【作者】 李世兰；

【导师】 赵伟；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 出口扩张模式是国际贸易领域研究的一个重要命题之一,不同的贸易理论的解释不尽相同。产业间贸易理论基于产品同质性的假设,强调了同类产品出口数量的扩张,而产业内贸易理论则基于产品差异化假设,强调出口种类的扩张。两种理论暗含着同样的假定条件：一是一国出口面对所有国家；二是贸易模式具有“锁定”效应。然而现实的情形是,针对特定的商品一国会对特定的目的国出口,许多国家并没有该产品的贸易流动,即国际贸易双边贸易存在大量“零”贸易流量,而且随着贸易壁垒的下降,这些零贸易流量也会逐渐变成正值,新的贸易关系开始建立,“锁定”效应亦被打破。为了解释双边贸易流量的变化,相关研究借鉴异质性贸易理论框架并进行拓展,从企业行为视角分析了双边贸易流量变化的条件和方式,“二元边际”的概念便随之诞生。随后的相关研究从二元边际的概念、测度、影响因素以及相关效应方面做了理论分析和实证研究。但是现有研究并没有具体分析出口二元边际是如何被决定的,以及除了对经济增长的影响之外还有哪些相关的影响效应。本文研究的目的在于,结合中国出口扩张路径模式的特征,具体分析在二元边际视野下,出口扩张的具体决定因素和效应的作用机理,并利用中国出口产品层面微观数据进行相关的实证检验。本文首先对二元边际视角下出口扩张路径模式的相关文献进行回顾,从概念的提出、指标测度、驱动因素和效应四个方面进行了阐述,并对聚焦于中国的相关研究进行了述评。在此基础上,本文随后选取两个常用的指标并采用产品层面的微观数据对中国出口扩张路径模式进行分解分析。结果显示,不论采用Feenstra指标进行的时间序列特征的分析还是采用HK指标进行的横截面对比分析,中国的出口扩张模式都主要来源于集约边际,而且对二元边际进一步分解的结果显示,在集约边际中数量指数占主导地位。采用贡献度指标对中国出口扩张模式的动态演进模式进行分析,回归结果显示,中国的出口扩张正在向为以数量为主导的模式转变,尤其是2001年中国入世之后这个演进模式表现的更加明显。基于中国出口扩张的模式特征,接下来本文对中国出口扩张二元边际模式的企业决策过程进行了演示。从理论上看,市场距离、市场准入成本和进口国收入水平是企业进入市场前如何决定出口市场范围的重要因素,它们可以通过影响企业进入成本进而影响出口市场范围即出口扩展边际,从而带来贸易扩张效应。而要素禀赋、技术水平和资本投入对企业的产品组合决策产生影响。首先,区域要素禀赋的差异,决定了该国家或者区域在不同的产品上具有不同的比较优势,因此,熟练劳动丰富的国家倾向于在熟练劳动集中的产业出口更多的产品种类,反之亦然。其次,技术水平的高低决定了生产成本的高低,从而影响出口的产品组合,同时一国技术水平也决定了出口产品的差异化程度,从而通过市场垄断力量影响出口产品组合。再次,资本投入对出口产品组合的影响表现为：区域人力资本的差异对扩展边际产生影响,而对集约边际则未产生显著影响,而区域知识禀赋的差异通过影响出口产品的单价进而影响出口集约边际。最后,基于中国数据的实证分析模型显示,在出口扩张市场范围决策中,市场距离和进口国的收入水平产生了显著的影响,而市场准入成本效应并不明显。在出口扩张产品组合决策中,贸易成本的影响最大,产品价格次之,贸易伙伴的人均收入水平最小,要素价格水平对出口并未产生显著影响。随后本文对出口扩张二元边际模式的效应进行了理论分析,并采用中国的出口数据进行了实证检验。首先,比较优势效应的分析显示,集约边际可以强化出口比较优势,但是过度的集约边际比例会使得出口贸易模式锁定在固有的出口比较优势上；而扩展边际可以弱化出口比较优势,但是可以降低出口比较优势低端锁定的可能性。其次,价格指数调整效应的分析显示,如果出口沿着集约边际进行扩张,则供给曲线的外移使得产品数量增加的同时带来价格的下降；如果出口沿着扩展边际进行扩张,则新增产品种类满足消费者更多的偏好需求,需求曲线也会同时外推,使得出口数量增加的同时价格下降幅度减少,甚至是价格上升。再次,出口收入波动效应的分析显示,出口沿着集约边际扩张会加大出口的波动性,增加出口风险；而出口扩展边际则可以降低出口波动性,减少出口风险。基于上述分析,本文最后提出了相应的政策建议,以期能够促进中国出口扩张模式持续健康发展并能获取更多的贸易利益。同时,本文提出了研究中存在的不足之处以及进一步研究方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 Export expansion model is one of the important topics in international trade research, and different trade theory makes different explanations. Based on the hypothesis of product homogeneity, inter-industry trade theory emphasizes quantity expansion of the similar products, while the intra-industry trade theory, based on the hypothesis of product differentiation, emphasizes variety expansion in export. However, both of them have two implicit assumptions:one is that one country will export to all countries; another is that trade pattern has locked-in effect. But the reality is for a certain merchandise, one country will be exported to specified countries, but many countries haven’t the trade flow of this merchandise, thus there exists plenty of "zero" trade flows in bilateral trade flow, and as barriers decrease, these zero trade flows will gradually turn to positive value, and new trade relationship will be built, then the locked-in effect will also be broken. The heterogeneity trade theory was quoted and extended to explain the condition and behavior of bilateral trade flow change from enterprise behavior point of view, and then the concept of "dual margin" was born. The following related research made theoretical analysis and empirical test on the concept, measurement method, influence factors and the effect of dual margin. But the existing researches didn’t analyze concretely how a firm’s export dual margin is decided and whati are other relevant effects in addition to the economic growth effect. This paper attempts to introduce the features of Chinese export expansion path model, analyze specifically the mechanism of specific determinants and effect of export expansion with the view of dual margin, and provide empirical evidence from Chinese microscopic level product data.This paper firstly makes a literature review about export expansion model under the perspective of dual margin, including the concept, the measurement methods, the driving factors and the effects, and the related studies focused on China is also discussed. Based on this, this paper chooses two commonly used indicators to decompose China’s export expansion path model by using product- levels export data. The