【作者】 王毅；

【导师】 张宝仁；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 世界经济， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 中俄经贸关系已经成为世界经济体系中的主要组成部分,如何处理中俄经贸关系中存在的问题,更深层次推进中俄经贸关系的发展,不仅影响中俄两国经济运行,而且对世界经济将产生一定的的影响。中俄两国经贸合作关系源远流长,早在20世纪40年代末起前苏联就是中国最重要的经贸合作伴。此间中苏虽然由于政治上的分歧,使两国间的经贸合作受到影响,但经贸合作始终没有中断过。进入20世纪90年代后中俄经贸关系开始恢复,两国间的经贸合作又开始进入稳定快速的发展时期。中国经济在历经改革开放的30年间取得了迅速发展,截止2008年底中国外贸额已稳居世界首位。俄罗斯自2000年5月普京开始执政后,其国内经济稳步回升,已经摆脱过去十年留下的危机。截止2008年底俄罗斯外汇储备已超过4800亿美元,居世界第三;如果按人均占有量计算,俄外汇储备已居世界第一,俄罗斯已经成为全球最大经济体之一。2008年3月俄罗斯联邦总统大选“梅普组合”高票当选,标志着俄罗斯进入梅普时代,其现实的目标是,成为世界最大的经济体、建设发达的现代民主制度、后工业化经济体制和世界金融中心。2009年全球经济持续低迷以及能源价格走低给俄罗斯经济造成强烈冲击。据俄经济发展部公布的数字显示,2008年俄罗斯国内生产总值增长5.6%,增速比2007年下降了2.5个百分点。虽然国际金融危机令俄罗斯经济形势变得相当复杂,但中俄经贸合作快速发展的条件已经具备,中俄两国经贸关系发展具有潜力。论文主体部分从以下几方面对中俄经贸合作关系的发展变化进行了较为全面深入的探讨。首先,对中俄经贸合作的环境、背景进行了分析,然后,通过大量翔实的数据资料论述了中俄经贸合作的发展过程、现状、特点、原因、存在的问题以及双方经贸合作的政策取向、基本战略、未来发展前景等。并在此基础上,提出了中俄经贸合作中中国应该坚持的最基本原则及战略思考的方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 Over the past 10 years, Russia’s economy has maintained rapid growth, but mainly due to soaring international market oil prices. Could the economic growth keep rising? The direction of the Russian economy is relevant to its future status in the world economy. Russia is still the only Great Nation which is excluded from the World Trade Organization (WTO). By what status Russia will have as it integrates into the economic globalization process– as a powerful economic center, or still in a subordinate position as a supplier of raw materials for energy– will determine the geo-economic varied changes of Europe and Asia. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, heavily influenced by the Eastern and Western cultures, therefore pays more attention to Russia’s Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy, and the relation between East and West. Whether Russia can re-rise or firmly establish its strong position in world politics will be related to the development of a multi-polar world.This paper is divided into five sections of ten chapters to dissertate the relation of the economy and trade between China and Russia.The structure of section 1 is as follows: In this paper, the first section (From Chapter one to Chapter five), chapter I is an Introduction and it briefly introduces the background of the problems, namely the background on choosing the article, theoretical meaning, and the innovative points of the Study. Chapter II is a general analysis on the theory of international trade and investment. It presents the theory of trade and investment; foreign trade development strategy thought by Albarkin; self-organization theory of Bogdanov. Chapter III demonstrates the practical basis for Sino-Russian Economic and Trade Relations. The practical basis between the two countries displays the economic structure and market demand characteristics, and shows their respective international comparative advantage. It predicts that with the economic development and the adjustment of demand structure between the two countries in 2010, China-Russian bilateral economic and trade balance should be a common aspiration. Chapter IV describes the development of Sino-Russian bilateral trade, its change and characteristics, and the history of the development in bilateral trade and investment. Chapter V presents the development of Sino-Russian mutual investments, and its change and characteristics. In the first section, the following content is given: According to the Russian Economic Development and Trade Ministry’s latest forecast report, Russia’s GDP will maintain approximately 3% growth in 2010.The foreign exchange and gold reserves of Russia was 303.73 billion U.S. dollars in 2007, and 534.422 billion U.S. dollars in 2008, occupying the world’s third position, first in the world on the basis of per capita. Russia’s economy will enter a period of rapid growth; its economic and social development strategic plan will achieve a historic leap and qualitative change in the economic sphere by 2020. Russia will attract a boom in foreign investment, while Russia also has the capability of attracting foreign investment capital, Russian enterprises can invest in the good potential of Chinese markets. The capacity of China’s foreign investment has been increasingly strengthened. According to economist DENG Ning’s theory, the development period of China’s current foreign direct investment belongs to a more obvious stage for the transfer and upgrade in effectiveness of the domestic industry. In China’s domestic consumption fields, the light industry chain has transformed to a fully mature stage. The fields of textile and garments, household electronic appliance, light industry and electronics compose the leading production and technology. The enterprises have a level of advanced management experience, and the construction of marketing and after-sales service network has been gradually improved. They have already got the capacity of entering the Russian market.Section 2 (From Chapter VI to VII), the brief introduction is as follows: Chapter VI shows the evolution of Russian economic and trade policies toward China, introduces the development of the policy context, process and effect analysis. Chapter VII discusses the existing problems of Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation and the methods. It puts forward the problems, analyzes the reasons and discusses how to deal with the problems. The second describes the following: demonstrate that the Russian government of the Medvedev-Putin Era continues to emphasize that with China should link the reality with historical traditions.