【作者】 王晓枫；

【导师】 张先治；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 财务管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 经过近10年的发展,我国城市商业银行已经逐渐发展成熟,有相当多的城市商业银行通过各种途径逐步消化历史上的不良资产,降低不良贷款率,转变经营模式,完成了股份制改革,并在当地占有了相当大的市场份额。其中,更是出现了上海银行这样发展迅速,已经跻身于全球银行500强行列的优秀银行。城市商业银行正逐步发展为一个具有相当数量和规模的银行阶层,与国有控股银行、股份制商业银行共同构成我国金融体系的主体。然而,随着我国经济的不断发展、金融改革的日益深化,部分城市商业银行正面临被边缘化的态势,竞争力不足既是城市商业银行历史遗留问题的集中体现,又是导致商业银行面临现实生存压力的直接原因。努力提升城市商业银行竞争力既是它摆脱困境的内在要求,也是应对激烈竞争的必然选择。因此本文旨在对城市商业银行竞争力进行研究。商业银行是经营货币资金的企业,也是经营风险的企业,其经营风险的特殊性要求商业银行必须加强风险管理,恪守在保证流动性、安全性的前提下实现其盈利,风险管理能力已经成为衡量商业银行竞争力的一个重要标准。商业银行作为我国金融体系的主体,一旦发生破产不仅会影响社会公众利益,而且会影响到金融体系的稳定,甚至危害国民经济安全。商业银行经营风险的外部性特征,使得商业银行必须遵守严格的资本监管要求,构建有效的资本管理体系,资本管理能力也是商业银行竞争力的重要体现。然而,现有的商业银行竞争力评价研究主要以创利能力作为评价的核心,忽视了风险因素,尤其是没有充分考虑资本监管对商业银行竞争力的影响。基于上述认识,本文以企业竞争力理论、企业评价理论以及商业银行竞争力评价的相关理论作为研究的理论基础,从商业银行经营的特殊性出发,结合资源、环境、能力等多方面因素,从经营绩效、风险管理及资本管理三个方面建立商业银行竞争力评价体系,对辽宁城市商业银行竞争力进行了综合评价。本文主要包括这样几部分：第一章为绪论部分,分别从城市商业银行所处的改革阶段、所面临的现实问题以及商业银行竞争力发展轨迹等角度阐述商业银行竞争力评价的价值。然后介绍了本文的研究框架、研究内容及研究方法。第二章为文献综述与实践现状,分别从理论与实践两方面将已有商业竞争力评价研究工作进行分类与梳理,通过对已有研究文献的归类与梳理,探讨从风险管理能力、资本管理能力角度完善已有商业银行竞争力评价体系的必要性与科学性。第三章为理论基础与基本理论分析,首先简要回顾了不同学派关于企业竞争力理论,然后从管理控制理论、目标管理理论及经济利润理论三个方面对企业评价理论做了简要的分析,在此基础上,考虑商业银行经营活动的特殊性,融合金融创新理论及金融脆弱性理论,构建了本文关于商业银行竞争力评价体系框架,即基于经营绩效的竞争力评价、基于风险管理的竞争力评价和基于资本管理的竞争力评价。第四章为经营绩效与商业银行竞争力评价部分,本文采用传统财务绩效因子分析、EVA分析及市场结构分析方法,从资产质量、盈利能力、偿债能力、价值创造能力及市场份额等方面对辽宁省城市商业银行的竞争力进行了评价。第五章为风险管理与商业银行竞争力,鉴于信用风险仍是我国商业银行目前面临的主要风险之一,本文运用或有权益分析法,对商业银行的信用风险违约概率进行了实证分析。第六章为资本管理与商业银行竞争力,通过对资本数量与资本结构变化的分析,评价商业银行资本管理能力的大小同时通过对引起商业银行资本充足率变化的影响因素进行分析,为商业银行再融资与资本优化提供经验支持。第七章为商业银行竞争力的综合评价,在前六章分析的基础上,本章采用灰色关联度分析对辽宁省城市商业银行的竞争力进行综合评价。第八章为研究结论与贡献,通过总结上述各章的研究结果,给出了本文的研究结论及其对城市商业银行的启示,并指出本文的研究贡献及其存在的不足以及今后研究的方向。通过上述研究主要得出以下结论：(1)因子分析发现,资产质量和安全性指标对商业银行竞争力影响要大于盈利性指标,那些资产质量高、安全性指标好的银行,其竞争力相对较强,这和商业银行经营“流动性、安全性、盈利性”原则是相吻合的,即要在保证流动性和安全性的前提下实现盈利。(2)EVA的分析结果与因子分析出现了不太一致的情况。考虑原因主要有：一是EVA的回报率主要是针对股权资本投入,辽宁省几家商业银行资本数量差距较大,一定程度上影响了EVA的评价结果。二是部分银行经营观念上存在一定的偏差,较多关注财务指标的实现,而没有过多地考虑股东的回报,对于价值创造关注不够,这是银行对经营绩效认知局限性的体现,也说明了改进绩效评价体系的必要性。三是单纯的创利指标不足以全面、真实地反映商业银行竞争力。(3)市场结构分析发现,现阶段银行业竞争的侧重点有所偏差。大多数银行还没有脱离传统银行通过放贷营利的模式,非利息收入所占比重太小,银行金融产品创新不足。辽宁省6家城市商业银行在资产、存款和贷款方面存在高度的垄断,而且呈现加强趋势。这也反映出辽宁城市商业银行经营上具有明显的地域特点,经营上基本是以本地市场为主。实际上,2007年及其以前,辽宁省的十几家城市商业银行基本上没有跨地区经营,这6家银行在政策限制下,主要靠占领地方市场,发挥地区优势、为地方中小企业提供金融支持,是它们赖以生存的主要经营战略。(4)通过对辽宁省6家商业银行的信用风险违约概率分析,我们发现,违约概率小的银行,其竞争力排名较前,违约概率大的银行,其竞争力排名较后,说明风险管理能力对银行竞争力有一定的影响。总体分析上看,我国银行违约风险都比较小,各银行违约概率的变化和相互之间的差异说明银行改革一定程度上降低了银行信用风险。这也客观地说明,商业银行股份制改革对于提高风险管理水平,进而提升商业银行竞争力具有积极的作用。(5)资本充足性分析发现,资本管理能力已经成为影响商业银行竞争力评价的基本因素,并对银行的业绩有正面的作用。随着商业银行资产规模的扩大,商业银行将面临资本充足率下降的风险,满足监管资本要求的压力也随之增大,如果商业银行在资产扩张的过程中,信用风险管理能力没有相应提高的话,银行这种盲目扩张的经营方式,从长远来说,不仅不利于银行的发展,反而给银行带来很大的风险。因而,对于满足资本充足率要求的银行,可以通过增加贷款来增加经营绩效,而对于那些没有达到监管资本要求的银行,则因为受到资本充足率的约束而不能进行信贷扩张,进而影响了其竞争力。(6)灰色关联度综合评价结果说明,单纯的经营绩效分析并不能真实地反映商业银行竞争力大小,风险管理能力、资本管理能力在商业银行竞争力评价中发挥着重要作用。因此,商业银行竞争力的评价,应该是商业银行综合实力的体现,而对于那些综合实力较弱那些商业银行则可以通过差异化经营,寻求生存和发展的空间。本文的创新主要体现在以下几个方面：(1)丰富了商业银行竞争力评价理论的内涵。商业银行信用中介的特殊企业性质,使得商业银行必须恪守“流动性、安全性、盈利性”经营原则,统筹配置各种经济资源,从而使得风险管理能力与资本管理能力也成为影响商业竞争力的必要因素。然而现有商业银行竞争力评价研究多以创利能力作为绩效评价的核心,忽视了风险管理能力与资本管理能力对商业银行竞争力的影响,致使商业银行竞争力内涵被人为缩小。本文不仅采用财务指标、EVA用于一般企业竞争力评价指标来评价商业银行竞争力,而且结合风险管理能力与资本管理能力来考察商业银行竞争力,从而提高了对商业银行竞争力评价理论的认识。(2)以城市商业银行为研究对象。现有文献主要集中于对全国性商业竞争力评价的研究,对城市商业银行竞争力评价的系统研究相对不足,原因在于：一是规范的城市商业银行信息披露机制尚未形成,相关数据很难获取,限制了对城市商业银行竞争力评价展开实证研究；二是城市商业银行数量众多,并且往往具有各自发展轨迹与特征,即使能够就某一特定样本展开研究,结论的公允性也容易受到质疑。有鉴于此,本文确立辽宁省城市商业银行竞争力评价为全文研究对象,从而克服了样本选择的难题。此外,作者通过走访政府机关、对商业银行实地调研等多种手段获取一手数据,使实证研究获得了真实的数据支撑,保证了结论的可靠性。(3)构建了多层次、立体式的商业银行竞争力评价方法体系。首先,本文构建了一个包括资源、能力和环境三大商业银行竞争力构成要素的分层次的评价指标体系,解决了现有研究存在的或只评价财务表现,或只关注银行“三性”,使得评价缺乏全面性的问题,并弥补了某些研究指标体系缺乏层次性的不足；其次,在银行经营绩效评价指标中融入了市场结构和资本成本的反映银行经营效率和价值的指标,弥补了现有研究对商业银行竞争力中获利能力的评价只注重账面和历史信息,缺乏对未来的预见性,忽视资本成本等诸多缺陷；其三,有针对性地采取多种经济计量方法展开实证研究,如,采用因子分析、面板数据计量分析和EVA分析、或有权益分析等研究方法相结合来评价商业银行的财务业绩、市场结构、价值创造能力、风险管理能力及资本管理能力,并采用小样本下灰色关联度对辽宁省城市商业银行的竞争力进行了综合评价,提高了评价的科学性和可靠性。更多还原

