【作者】 张文军；

【导师】 陈乐一；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 中国是一个大国,区域间经济社会发展的不平衡性一直是一个越来越受到决策部门重视的棘手问题。通常,学者们只是从发展差异的角度,而很少从波动形态以及产生波动的原因这个视角研究它。可以肯定的是,从这个新的视角研究我国区域间发展的不平衡问题,对于提高宏观经济政策的针对性、有效性和科学性具有重大意义。本文首先刻画改革前后我国东西部地区经济波动的总体特征和差异,然后重点研究波动差异产生的原因,并在最后提出了相应的政策建议。第一章对已有的文献进行了综述。通过对区域经济周期文献的总结,得知现有文献主要是从区域经济周期之间的同步性和区域经济对国家经济周期的反应等几个方面来研究区域经济周期的。第二章通过对改革开放以来东西部地区的经济波动特征的分析,得出了一个较为明显的规律:1995年之前的东部地区和西部地区之间的经济波动差异大于1995年之后的时期,并且两个地区的波幅也表现为从东部地区远大于西部地区转变为西部地区大于东部地区。进一步从区域经济周期角度进行综合分析后,我们认为市场化改革、宏观经济政策、产业结构、人力资本、区际贸易和国际贸易是导致上述现象的具体因素。因此,我们将围绕这几个因素展开分析。第三章就市场化改革与东西部地区经济波动的关系进行了分析。市场化改革不仅影响到东西部地区经济波动并因此拉大了东西部地区的经济发展差距,还直接导致了宏观经济政策的区域效应,以及东西部地区在产业结构、人力资本等方面的差异。第四章分析了宏观经济政策的区域效应与东西部地区经济波动的关系。由于地区之间不同的市场化程度导致了不同地区宏观经济中介变量对宏观经济政策的敏感度的差异,即宏观经济政策的区域效应,所以,我们对宏观经济政策的区域效应与东西部地区经济波动差异的关系进行了理论和实证分析,证实了我们在第二章中所提出的观点。第五章分析了产业结构与东西部地区经济波动的关系。我们认为:第二产业相对第一、三产业而言,波动一般要剧烈些,从而工业波动的差异是造成东西部经济波动差异的重要原因之一。而改革以来西部工业发展的阶段一直都滞后于东部,因此东西部经济波动出现了明显的差异性表现。第六章分析了人力资本与东西部地区经济波动的关系。理论分析得知人力资本存量水平的提高有利于减缓经济波动、提高经济增长水平;实证检验得知:人力资本的边际产量与对外开放度成正比。而1996年以来的数据证明,东部地区的人力资本存量和开放度都远大于东部地区,因而在此期间,东部地区经济的波动幅度比西部地区要小,经济增长速度也比西部地区要高。第七章分析了区际贸易和国际贸易与东西部地区经济波动的关系。首先从区际贸易来看,自1996年以来西部地区的逆差不断扩大,使得西部地区经济转入萧条时不能依靠区际贸易来拉动经济增长,表现为谷位低、波动大。而东部地区持续增加的贸易顺差使它的经济抗衰退能力大幅度增强,表现为谷位比西部地区高。其次通过对出口的实证分析,东西部地区出口波动的差异确实是引起东西部地区经济波动差异的因素之一。本章最后分析了导致东西部地区出口波动差异的政策原因。最后一章对以上的各个因素进行了总结,市场化改革引发了东西部地区的各种差异,而这些差异决定了区域经济对宏观经济政策的反应程度,最终导致了区域经济波动的差异随着宏观经济政策的实施方式的变化而变化。最后从推进市场化改革、加强和改善宏观调控等方面提出了缩小东西部地区经济波动差异的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In China, which a developing big country confronted by a tough problem that disequilibrium of economic and social development amongst their regions, policy-making division became more and more to pay attention to level the disparity. But people generally concern about the research on the regional issue from the aspect of the disparity of social economic development, seldom from the aspect of macroeconomic fluctuation and its reasons. Certainly, it has significant meaning to formulating accurate, timely and proper and scientific macroeconomic-policy by exploring and grasping the economy fluctuation and its reasons based on the regional level.Firstly, this paper has studied the general tendencies of the two regions and differentials of the economic fluctuation between them before and after the time of Reform. Secondly, it mainly studies the reasons resulting in the differentials of the economic fluctuation between them. And also this paper has put forward some corresponding policy suggestions.In the first chapter, through the summarizing of the references about the regional economic cycle, we can conclude that focusing on the synchronization among regional economic cycle and on the rules of reaction of the regional economic to national economic cycle have constituted two mainly research fields in present references of studying the regional economic cycle.The second chapter has arrived at a more obvious conclusion through analyzing the characteristic of the economic fluctuation of the two regions there was a larger extent of differentials between the Eastern and Western regional economic fluctuation before 1995 than it was after that time, and the phenomenon of the amplitude has moved from that the Eastern region was far larger than that of the Western to opposite direction. Furthermore, through the analysis by synthesis of the regional economic fluctuation we argued that there are six concrete factors which can give rise to those phenomenon mentioned above, such as market-oriented reform, macroeconomic policy, industrial structure, human capital, inter-region trade and international trade. Therefore, we would analyze centrally these factors in the following.The third chapter has analyzed the relationship between the market-oriented reform and the economical fluctuation in the Eastern and Western regions. The market-oriented reform not only results in the differentials of the economic fluctuation between them and therefore widens their economic development gap, but also gives rise to the regional effect of the macroeconomic policy, and