【作者】 冯菲；

【导师】 张彤玉；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 政治经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 货币流通速度,是产出或交易量与货币存量之比,它联接了实体经济的产出与金融经济的货币,是货币经济学中的一个重要议题。本文围绕我国货币流通速度这一中心论题,运用结构分析方法和实证计量经济学分析方法,从交易货币流通速度、部门货币流通速度以及货币政策等方面对我国货币流通速度展开分析。首先,第二章为货币流通速度理论回顾,主要对货币流通速度理论演变进行了一个历史考察。交易流通速度与收入流通速度概念来自货币数量理论史中两种截然区分的方法——交易分析方法与现金余额分析方法,本文从理论渊源上澄清了货币流通速度研究由交易流通速度向收入流通速度的转变过程中的相关概念,为以后各章的讨论提供一个理论基础和框架。第三章为我国交易货币流通速度分析。是货币流通速度的两个重要概念。近年来由于我国收入流通速度的准确性和可靠性日益下降,国内学者开始更加关注货币的交易速度。有关交易总量的测度是交易流通速度研究的难点。本文对我国1992-2008年交易流通速度的测算做了初步尝试。研究发现,我国交易流通速度的波动具有较明显的顺周期特征,且2000年以后,交易流通速度与收入流通速度的同步波动性消失,二者出现发散趋势。中间产品交易和金融资产交易的扩大是二者出现发散趋势的重要原因。交易流通速度分析可以更好地指示货币需求的变化,为我国货币供给规划以及货币政策的实施提供参照。第四章为我国部门货币流通速度分析。本章基于拓展的交易方程式提出总体货币流通速度的概念,总货币流通速度的变化可以从两个方面进行分析：各部门货币流通速度的变化以及各部门交易货币持有量占总交易货币量的比重的变化。本文根据我国资金流量表的分部门结构,分析了企业、居民、政府三个主要经济部门货币流通速度的特征,并对三部门交易货币持有量占总交易货币量的比重变化对总体货币流通速度的影响做了分析。总体货币流通速度的分部门考察为我们揭示狭义货币流通速度的变动规律提供了新的视角。第五章至第七章在上述几章研究基础上探讨了我国货币流通速度变化的若干政策含义。第五章为货币流通速度与货币政策中介目标。1996年以来,我国开始将货币供应量作为货币政策的中介目标,探讨货币供应量作为我国货币政策中介目标的合理性具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文首先考察了货币供应量作为中介目标的理论基础,我国以及战后西方主要国家货币政策中介目标的演变。在对货币政策中介目标选择的历史考察基础上,认为目前货币供应量作为我国货币政策中介目标仍然具有适用性,但同时应该引入信贷规模作为我国货币政策中介变量。第六章从企业部门货币流通速度角度考察了我国货币政策结构性问题。在我国,信贷市场是货币政策传导的主渠道,优化信贷结构是我国货币政策发挥结构调整作用的最主要的手段。而当前我国信贷结构的主要矛盾是我国商业银行信贷集中问题。本章分析了我国商业银行信贷集中的主要表现形式、成因和不利影响,并提出改进我国商业银行信贷集中的若干对策建议。第七章从政府部门货币流通速度考察了货币政策与财政政策的协调问题。以往财政政策与货币政策结合的研究主要从国债管理政策和财政投融资政策方面展开,对财政性存款作为财政政策和货币政策的结合点的论述较少,本章从财政性存款角度考察财政政策对货币政策有效性的影响,将国库集中支付制度改革纳入我国货币流通速度部门分析,考察了近年来我国机关团体存款的迅速增加引起的货币供应量的结构变动,分析了机关团体存款快速增长和政府部门货币流通速度下降的原因,并提出了提升我国政府部门货币流通速度的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Velocity of money,which is ratio of output or exchange number to money and links real economy with financial economy,has been a significant topic of money economics.The dissertation will analyze the monetary velocity during Chinese economy transition, by exerting the way of structural analysis and economitrics, through the study of transaction velocity of money,sector velocity of money and monetary policy.Firstly,this paper gives a review of the theoretical researches on monetary velocity,obtains several summarys.Transaction velocity and income velocity of money come from two distinct traditions of the quantity theory of money——the transaction approach and the cash balance approach.This paper clarifies some relevant concepts in the transition from transaction velocity to income velocity in the study of monetary velocity, laying a theoretical foundation and framework for the following chapters.Next,Chapter 3,"The Analysis of China’s Transaction Velocity". Transaction velocity and income velocity of money are two important concepts in the study of monetary velocity.In recent years transaction velocity gets more concerns because of the instability of income velocity. This chapter analyzes the trend of transaction velocity of money in China based on the statistics from 1992 to 2008.We find that the transaction velocity in China fluctuates procyclically. Meanwhile, the synchronicity of the fluctuation of transaction and income velocities in china disappears after 2000. This can be attribute to the increase of intermediate goods transactions and financial assets transactions after 2000.The analysis of the transaction velocity can indicate money demand and add to our understandings of the planning of money supply targets and the implementation of monetary policy.Then, Chapter 4," The Analysis of China’s Sector Velocities".This chapter presents the concept of aggregate velocity which is based on the extended identity of exchange. The changes in aggregate velocity can be discussed in two ways:the changes in the velocity of each economic sector and changes in the shares of the total money stock held by each economic sector.Based on the Flow of Funds Accounts of China,this paper analyzes the monetary velocity of nonfinancial corporate, consumer and government sectors,and also makes a analysis of the effect on aggregate velocity of weight shifts of total money held by the three sectors.The analysis of aggregate velocity divided by economic sectors can add to our understanding of the behavior of narrow velocity of circulation (GNP/M1)Finally,on the basis of the above studies, this paper explores some policy implications of the changes of China’s monetary velocity and draws some following conclusions. Chapter 5 discusses monetary velocity and the intermediate target of monetary policy.Since1996, China began to use money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy. Therefore, it has the theoretical and realistic significance to further discuss the effectiveness of the money supply as the monetary policy intermediate target.This paper first investigates the theoretical basis and the evolutionary process of money supply as the intermediate target in western countries and china, and argues that money supply still has the advantage to be the intermediate target in China,but we should consider to use loans as a intermediate variable in monetary policy.Chapter 6 discusses the structural problem of Chinese monetary policy,in the perspective of the velocity of corporate sector.In china.loan market is the main channel of the transmission of monetary policy.The main problem of the present loan market in china is the problem of loan concentration.This chapter illustrates the present situation of loan concentration and then gives an analysis of the causes, and reveals the harmful influence of loan concentration on economy and finance. Accordingly, the corresponding countermeasures to solve the loan concentration are proposed.Chapter 7 discusses the coordination of monetary policy and financial policy in China,in the perspective of the velocity of government sector. Previous studies about the coordination of monetary policy and financial policy are mainly about policy of Fiscal Investment and Loan and policy of management of national debt. Fiscal deposits as an intersection of monetary policy and financial policy is rarely referred to.This chapter discusses the affection of financial policy on monetary policy in the perspective of fiscal deposits,where the reform of Treasury Single Account is introduced to the analysis of the velocity of government sector. This chapter also analyses the causes of the sharp increase of Deposits of Government Departments & Organizations in recent years. Accordingly, the corresponding policy implications to accelerate the velocity of government sector are proposed.更多还原