【Abstract】 City commercial banks in China have gradually become full-fledged financial intermediaries through ten years of development. Many city commercial banks explored every avenue to expel non-performing assets left over from prior management, reduced their percentage of non-performing loans, changed their business type and then completed their shareholding reform while claiming possession of a high market share. This includes Shanghai bank which developed rapidly and had joint holdings of sound banks in the top 500 worldwide. City commercial banks are gradually developing and could become a bank class with as great a number and size; composing the body of the Chinese financial system along with State-holding banks and joint-equity banks. But, with the development of Chinese economy and the deepening of financial system reform, some city banks are confronted with the prospect of being marginalized. Lack of competitiveness is both the epitome of the problems left by former financial environment and the proximate cause leading these banks to face intense pressure merely to survive. Therefore, promoting city commercial banks’ competitiveness is the primary motivation for getting through difficult, financial conditions and also their best option to cope with competition. This paper will study the competitiveness of city commercial banks.A commercial bank is an enterprise which operates monetary capital and manages financial risk. The peculiarity of their operating risk requires commercial banks to reinforce their risk management and abide by their requirements to be profitable while maintaining adequate liquidity and safety. Their capacity for risk management has become an important standard in evaluating the competitiveness of commercial banks. Being integral to the Chinese financial system, if commercial banks were to go bankrupt, it would not only directly affect the interests of the general public but also influence the stability of the entire Chinese financial system; perhaps even endanger national security. The externalities of operating risks forced commercial banks to comply with the demands of strict capital supervision and to structure an effective capital management system. The capacity for capital management has now become a prerequisite for the competitiveness of commercial banks. However, contemporary studies that evaluate the competitiveness of commercial banks focus primarily on profit-making while ignoring these vital risk factors and pay virtually no attention to the Capital Adequacy Supervision effect on commercial bank’s competitiveness.Based on the above knowledge, This paper’s basic theory is dependent upon "Corporation Competitiveness Theory", "Corporation Evaluation Theory" and other commercial bank competitiveness evaluation-related theories derived from the uniqueness of commercial banks and combine many relevant factors including: resources, environment and capacity, and the establishment of an evaluation system of commercial banks’ competitiveness from the standpoints of operational performance, risk management and capital management so as to comprehensively evaluate Liaoning commercial bank’s total market competitiveness.This