(1) The Russian government of the Medvedev-Putin Era strives to maintain the Russian government’s position and influence in the CIS countries;(2) The Russian government of the Medvedev-Putin Era stressed actively developing relations with East Asia, including China, to implement a flexible and practical balanced policy of East and West. In April 2002, Putin has put forward the new earth geo-strategic thinking of "arc of world stability". Russian economic and trade policies towards China in the Russian government of the Medvedev-Putin Era shows Putin’s flexible and practical policy of balancing the East and West: (1) use "stable arc" instead of "turbulence zone" to create a stable "big periphery"; (2) by the realization of geo-political stability, promote the geo-economic cooperation. Russia of the Medvedev-Putin Era will continue to implement market diversification strategies, and the foreign trade focus is the EU, the CIS, and China. Russia of the Medvedev-Putin Era will view China as its important trading partner. Practices have proved that the relationship between China and Russia on economics and trade is completely correct. Confronted with a new China-Russia regional economic development opportunity, it needs to exert China and Russia’s geo-political advantage, and complementary economic advantage; and to seek a new model for regional economic cooperation on the Sino-Russian border area; and to establish an overall plan to exploit the Russian market; to support strong medium-sized enterprises to participate in economic cooperation between the two countries. Forming large-scale enterprises as the dominant force, supplemented by general trades, the cross-border and regional trades, and regulate irregular trade practices of the trade patterns. China towards the Russia trade and economic strategy, not only focuses on the whole range of Russian markets, but also runs an effective operation of the Russian Far East markets. An analysis on the Russian market diversification strategy is China’s main principle to develop the Russian market; exploiting the Russian market is also an important part of it. Sino-Russian trade and economic cooperation has entered a turning period in 2009. After the practice of trade liberalization, Russia’s market characteristics have undergone substantial changes. The previous special policy environment has ceased to exist, and therefore it is necessary to accurately grasp the particularity of the Russian market.Section 3 (Chapter VIII), the brief introduction is as follows: Chapter VIII presents the prospects for the development of Sino-Russian economic and trade relations. The third section includes the following: look into prospects for the development of Sino-Russian economic and trade relations. Russia is China’s largest neighbor; they established development relations since the 20th century. Therefore, in China’s study of international affairs, prospects for Russia’s development has a special significance.1. Russia possesses a huge market with a population of 139 million; under the conditions of the demand level of China’s domestic consumer market is less than the production supply. In order to acquire scale effect, domestic manufacturing enterprises make use of capital advantage within directly or indirectly investment cooperation, joint ventures models to access to the Russian domestic market, this is also an effective way to develop related fields and avoid trade barriers, and has broad business prospects.2. Russia is a resourceful country, having an important area for the bilateral cooperation between China and Russia. China is developing new energy development strategies and as a world energy power, Russia has ability to become a strategic partner for China to implement the diversification of energy markets.3.Scientific and technological cooperation has become an important strategic significance and potential for development in Sino-Russian bilateral relations. China and Russia will adopt technology sharing and technology introduction model on the basis of fundamental scientific research, etc. China absorbs Russian scientific and technical personnel involved in research and development with Chinese colleagues. The purpose of this is to improve the level of economic cooperation between China and Russia, and long-term interests.Sino-Russian relations are at their best in 2009. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin pointed out the Sino-Russian relations on October 10, 2009.China’s "Year of Russia" activities in 2006 and Russia’s "Year of China" activities in 2007,‘Year of Languages’activities in 2009 and 2010 between China and Russia would forward the development of stable bilateral relations. They have a promising prospect in investment, civilian technology and military technology cooperation. The signed mutual notification on missiles and the establishment of space launch vehicle mechanisms is a major breakthrough in bilateral relations and deepened the Sino-Russian mutual trust in the political sphere. The two countries have complementary strategic resources, and will complement each other in the future, maintain mutual support, and attract economic interaction between Russia and China. Russia trade and economic cooperation in the new model has long-term stability. Sino-Russian good relations of