results indicate that, no matter the analysis of characteristics of time sequence adopted from Feenstra indexes or the cross-sectional comparative analysis by using HK indexes, China’s export expansion mainly comes from intensive margin, and further decomposition result shows that quantity index is dominant in intensive margin. The dynamic evolution analysis on China’s export expansion path using contribution index shows that, China’s export expansion is changing to the model of quantity is dominant, this evolutionary pattern is more and more obvious especially after China’s entry into WTO in 2001.Based on the characteristics of China’s export expansion, then this paper demonstrates the enterprise decision-making process in dual margin of export. Theoretically, market distance, market access cost and income level of importer are the most important factors for an enterprise to decide which market they should enter into. Because they can influence export market areas by affecting an enterprise’s enter cost, by this way they can cause export expansion effects. While factor endowments, technology level and capital input are decisive factors to decide the product combination of export. Firstly, different country has different factors endowments, which decides the country’s comparative advantage on different product. So a country who is rich in skilled labor will export more in the skilled labor concentrated industry, and vice versa. Secondly, the level of technology decides the production costs, which will influence the discretion of export products combination. And at the same time, one country’s technology level also determines differentiation degree of the export product, which will influence export products combination through market monopoly power. Again, a country’s capital investment input will also affect the export products combination. The differences of regional human capital can affect the extensive margin but has no effect on intensive margin. While regional knowledge endowments will affect export intensive margin by having effect on the price of export products. Finally, based on China’s empirical data, the regress result shows that market distance and importing country income level have significant influence on decision-making of market scope of export expansion, but the effect of market access costs is not obvious. In product mix decision-making of export, the effect of trade cost is most important, the second is produce price and the average per capita income is the least, the price of factors has no significant impact on dual margin.In the following part, this paper analyzes the effect of export dual margin model theoretically, and takes empirical test using China’s export data. Firstly, from the influence of export dual margin on comparative advantage, export intensive margin can reinforce comparative advantage, but excessive intensive margin will make the export pattern lock in the inherent comparative advantage; while export extensive margin can weaken the comparative advantage, but it can reduce the possibility of export comparative advantage locked-in low-end. Secondly, the analysis of price index adjustment shows that if export expands along intensive margin, the supply curve will move outward which can make product quantity increase along with prices bring down; while if exports expanse along extensive margin, new product categories can satisfy consumers’ more preference demand, so the demand curve also put outward, which will make export volume increases but prices fell slowly even prices will rise. Thirdly, from the influence of dual margin on export income volatility, export expansion along intensive margin would increase export volatility, and the export risk will bigger, while export extensive margin would decrease export volatility and reduce the risk of export.Based on the above analysis, this paper finally puts forward some relevant policy suggestions to promote China’s export expansion sustainable and healthy development and obtain more trade benefits. Meanwhile, this paper presents the imperfections and the direction of further research.更多还原