paper contains eight chapters:The first chapter is an introduction and includes the value of relevant research from the perspectives of reforms history, current problems and its record of development. Then it introduces its framework, contents and methods. The second chapter is a literature review showing the current, common practice. It classifies and tidy existing researches from theoretical and practical. This was done to discuss the necessity and possibility of consummating the existing evaluation system of commercial bank’s competitiveness from the standpoint of adequate risk management and capital availability. Chapter Three is basic theory analysis. Firstly, this chapter reviews the corporation competitiveness theory according to several schools of thought. Secondly, it reviews the corporation evaluation theory mainly from management control theory, target management theory and economic profit theory. This chapter takes into consideration the unique situation of commercial banks in order to establish commercial bank competitiveness evaluation systems through analysis of financial innovation theory and financial fragility theory. These systems are evaluations of commercial bank competitiveness based on performance, risk management and capital management. Chapter Four evaluates commercial bank competitiveness from a business performance perspective. This chapter evaluates Liaoning commercial banks’competitiveness from the aspects of asset quality, profitability, debt repayment ability, value creation potential and market share utilizing factor analysis, EVA methodology and market structure analysis. Chapter Five’s subject is risk management and the evaluation of commercial bank competitiveness. This chapter utilizes contingent claims analysis to determine commercial banks’Credit Risk Default Probability in light of the fact that credit risk is still the primary risk associated with commercial banking in China. The subject of Chapter Six is capital management and the evaluation of commercial banks’ competitiveness. This chapter evaluates their capacity for capital management by analyzing the changes in capital quantity and structure. It also analyzes the factors that influence these changes in order to provide a useful theory for refinancing and to optimize their capital structures. Chapter Seven addresses commercial bank competitiveness evaluation synthetically. Using the first six chapters as its basis, this chapter then goes on to use the Grey correlative degree analysis in comprehensive evaluations of Liaoning commercial banks’competitiveness. Chapter Eight is the conclusion and contribution. In this ending chapter, the conclusions are drawn based on the aforementioned study. Also it points out its contribution, weakness and the future study direction. According to the above, the conclusions can be drawn as following:(1) From the factors analysis we can find that the commercial banks’ competitiveness is affected by the indicators of assets quality and safety more so than the profitability indicators. In other words, those banks with high assets quality and safety will be more competitive. This conclusion is joined with the commercial banks’operating principles of liquidity, safety and profitability so that profit can be realized on the solid foundation of liquidity and safety.