the differentials of the industrial structure and human capital respectively.The forth chapter has analyzed the relationship between the regional effect of the macroeconomic policy and the economical fluctuation in the Eastern and Western regions. Because different extents of marketization can lead to the discrepancy about the degree of sensitivity of the macroeconomic intervening variables to the macro economical policy in different regions, namely the regional effect of the macro economical policy. we make both theory and empirical analysis on the relationship between the regional effect of the macroeconomic policy and the differentials of the economic fluctuation between the Eastern and Western regions and then the result has proved our viewpoint put forward in the second chapter.The fifth chapter has analyzed the relationship between the industrial structure and the economical fluctuation in the Eastern and Western regions. We argue that the fluctuation of the secondary industry fluctuates generally more severely than does the first and the third industry through the analysis, so the differentials of the economical fluctuation in the Eastern and Western regions can be led by the discrepancy of the industry fluctuation. Since the industrial development phase in the Western region has always been lagging behind that in the Eastern, there must exist the discrepancies of the economic fluctuation between the two regions.The sixth chapter has analyzed the relationship between the human capital and the economical fluctuation in the Eastern and Western regions. We believe that the increasing of the stock of the human capital can help to smooth the amplitude of the economic fluctuation and speed the economic growth through the theoretical analysis and with empirical analysis, we consider that the marginal product of the human capital is proportional to the degree of economic opening. The data since 1996 proved that the stock of the human capital and the degree of opening in the Eastern regions is far higher than that of the Western region, so the amplitude of the economical fluctuation in the Eastern region is smaller than that of the Western region, and also the speed of the economical growth is higher than that of the Western region during the same period.The seventh chapter has analyzed the relationship between the interregional and the international trade and the discrepancy of economical fluctuation in the Eastern and Western regions. As far as the interregional trade is concerned, since there has existed a gradually enlarging trade deficit in the Western region after 1996 which could lead to that the economy can’t be pulled by it when the Western economy was stagnancy, the economy scene manifests as low trough and big amplitude. On the contrary, the economy has stronger power of resistance during the depression because of the increasingly favorable balance of the inter-regional trade in the Eastern regions. The economy scene manifests as trough was higher than that of the Western region. The second, through empirical study on export, we consider that the discrepancy of the export fluctuation between the Eastern and Western regions become actually the causes of the discrepancy of the economic fluctuation between the two regions. Finally, this chapter has analyzed the aspect of policy that can give rise to those differentials of the export fluctuation between them.The last chapter has summarized the intrinsic mechanism amongst above factors, such as market-oriented reform can lead to the different discrepancies in the Eastern and Western regions, and these discrepancies directly lead to regional effect to the macro economical policy. It finally can give rise to the discrepancy of the regional economical fluctuation derived from the implement style of the macro economical policy. Based on advancing the market-oriented reform, strengthening and improving the macro adjust and control and so on, we have brought forward the suggestions that could narrow the economical fluctuation gap between the Eastern and Western regions.更多还原