【作者】 谭映宇；

【导师】 郭佩芳； 刘容子；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 海洋资源与权益综合管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 随着陆域资源的短缺、人口增长较快、生态损害和环境恶化等问题日趋严重,海洋开发力度不断加大,海洋在国民经济社会发展中的地位越来越重要。同时伴随着海洋资源浪费、环境污染、生态破坏等问题,海洋资源、生态和环境之间的矛盾越来越成为我国海洋经济可持续发展的重要制约因素。在这种背景下,迫切需要研究海洋资源、生态和环境的承载能力,以实现海洋经济的可持续发展。本文在前人研究的基础上详细探讨了海洋资源、生态和环境承载力的概念、内涵和特征,建立了以系统动力学(System Dynamic, SD)模型、状态评价模型为主的海洋资源-生态-环境承载力复合系统研究方法,实现了区域海洋资源、生态和环境承载力的分析、模拟、预测,对比和决策支持。并以渤海湾区域为例进行实证研究,为海洋开发与管理以及区域协调发展提供评价和决策支持的技术方法。具体内容如下：1、在海域承载力研究的基础上,研究探讨了海洋资源和生态环境承载力的概念和内涵及相关理论,将海洋生态系统服务功能纳入承载力要素研究中。从可持续发展理论、承载力递阶原理、承载力约束机制以及承载力的评价理论等交叉融合的思想出发,研究海洋资源、海洋生态、海洋环境和一定区域的人类经济活动,以期建立起不同系统之间的相互作用体系,为海洋资源、生态和环境承载力综合评价提供理论依据。2、构建了以渤海湾为目标区域的海洋资源和生态环境系统动力学(SD)模型(包括“人类社会经济发展”、“海洋资源供给能力”和“海洋生态环境纳污能力”三大子系统为主要模块)、状态空间评价模型,结合生态系统服务功能价值评估等要素研究方法,构建海洋资源和生态环境承载力复合系统研究方法,为海洋资源和生态环境承载力研究提供了具体的技术手段。3、研究分析环渤海湾区域(包括天津、唐山、沧州、滨州和东营)社会经济发展、海洋资源供给,海洋生态环境质量的状况和发展,结果表明渤海湾区域是我国重要的经济集聚区,海洋资源及其丰富,海洋环境污染日益严重。4、研究构建包括人类社会经济发展、海洋资源供给能力、海洋生态和环境纳污能力三大类别层,十大要素层的海洋资源和生态环境承载力一般指标体系。针对渤海湾区域,采用状态空间评价模型,确定三种不同的赋权方法,对渤海湾区域2003-2007年海洋资源和生态环境承载状态进行评价研究。结果显示,2003-2007年,渤海湾区域海洋资源和生态环境整体承处于可承载状态,承载力值在1-2之间,2005年承载力值略低于1,虽然整体处于可承载状态,但基本接近临界值,可承载空间很小。5、采用系统动力学模型模拟了渤海湾区域2008-2020社会经济、环境污染和海洋资源产量的变化趋势。结果表明该区域城镇人口逐年增加,农村人口逐年减少,城镇化率也呈现逐年提高；区域经济总量、海洋产业总产值均呈指数增长；产业结构调整升级,接近中等发达国家水平。废水及主要污染物COD和氨氮的入海排放量逐年降低,海洋水质状况逐年改善。海洋原油产量呈现先增长后降低的趋势,预计在2014年左右实现最高年产量。海洋天然气产量呈现逐年上升并区域稳定的趋势。6、结合渤海湾区域相关规划,设计了现状发展方式和优化发展方式两种预测情景,对渤海湾区域海洋资源和生态环境承载状态进行了预测分析。结果显示,按现状发展方式,“十三五”期间渤海湾区域海洋资源和生态环境处于超载状态；而在控制人口增长速度,减少入海污染物排放量、加大人类对海洋生态环境支持力度,恢复和提高海洋生态系统服务功能的优化发展方式下,渤海湾区域海洋资源和生态环境承载力处于可持续承载状态,超载状态可以避免。7、计算了渤海湾海洋生态系统服务功能价值。从2003-2007年渤海湾海洋生态系统服务功能价值占渤海湾区域GDP中的比重呈逐年下降的趋势,比重分别为6.58%,5.56%,4.49%,3.94%,3.52%。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the review and summary of the existing research in the field of carrying capacity, this dissertation discusses in detail the concept of the Carrying Capacity of Marine Resources, Ecology and Environment (CMREE), its connotation and features. It establishes a method of assessing Carrying Capacity of Marine Resources, Ecology and Environment (CMREE), by combining system dynamic model and state-space model. The assessment of regional CMREE is analyzed, simulated, predicted, and compared. The purpose of decision supporting is achieved. The positive research is conducted in the Bohai Bay Rim. This study provides for marine development and management, and regional coordination of the development with a set of evaluation and decision-supporting methods. Specific research results are as follows:●In terms of the basic concepts and basic theory, this dissertation discusses the concept, connotation and relevant theory of Carrying Capacity of Marine Resources, Ecology and Environment (CMREE) based on the study of marine carrying capacity. And marine ecosystem services are considered as an element of the carrying capacity. From the perspective of sustainable development, hierarchical principle and constraint mechanism of carrying capacity, and the assessment theory of carrying capacity, marine resources, marine ecology, marine environment and a certain region of human economic activity are studied in order to establish the interaction systems among different systems and to lay the theoretical foundation for CMREE evaluation.