(2) The results of the EVA method are at variance with those of factor analysis. This can be explained by considering that the EVA method mainly considers shareholder return but there are big differences amongst the Liaoning city commercial banks with regard to their levels of capital. Another reason is that some commercial banks pay more attention to their financial indicators than they do their shareholder return and value creation. This means most commercial banks know little about the true concept of performance. It also means simple financial ratio analysis cannot present the city commercial banks’competitiveness objectively. It is, therefore, necessary to improve the competitiveness evaluation system in order to compensate for these shortcomings.(3) The market structure analysis shows that the operating pattern of most commercial banks still involves the traditional earning spread between depositor and borrower interest rates with a low proportion in non-interest income; exposing a lack of innovation of financial products. Six city commercial banks in Liaoning account for the majority of all assets, deposits and loans in their respective cities. This reflects the fact that the target market of most city commercial banks is localized. In fact, before 2007, all of Liaoning city commercial banks did not operate trans-regionally; they were required to operate within their own cities exclusively. Occupying the local market by providing financial support for local small to medium-sized firms was their main operation strategy.(4) From the analysis of default risk probability, we can find that as default probability decreases both risk management capability and competitiveness increases. This means that risk management has a strong influence on commercial banks’ competitiveness. In general, the default risk probability of most commercial banks is relatively low. The change in the default risk probability over time and its difference between commercial banks reflect that banking reform has reduced risk. This is also an indication that the reform that instituted a stock holding system for banking has been effective in increasing the banks’ risk management capability; also strengthening the competitiveness of city commercial banks.(5) The analysis of capital adequacy rate shows that the capability of capital management is a critical factor in the competitiveness of commercial banks and it has a positive effect on the performance of commercial banks. With the expansion of asset size, the commercial banks are exposed to the risk of insufficient capital and the increasing pressure of supervision. If the commercial banks don’t improve their capability of risk management, unprecedented expansion will make the commercial banks more risky in the long-run. Therefore, the commercial banks which have met the requirement of capital adequacy rate can improve their performance by increasing loans. But for those which have not met the requirement of the capital adequacy rate, expansion of their credit base is not an option; its competitiveness would be under the influence of capital regulation.(6) From the analysis of Grey Association Degree, we find that simple performance evaluation cannot reflect the competitiveness of the city commercial banks objectively. The capability of risk management and capital management play important roles in evaluating the competitiveness of the banks, therefore, the comprehensive strength of commercial banks should always be taken into consideration. The analysis of Grey Association Degree also tells us that small banks with weak competitiveness should differentiate their competition strategy in order to survive and develop. This