成长性还是低成长性,其投资支出与公司现金流量之间呈显著的正相关关系；②我国上市公司低成长性的公司现金流量与投资支出的敏感性要高于高成长性的公司,说明中国上市公司的投资行为支持融资约束假说,即融资约束理论下的投资不足可以解释公司投资与现金流量的敏感性关系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Healthy growth of the enterprises is the source of power of the National economic development. But the capital market in China is still in its infancy, and there is a great risk. In order to reduce losses from this risk, we must have a clear understanding about the listed companies. So judging the company’s growth is particularly important. The listed companies with strong growth may have more investment expenditure, but they are influenced with the capital structure and financing constraints, especially its internal internal cash flows, which is the most important problem that the company must consider at the time of investment chosen. Therefore, the relationship among the growth of listed companies, cash flows, and investment expenditure is very important. And the validation of this relationship has much more significance to understand the listed company’s growth more clearly, provide more convenience to the development of growth companies, and solve the problems such as the insufficient funds, financing constraints and overinvestment or underinvestment.This article mainly divided into six major parts. The first part poses the issue, and explains the purposes and the meanings of this research, at the same time, sums up the relationships of the growth and cash flows, growth and investment expenditure, cash flows and investment expenditure. Then it defines the concepts of the growth, cash flows and investment expenditure. The second part is theoretical analysis. This article mainly analyses the MM theory, information asymmetry, pecking order theory, financing constraints theory, EVA theory, and enterprise growth of the firm, basis on the problems of the growth of the listed company, thus offers the theory foreshadowing for following research. The third part is the analysis of the listed company’s growth. It mainly starts from the influencing factors of the growth, and then defines the variables of the growth, at the end, choses 3228 specimens of 1076 listed companies, from 2007 to 2009, and estimates the growth using principal components analysis. In this paper, we use Excel and SPSS 15.0 for data processing. Excel is primarily used for data collection, screening and sorting. SPSS is mainly used for descriptive statistics and regression model inspection. Then, the listed companies could be divided into two categories, which are high growth and low growth. The fourth section analyses the relationship between listed companies’ cash flows and investment expenditure. At first, it analyses the influencing factors and measurement about the cash flows and investment expenditure respectively, and describes the status quo of the cash flows and investment expenditure. Then, we establish a model about the relationship between the listed companies’cash flows and investment expenditure. The empirical research result is that the listed companies’cash flows and investment expenditure is positive related. The fifth part analyses the relationship between the listed companies’cash flows and investment expenditure basis on the growth of the listed companies. On the basis of the empirical research about the relationship between the growth and cash flows, the growth and investment expenditure, it analyses the relationship between the listed companies’cash flows and investment expenditure, from high growth and low growth angle respectively. The sixth part is the summary of the conclusions and the outlook.This article mainly has four results. The first, this research constructs a listed companies’ growth evaluation model. It chooses seven indexes with strong representative, they are Revenue Growth Rate, Net Capital Increasing Ratio, Earnings Per Share, P/E Ratio, Tobin Q, Net Income Increase Ratio and Sustainable Growth Rate. And it constructs a listed companies’ growth evaluation model, using the science metering method.The second is the relationship between listed companies’growth and cash flows. Through the strict screening and balance processing of the panel data, we choose standardized net operating cash flows as the proxy variable of the internal operating cash flows, and then we have the correlation inspection and regression analysis of the sample companies’growth and cash flows. The result shows that the listed companies’growth and cash flow have positive correlation. The third is the relationship between listed companies’growth and investment expenditure. The inspection results of the empirical regression of the listed companies’growth and investment expenditure shows that the correlation coefficient of the listed companies’growth and investment expenditure is 0.02, and the p value is 0.01, which means that the listed companies’ growth and cash flows have positive correlation. The forth is the relationship between cash flows and investment expenditure of different growth listed companies. (1) China’s listed companies whether belong to high growth or low growth, its investment expenditure and internal cash flows have significant positive correlation. (2) The sensitive between the listed companies’ investment expenditure and cash flows, which with lower growth, is higher than which with higher growth. It proves that the listed companies’investment actions are support the financing constraints hypothesis. That is underinvestment basis on the financing constraints could explain the sensitive relations between companies’investment and cash flows.更多还原