【作者】 宋健；

【导师】 陈士俊；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 城市信息化作为国家信息化的重要组成部分,由于其建设投资大、周期长,而且在整个城市信息化过程中存在巨大的风险,因此有必要将风险管理引入到城市信息化建设之中,并结合城市信息化系统的特点,对城市信息化风险进行有效管理。目前国内外城市信息化风险管理的研究还很少,而且研究内容零散而不系统、研究方法偏重于定性、研究结果偏重于理论而缺乏可操作性等不足。本文从城市信息化风险理论的分析入手,综合运用系统分析、层次分析模糊评价方法及实证分析等研究方法,运用定性与定量方法对城市信息化风险进行系统研究,重点研究了城市信息化主要风险的识别、评价和控制与防范,以期为我国城市信息化风险管理提供科学的理论依据和可操作性的方法。首先,本文对国内外城市信息化风险管理的研究现状进行系统地梳理和述评,由此指出城市信息化风险管理的重要性和必要性;其次,运用系统理论对城市信息化风险进行理论分析,阐明城市信息化风险的特征、分类、量化以及管理内容与过程;第三,采用基于目标导向的方法对城市信息化风险进行识别,确定城市信息化建设过程中的主要风险因素,即城市信息化战略风险、城市信息技术应用风险、城市管理风险、人员风险和社会环境风险;第四,在风险识别的基础上构建城市信息化风险评价指标体系,采用层次分析模糊评价方法对城市信息化主要风险因素进行分析与评价,结合案例得出了具有操作性的结论;最后,建立基于风险要素的城市信息化风险控制与防范体系,提出了城市信息化风险管理的控制策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important component of our National Informatization, Urban Informatization demands large investment and a long period. Besides, huge risks involved in the entire process of urban informatization also makes it necessary to introduce Risk Management Theory, combining with urban informatization system characteristic, to urban informatization for an effective management of the risks.However, there is little research on this at present. What’s more, the research is isolated and non-systematic. They mainly focus on qualitative method and thus the results are more theoretical than maneuverable. Starting from the analysis of urban informatization risk theory, the thesis mainly studies the identification, evaluation, control and prevention of major risks in urban informatization in order to find a scientifically theoretical basis and a maneuverable method for the urban informatization risk management in China. Comprehensive system analysis, AHP-Fuzzy evaluation, real diagnosis analysis, qualitative and quantitative methods are used in the thesis.In the thesis a systematic survey of urban informatization and risk management is firstly made on the urban informatization risk management home and abroad which reveals the necessity and importance of risk management. Secondly, by using system theory, a theoretical analysis is made on the risks in order to illustrate its characteristics, classification, quantification and management content and process. Thirdly, based on target-guidance five risks are identified in order to define the major risk factors in the process of urban informatization. The five risks are strategic risk, technological application risk, urban management risk, personnel risk and social environment risk. Fourthly, an index system of urban informatization risk is established on the basis of risk identification. Analysis and evaluation of the risks are carried out by using AHP-Fuzzy method and a maneuverable conclusion is made through case study. Last, risk management and prevention system are established on the basis of risk factors and a controlling strategy of risk management is put forward.更多还原