paper contributes in the following aspects:(1) Deepens the relevance of evaluation theory of commercial banks’ competitiveness. Commercial banks are intermediaries of capital which means they must obey the operating principles of liquidity, safety and profitability while allocating economic resources optimally. Therefore their capacity for risk management and capital management are key factors in the competitiveness of commercial banks. But current research regarding the evaluation of commercial banks’competitiveness focuses on profitability at the expense of risk management and capital management thereby narrowing the concept of commercial banks’ competitiveness. This paper not only uses financial ratios and EVA analysis, (which are used for general corporations to evaluate the competitiveness of commercial banks), but also considers the factors of risk management and capital management so as to enrich the theory and usefulness of the evaluation of commercial banks’ competitiveness.(2) The object of study is the city commercial banking sector. Most current literature focuses on research of the state-owned commercial banks to the exclusion of city commercial banks. Research on the competitiveness of city commercial banks is insufficient. The reasons may include the following three points:(a) The state-owned commercial banks comprise the main body of the Chinese banking system and the key focus of the commercial banks’reform. (b) The financial data of city commercial banks are not available because of an unsound information disclosure system. (c) The diverse development history of the various city commercial banks makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions. Therefore, this paper chooses Liaoning city commercial banks for its research samples and focuses on the competitiveness of the city commercial banks so as to solve the problem of sample selection. Furthermore, this paper uses primary data through the first-hand investigation of the relevant government agency and the commercial banks themselves, making the research more empirical and the conclusions more reasonable, robust and reliable.(3) Establishing a multi-layered, stereoscopic evaluation system of commercial banks’competitiveness. Firstly, this paper establishes a multi-layered evaluation system which includes the three main factors of commercial banks’competitiveness: resources, capability and environment. Hence, it solves the problems of current evaluation systems which either focus on the financial performance of commercial banks or merely study the operation principles of liquidity, safety and profitability rendering the evaluation incomplete. Secondly, this paper draws on new value factors, (market structure and capital cost), into its evaluation index which reflect operating efficiencies of commercial banks. This compensates for the typical shortcoming of conventional research which emphasizes statement value, historical information and profit and neglects market value and capital. Thirdly, a variety of methods have been used appropriately in this paper. It adopts factor analysis, panel data model analysis, EVA analysis and contingent claims analysis; combining these methods to evaluate commercial banks’performance, market structure, value creation potential, risk management and capital management. It also uses the method of Grey correlative degree analysis to comprehensively evaluate Liaoning commercial banks’ competitiveness in order to make the evaluation more empirical and reliable.更多还原