【作者】 王然；

【导师】 杨赞；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 随着全球经济一体化和贸易全球化的深入推进,航运业在国际贸易中发挥着越来越重要的作用,国际航运市场的竞争也日趋激烈,科学的经营管理决策对于航运企业的发展和核心竞争力的提高具有至关重要的作用。运价的制定、运力的控制与发展、航线的优化配置、成本控制、风险管理等问题,都是航运企业不得不面临的决策难题。航运企业,特别集装箱班轮企业,决策环境异常复杂,影响因素众多,存在很大的不可预见性和不确定性,决策内容又涉及广泛的领域以及诸多相互影响和制约的环节,要求决策者必须善于准确分析、把握多种变量因素的特性和发展趋势,做出合理的判断,提出科学的决策方案。论文运用先进的决策思想和理论,通过深入系统的研究,针对集装箱班轮公司经营管理的各个重要环节,提出了切实可行的决策方法,将为企业的科学决策起到积极的促进作用。论文首先对集装箱运输市场进行了分析,首次运用经济控制论模型对集装箱运输市场进行仿真预测,并通过对集装箱运输价格的调整,实现模型的反馈控制,从而达到符合预期的理想经营效果。参照以上市场预测结果,结合对航线配置主要因素的分析,论文在充分考虑运力和运量两大不确定因素的基础上,运用随机规划理论,有效解决了不同类型船舶在多港口、多航线上的配置问题,为航运企业航线优化配置提供有效的定量计算工具。根据以上市场预测结果以及企业航线配置和运力部署情况,论文针对集装箱调度中最核心的空箱调运环节,主要考虑了空箱运输成本、租箱费、堆场费三大影响因素,以成本最小化为目标,建立了空箱调运的计算模型,其特点是简单,实用,可操作性强,易于企业使用。船舶投资是集装箱班轮公司最重要、最核心也是投入最大的资产投资行为。班轮公司的市场预测、航线配置和实际经营情况,是船舶投资决策论证的重要基础。论文运用实物期权理论,开展了船舶投资决策的研究。运用实物期权方法进行投资决策与传统方法相比具有一定的优越性,更加符合企业实际,可以为航运企业船舶投资决策提供进一步的依据和参考。成本控制始终是集装箱班轮公司追求经营效益最大化的重要举措,而波动剧烈的燃油价格风险管理和成本控制是其中最难实施的一项内容。论文通过对燃油价格形成规律的分析,提出了燃油价格风险管理的对策建议,并运用相关决策模型,给出了燃油成本控制的主要措施和方法,以降低企业运营成本,提高市场综合竞争力。最后,论文通过对航运企业经营、管理、决策所有方面、各个环节营运风险的全面分析,运用专家知识和BP神经网络,建立了航运企业风险评价模型,并提出了应对风险的防范措施,以保证企业决策方案的有效实施,实现健康持续发展。航运业是一个特殊的行业。除面临的外部环境总是迅速变化外,集装箱班轮公司的内部管理环节众多,牵涉面广,流程复杂,管理者在进行决策时需要考虑很多复杂的制约因素。航运企业需求预测、经营调控、资源配置、船舶投资、生产运营、成本控制、风险管理等各个方面联系紧密,既协同互补又相互制约,某一环节的决策失误都可能产生连锁反应,造成企业的巨大损失。基于这个实际情况,论文按照“系统全面、重点突出、方法先进、科学有效”的研究思路,对集装箱班轮公司的经营管理决策方法提出了切合实际的一体化解决方案。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the thorough advancement of global economic integration and the trade globalization,the shipping industry is playing a more and more vital role in the international trade,the international shipping market’s competition is also getting intense,the scientific management decision-making has the very important function regarding the shipping enterprise’s development and core competitiveness enhancement. The freight formulation,transportation capacity control and development,routes optimized disposition,cost control,risk management,are the decision-making difficult problems which the shipping enterprise must face.In shipping enterprise,especially container liner enterprise,the decision-making environment is extremely complex,the influencing factors is numerous,existing large unpredictability and uncertainty,the decision-making content involves the widespread domain as well as many mutual influences and the restriction link,requests the decision-maker being good at analyzing, the assurance many kinds of variable factor characteristic and the trend of development accurately,makes the reasonable judgment,proposes the science decision scheme.The paper utilization advanced decision-making thought and the theory,through the thorough system’s research,in view of container scheduled ship company management and operation’s each important link,proposed the practical and feasible decision method, will play the positive promoter action for enterprise’s macro-scientific decision-making.The paper carriys on a analysis to the container transportation market,first time to utilize the economic cybernetics model to make a simulation for the the container transportation,through the freight adjustment,realizes the model reaction control, thus achieves a ideal dynamic forecast effect.Through the analysis of factors that affect the route optimizes disposition,fully consider the two big uncertain elements of transportation capacity and amount,using stochastic programming theory effectively solute the question of different type ships’ optimized disposition in multi-harbor and multi-routes,provide a valuable quantitative evaluation tool to the shipping enterprise routes optimized disposition.In view of the empty containers’ transportaion,mainly consideres the transportation cost,the rent expense,the dump expense three influenc factors,take the minimum cost as the goal,establishes a empay containers transportation model, its characteristic was simple,practical,feasibility,easy to use in the actual operation of enterprise.Utilizing real options theory carries on the investment decision to the international shipping ships.The utilization of real options method carries on the investment decision and the conventional routes compares has the very big superiority, may provide the basis and the reference for the shipping enterprise ships investment decision.Then,through the fuel oil market’s forecast and the analysis,simultaneously carries on the analysis to the fuel oil price risk management,and gives the key measure and method to control fuel oil cost,reduces the operation cost,enhances the shipping enterprise’s market comprehensive competitive power.Lastly,through the analysis of business management risk in shipping enterprise transportation,establishes the BP neural network model to carry on the risk assessment,proposes the measure to deals with the shipping risk,and has carried on the related legal analysis.As a special industry,shipping industry’s development is effected by many factors,shipping enterprise’s external environment always changes rapidly,it’s internal environment is also getting more and more complex.,so the decision-making needs to consider more complex restriction factors.Shipping enterprise’s internal management,vessel investment,business operation,marketing and service are much closer.Once some link make a fault judgement,it wil hanve a chain-reaction,causes enterprise’s large losses.Therefore,the shipping enterprise decision-making work is not some link’s matter,but is a system event.For the shipping enterprise,its management development success or not,the scientifical management decision-making will play a very important role,and the decision-making of the head of undertaking is the key.更多还原