neighborhood, mutual strategic and cooperative partnership has been established for many areas, and got efficient cooperation mechanisms in multi-field between the two countries. They will work together to change the world economy, trade, and financial systems to cope with global economic crisis, as well as will provide the mechanism to guarantee investment cooperation between the two countries in the future, and lay a good foundation for development.Section 4 (Chapter IX), the brief introduction is as follows: Chapter IX gives some suggestions and strategies. Section 4 contains the following: Put forward specific recommendations and strategies to deal with the existing problems for the Sino-Russian economic and trade relations. China and Russia both are market economy countries in transition, China and Russia will pay a high price for their extensive economic growth mode, the industry structure is individual and industry chain is reduced. During the process of industrialization, China and Russia must deal with the relationship between economic development and population, resources, environment and take the road of sustainable development. The strategic choice of developing countries on trade depends on their initial conditions of industrialization and their development path. Most developing countries’initial conditions for economic take-off is based on their low level of the industrial structure chain. At that period, because of the widespread use of import substitution strategy development model, the development of light industry will go through a gradual transformation to the development of heavy industry period in the future. It will transform to pillar high-tech industries with high value-added. Different countries have their own specific economic take-off period because of different national conditions, but the domestic implementation of the industrial development path is to follow universal laws and the general trajectory of basic economic principles. Russia’s domestic industrialization has been basically completed, although the absolute military dominance of heavy and chemical industry accounted for the formation of civilian consumption industrial development has seriously lagged behind. Its economic structure is imbalanced, but in the global economy it still has the potential late-development advantage of big nation. Thus, Russia is also facing industrial restructuring in 2010. To adjust and improve the domestic economic structure; to accelerate the achievement of economic development diversification; it is an important guarantee for its improvement of economic growth quality, development of foreign economic and trade relations and achievement of export structure diversification. The task of China’s industrialization has not been completed; the market economic systems wait to be improved, and although there are differences in China and Russia, there are also similar sides: both of them are developing big countries, and have corresponding late-development advantages and disadvantages.The global economic recession of 2009 will aggravate the reduction of world oil demand, oil prices keep declining, oil prices fell 1 U.S. dollars so Russia will suffer the loss of one billion U.S. dollars. Oil prices are related to Russia’s economic lifeline, Russia’s economic development constraints are the Russian economy’s external dependence. How to reduce the economy’s external dependence is the key to its further development. An important prerequisite for Russia is the stability of energy prices on the international market; it is to determine Russia’s stable economic development. Repositioning of the future trade with Russia, Heilongjiang Province led the development of modern logistics industry to rely on the ability of domestic manufacturing, construct a combination of large trade channel in railway, road, and sea transportation; radiate the goods and services to the Russian mainland and in Northeast Asia. According to the implementation of the economic development strategy of Russia in 2020, China’s direct investment in Russia will focus on the field of energy resources development; production and manufacturing; construction of distribution channels and marketing network; research and develop the high value-added and high-tech. During the process, Chinese enterprises and the Russian energy resource development will present the basic operation rules of international market economic system, namely, investment and trade will be integrated.Section 5 contains some conclusions. Vladimir Putin will return to the presidency in 2013, which will make political and economic relations between China and Russia enter a substantive stage of development. China and Russia are strongly advocating the establishment of a multi-polar pattern. In the foreign trade and economic policies, the mutual benefits of the two countries in the Asia- Pacific region will make the cooperation become a long-term common task. In this paper, the full studies were based on the realities of Russia, made a prospective study and predicted the future for Russia. The main purpose was to clarify the law of Russian development, providing a dynamic observation of the development of perspective. In the structure, the papers studied and analyzed the prospects and the problems on the development of Sino-Russian trade and economic relations and drew on the overall conclusions of Russian development prospects based on systematical study.更多还原