中国经济转型绩效的成本—收益分析

【作者】 陈丹丹；

【导师】 任保平；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 转型经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 自20世纪80年代开始,原社会主义国家基于计划经济效率的困境纷纷放弃计划经济制度朝市场体制迈进。这场大规模的经济体制转型涉及世界30多个国家和地区,包括原苏联、东欧12国以及中国、越南等国,约1／4的世界人口卷入了这场变革。转型以来,各国转型道路差异很大,绩效迥异,对转型的认识也不尽相同,如何评估转型绩效,以便修正、指导下一步转型是转型经济学一个重要命题。本文从成本——收益视角出发,试图通过建立经济转型绩效的成本收益分析框架,从而科学地评估中国30多年来经济转型的绩效。国内外关于经济转型绩效的相关研究成果在很大程度上深化了对经济转型绩效的认识,但是不同国家由于转型任务、初始条件以及所处的发展阶段不同,构成其市场运行的制度基础并不一致,因此传统惯用的比较研究方法缺乏相应的科学性。而且一些绩效评价缺乏可操作的量化指标,主观评价的成分较大。同时市场化改革并不是中国经济转型内容的全部,用市场化改革的速度来衡量中国经济转型绩效难免缩小了对转型的认识。因此,在对以往有关经济转型绩效研究的文献进行梳理的基础之上,本文将从一个新的视角提出关于经济转型绩效的成本-收益分析框架,并以此分析框架为理论基础构建经济转型绩效的评价模型,实现对经济转型绩效的科学评价。作为大规模制度变迁的中国经济转型在取得收益的同时也必然付出一定的成本。中国经济转型30多年以来取得了巨大的成就,但随着中国经济向后转型时代的迈进,原来被推迟、忽略、潜伏的矛盾日益显现,经济转型成本激升成为目前不得不关注和需要着力解决的重要命题。在界定了经济转型成本的内涵和分析维度的基础上,通过设计经济转型成本的测度指标体系,采用AHP统计技术方法测度了1978年—2009年中国经济转型成本的综合指数。在此基础上结合使用HP滤波法、Fisher最优分割法以及指数平滑法分析了32年来中国经济转型成本的变动趋势及阶段性变化特征,并对未来经济转型成本做出了预测。与此同时采用相同的方法对中国经济转型收益的演变趋势也进行了研究。在分别得到了中国经济转型成本和经济转型收益各自变化趋势的基础上,本文采用数据包络分析方法,通过建立时间序列的DEA模型测度了1978-2009年中国经济转型绩效的变动水平。并且对经济转型绩效做了进一步的分解研究,详细分析了经济转型绩效的变动特征。实证研究的结果显示中国经济转型的综合绩效正在不断地逼近效率前沿,中国经济转型已经进入到一个全新的后转型时代。后转型时代是从以关注经济转型收益为重点的生存型转型模式向关注公平与可持续发展为重点的发展型转型模式转变的过程。后转型时代以和谐、建设、一体化和融合化为标志,致力于构建和谐、共同富裕、民生本位和稳定的经济社会发展体系。后转型时代需要着力解决好经济转型成本的问题,在保持收益递增的前提下走上一条低成本的经济转型道路。为了解决后转型时代面临的经济转型成本问题,需要通过控制和合理分摊逐渐激升的经济转型成本来促进经济转型绩效在长期中的可持续增长。本文分别从成本控制与成本分摊的角度设计了后转型时代低成本经济转型的路径选择,为后转型时代实现社会公平和经济可持续发展提供了理论支持。经济转型成本是否能够得到合理的分摊是后转型时代社会各利益团体在承担经济转型的代价时能否获得相对公平的重要影响因素。经济转型成本的合理分摊需要依靠与之相适应的制度安排来实现。后转型时代构建低成本经济转型路径的政策取向必须注意处理好“公平”与“效率”的关系,使更多的人能够分享到经济转型的成果,并以实现增进全体公民的福利作为政策设计的长远目标。更多还原

【Abstract】 From the 80’s of last century, the former socialist countries abandoned the planned economy system one after another for the market system due to their low economic performance under the planning system. There were more than thirty countries involved in this large scale institution change, including Soviet Union, twelve East European countries, China and Vietnam, whose population occupied around about one forth of the whole world. Different countries varied in their ways, performance and cognition since the transition started. How to assess transition performance in a correct way, so that can help us modify and direct further transition, which will be an important proposition for the transition economics. This article start from the cost-benefit point of view, try to establish the cost-benefit analytic framework thereby assessing China’s transition performance in its past thirty years time scientifically.The document studies about economic transition performance both home and abroad deepened the understanding of this issue largely. However, owing to the difference in mission, initial conditions, developmental stages and institutional basis, traditional comparative study method lack the scientific, and some assessment is subjective in devoid of quantized indicators. Meanwhile, market reform cannot be the whole thing in China’s transition; use the pace of market reform to measure China’s transition must lessen the cognition of transition. Accordingly, after reviewing the existing document studies, a new cost-benefit analytic framework about transition performance will be put forward in this essay. Moreover, it is used to construct the model of performance assessment in order to realize the scientific evaluation of China’s economic transition.As a large-scale institutional changes transiting from planned economy to market economy, get wins as well as pay costs. China achieves huge success from its economic transition in the past thirty years. However, those problems were put off, ignored and hidden emerges gradually, which represent as proliferated economic transitional costs and appeals to reformers’attention. In this paper, the author definite the intension of economic transition costs at first, then devise the index system and use the AHP to measure the general index of economic transition costs from 1978 to 2009. Based on the general costs index, the author use HP filter, Fisher optimal division and Exponential Smoothing methods respectively to analysis the fluctuation characters in trend, historical periods of economic transition costs, and forecast economic transition costs in the future years. In the meanwhile, same method used to study the evolving trend of China’s economic transition benefit. After obtaining the data both of cost and benefit, this text adopt DEA technique to set up the model of time series DEA and estimate the fluctuation of China’s economic transitional performance from 1978 to 2009. Furthermore, a deepen decomposition research on economic transition performance doing after that, and the fluctuation traits represented in a particular way.The empirical studies show that China’s transition performance approaching the efficient frontier continuously, which indicates that China has been stepped into a whole new phase-the post-transition age. It is a turning process from subsistence transition pattern which focus on benefit to the develop transition mode which stress on sustainable development. The flag in the post-transition age lies in harmony, construction, integration and aggregation, which have strong feature in constructing social economic development system focus on harmony, common prosperity, people’s livelihood and social stability. The problem of transition costs must be solved properly in the post-transition age, at the premise of keeping benefit step into a low cost transition road.To figure out the problem of transition cost, cost control and apportion methods should be used to maintain sustainable performance growth in long run. In this essay, low cost path determinations are set out through the view of cost control and apportion, and theory support is provided to realize social equality and economic sustainable development.Whether the economic costs could be allocated properly will affect the fairness of specific interest groups when they undertake the transition price. Fair cost allocation needs matched institution arrangement to realize. The relation between fairness and efficiency should be disposed rightly when construct the low cost transition path in the post-transition age, which allows more people can enjoy the outcome from economic transition and aimed at increasing civil welfare in polices design.更多还原