【作者】 杨建军；

【作者基本信息】 新疆大学 ， 自然地理学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 新疆地处欧亚大陆内部,在特殊的地貌、大气环流和太阳辐射等因子的影响和作用下,形成了典型的温带大陆性干旱气候。随着人口的急剧增长与工农业的迅速发展,各行业需水量急剧增长,水资源供需矛盾突出。蒸散量的精确估算,对于新疆水资源合理开发利用、农田灌溉管理以及自然植被生态恢复等工作有着重要的现实意义。因此,本研究的主要目标就是利用长期的气象资料和高分辨率影像,以ArcGIS为工具,在准确统计的基础上,建立基于NDVI的潜在蒸散计算模型,以进一步了解新疆潜在蒸散的时间、空间变化规律。1.本文利用精度较高Penmman─Monteith公式计算新疆54个气象站点的潜在蒸散,通过统计方法将全疆蒸散分为三个类型和四个时间段,并分析了年时间尺度上潜在蒸散与气候因子的关系。2.以Penmman-Monteith公式计算结果为标准,分析比较了修正彭曼公式、Priestley─Taylor法、Hargreaves─Samani以及1948─Penman计算干旱区潜在蒸散的差异性。3.以10分钟精度的气象台站资料为基础,应用Penman─Monteith公式和Lascano─VanBavel ET algorithm计算了小时尺度的潜在蒸散量,并分析与其气候因子的关系。4.利用1km的SPOT─NDVI数据,建立了基于累计NDVI的年潜在蒸散量估算模型,并分析了其误差,结果表明,该模型在北疆具有一定的适用性,而在南疆则具有较大的误差。5.利用配分函数分析年潜在蒸散量时间序列分形结构,结果表明:新疆潜在蒸散时间序列为单分形过程。R/S分析表明南疆、北疆、天山山区1955至2008年年平均潜在蒸散量时间序列Hurst指数分别为:0.8960、0.7194、0.7889,这表明三个区域潜在蒸散存在明显的Hurst现象,即潜在蒸散变化存在着持续性。其中,南疆潜在蒸散的持续性最强,天山山区次之,北疆地区最弱。更多还原

【Abstract】 Because of the inner situation of Eurasia, the special topography, atmospheric and solar radiation result the typical temperate continental climate.Wtih the rapidly increasing of population,agriculture and industrym, the water demand rised as well,which worsen the imbalance between supply and demand.The precisely estimation of evapotranspiration plays a practical role in the exploitaion of water resource, the formulation of irrigation programme and the restoration of the natural vegetation. Therefore, this paper aims to estabalish a ET model, which based on the high resolution images and long–term weather data.The model is computed with ArcGIS software.The process will help the fully understand of temporal and spatial variation.a. The Penman-Monteith model is used to calculat the potential evapotranspiration of the 54 stations in Xinjiang. The annual evapotranspiration can be divided into three intensity classes and four time slice, which the intense, middle and weak evapotranspiration. Also, the relationship between the annual potential evapotranspiration and climatic factor was analyzed.b. Satandized by the results of Penman-Monteith model,the results of the revised Penman model,Priestley-Taylor model, Hargreaves-Samani model and 1948 Penman model were analyzed and the error analysis was made.c. Based on ten minutes time frequency weather data, the Penman-Monteith model and Lascano-VanBavel ET algorithm were used on the computation of hourly evapotranspiration. d. With the SPOT-NDVI data, the annual ET-NDVI model is established, the independent variable is accumulated NDVI. The error analysis shows that, the model is good for the computation in North of Xinjiang and in Tianshan mountains, while it makes bigger mistaks in South of Xinjiang.e. The partition function is used to decide the fractural structure of annula evapotranspiration temporal series, the results showed that the annual evapotranspiration temporal series is a single fractural structure, which means that it can be analyzed with R/S on the trendency. The R/S analysis tells that the Hurst exponet of Sorth of Xinjiang, North of Xinjiang and Tianshan mountains from 1955 to 2008 are 0.8960, 0.7194, 0.7889, specificly. That means the three regions that show a markable Hurst, that is to say, the evapotranspiration change persistently. And the South of Xinjiang persistently strongly and Tianshan moutains persistently commonly, and the North of Xinjiang is the last one.更多还原