●The System Dynamics Model and state-space model of Bohai Bay CMREE are established, combined with element research methods such as value evaluation of ecosystem-services. This creates a system approach for assessing CMREE.●The socioeconomic development of Bohai Bay rim including Tianjin, Tangshan, Cangzhou, Binzhou and Dongying, marine resources supply, and the state and quality of marine environment in Bohai Bay are analyzed. The results show that the Bohai Bay region is an important economic area, rich in marine resources, but marine pollution is getting worse.●Three categories of criteria and ten elements are created as indices to assess the CMREE in Bohai Bay. For the Bohai Bay area, using state-space evaluation model, three different weighting methods are determined to assess the CMREE of Bohai Bay region from 2003 to 2007. The results showed that, from 2003 to 2007, the Bohai Bay region’s marine resources, ecology and environment can continue carrying the loads; and the capacity value is between 1 and 2; this value in 2005 is slightly lower than 1, although the overall load in the available state but it is very close to the threshold.●The system dynamics model is used to simulate the trend of socio-economy, environmental pollution, marine resources production in the Bohai Bay region from 2008 to 2020. The results indicate that the urban population of the region will increase year by year while the rural population will decrease annually, the urbanization rate thus will increase gradually; regional economic output and gross output value of marine industries will increase exponentially; industrial restructure will be upgraded, close to the middle level of developed countries; wastewater and the fluxes of the main pollutants into the ocean such as COD and ammonia nitrogen will decrease year by year, marine water quality will be gradually improved; marine crude oil production will increase at first and then decrease, meanwhile the highest annual output will be expected to be in 2014; marine natural gas production will increase year by year at first and gradually become stable in the overall trend.●Based on some related plans in the Bohai Bay area, two scenarios are designed to predict CMREE in this region, namely, business as usual v.s. optimized development. The results imply that the marine resources and ecological environment of the Bohai Bay will be overloaded in the scenario of business as usual whereas they will be sustainable in the scenario of optimized development, which will control the population growth, reduce pollutant fluxes, increase investment in marine environmental protection, and recover and improve the marine ecosystem services.●Marine ecosystem service values in Bohai Bay are calculated. From 2003 to 2007, the value of marine ecosystem services accounted for the proportion of GDP in the Bohai Bay region showed a declining trend, the proportion was 6.58%,5.56%, 4.49%,3.94%,3.52%, respectively.更多还原