【作者】 卢凌霄；

【导师】 周应恒；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 蔬菜作为中国居民日常消费的重要副食品之一,是各地改革开放后产业结构调整的主要方向,当各个蔬菜产地围绕着周年供应,通过产品多样化的策略使消费者的周年消费得以满足时,整个蔬菜产业也开始向过剩时期转化。众多蔬菜产地的相互竞争日益激烈,很容易造成价格低落,甚至使整个蔬菜产业陷入利润率为负值的状态。为了避免过度竞争,产地间的协调就显得相当必要。在这种历史背景下,有必要对中国蔬菜产地竞争及其集中进行规范的实证研究,分析中国蔬菜产地布局由分散向主产地集中的过程,以及在此过程中,影响蔬菜产地间竞争及蔬菜主产地形成的主要因素有哪些,各自的作用机理是什么。如果能够验证蔬菜产地间竞争导致蔬菜产地集中,蔬菜产地集中可以促进生产效率,那么政府层面应该如何操作来规范蔬菜产地竞争并引导蔬菜主产地形成呢?本研究拟围绕上述问题进行系统分析,其研究结果将对中国蔬菜布局政策提供理论与经验依据。目前,改革开放进入第三十年,全国范围来看,农民增收、农业结构调整进入困境,比较利益驱使蔬菜成为各地产业结构调整的主要方向,总量的过剩使得蔬菜生产开始由价格竞争进入品质竞争的时代,蔬菜产地的竞争及其变化将直接影响各地蔬菜生产、产业发展的可持续性。目前中国的蔬菜主要生产地区如山东、河南、江苏、河北等地蔬菜播种面积与蔬菜产量在全国占有重要比重,这些区域的蔬菜产地集中一方面推动了当地蔬菜产业的发展以及区域农业经济的增长,另一方面产地之间开始寻求新的竞争策略。因此,研究蔬菜产地集中的演变机理和发展趋势,可以为各蔬菜产地生产政策以及竞争策略的安排提供指导,为全国蔬菜产地间的协调提供参考,具有积极的现实意义。1985年蔬菜流通体制由政府宏观调控的计划经济向放开为主的市场自由流通变动后,蔬菜市场放开,流通突破区域限制,从“就地生产,就地销售”的封闭格局转变为“一地生产,全国销售”的开放式格局。宏观上大市场、大流通的客观条件导致大生产的出现。经济体制变动、中国社会经济发展以及人民消费水平的提高共同作用,推动蔬菜生产发生很大变化,主要表现为三个方面:一是蔬菜总播种面积和总产量的迅速增加;二是蔬菜生产出现产地集中,主产地开始形成;三是蔬菜生产竞争从总的数量竞争到品种多样、质量提升、周年供应变动。蔬菜具有生产季节性和消费鲜食性的特征,在自然资源禀赋一定的情况下,生产技术、交通设施、市场条件等因素在蔬菜主产地形成和发展过程中作用重大。本文对全国和山东省内蔬菜产地集中和主产地形成的现状和趋势进行描述统计,重点分析了引起蔬菜产地集中的原因,为政府制定蔬菜生产布局相关政策提供理论和实证分析的依据。具体研究内容如下:研究内容一:蔬菜产地集中相关理论的总结概述。对产地间竞争、主产地形成、产业集聚、新经济地理学等理论进行溯源廓清。农业生产区域布局主要取决于地区资源禀赋,资源相似地区存在着基于产品数量与质量的产地间竞争,产地竞争导致主产地形成,主产地形成带来的准内部经济又推动农业产业集聚进一步发展。本研究在梳理主产地形成相关理论的同时,更重要的是分析该理论在中国蔬菜产地集中的适用性,为这套理论体系以后在其他农产品区域布局与变迁的应用提供借鉴。研究内容二:中国各省和山东省内各市蔬菜产地集中的程度。首先通过对美国、日本蔬菜产地集中和主产地形成的分析,表明蔬菜产地集中是经济发展水平提升,生产技术,交通条件和市场条件改善后的必然产物,中国国土辽阔,人口众多,作为新兴的经济迅速发展的市场经济国家,美日蔬菜生产布局的变动为制度变迁和技术改善后的中国蔬菜产地集中提供了一定的想象空间。其次,本文用区域经济学、产业经济学衡量区域集中情况的相关指标,描述出我国蔬菜生产在总农作物生产中比例的变动,全国分省市蔬菜产地集中情况,以及流通体制改革后蔬菜生产迅速增加,目前成为全国蔬菜生产集中程度最高省份的山东省的蔬菜生产集中及主产地形成的情况,还利用有限的数据分品种考察了不同蔬菜在地域空间上的变动。这些宏观层面数据统计表明我国随着社会经济发展、市场和技术条件的改善,蔬菜产地集中在全国层面和省的层面都不同程度的出现。研究内容三:影响中国全国和山东省蔬菜产地集中的原因分析。本文结合农业经济、区域经济、主产地形成和产业集聚的相关理论和中国蔬菜生产的实际情况,将导致近20年来蔬菜生产布局变动的原因归纳为制度因素,技术变动和市场条件改善,制度因素主要体现在蔬菜流通体制从计划经济向市场自由流通的变迁以及政府在推动地区蔬菜产业发展上作的努力,因为全国各地基本都是从1985年后逐步放开蔬菜流通体制,而制度又难以定量,因此本文在全国层面用研究期间的调整回避掉这个问题,在山东层面用国际蔬菜博览会的召开与否来衡量,技术和市场条件具体又细分为农用塑料薄膜使用量、公路里程、社会消费品零售总额、集贸市场成交额、非农就业机会、上年蔬菜播种面积等可以衡量的因素,通过全国分省数据和山东省分市面板数据的模型回归,在全国和山东层面证实了这些因素对于蔬菜播种面积的相关联系。研究内容四:山东省主要蔬菜生产地蔬菜集中程度和集中原因的调查分析。蔬菜是一个大的分类,不同品种在单产、产值、品质等方面都存在较大差异,基于数据所限,前文对于全国和山东的分析忽视了蔬菜的这种特性,为弥补这一缺陷,本文通过对山东蔬菜主产市重点乡镇的实地调查,来验证蔬菜产地集中的趋势,更详细的描述出蔬菜集中以及不同品种的集中,调查结果也表明,市场条件、政府支持和交通条件是地方官员最为认同的导致蔬菜产地集中的原因。研究内容五:案例分析——以山东省寿光市蔬菜产地集中为例。结合以上的理论分析和实证剖析,本研究通过对山东寿光“买全国、卖全国”的案例分析,应用波特的钻石模型,还原了寿光市蔬菜产地集中和主产地形成发展的历史,进一步验证了前文的结论,指出生产和交通技术、市场条件改善和政府政策在蔬菜产地集中的重要作用。通过全文的分析可以看出,各区域自然资源情况、经济发展水平、交通设施、市场流通条件等差异很大,将来蔬菜产地集中的趋势会有所不同。从保障蔬菜供应总量的稳定,优化资源配置,保护农业生产资源出发,在具体管理各区域生产布局时,应该采取不同的方针,在制定政策时应有所侧重。尤其是蔬菜生产已经从总量稳定逐渐向品种和地区以及供应期间的不均衡转变时,地方政府制定政策中,应该更多的考虑加强蔬菜生产技术的开发和利用提供相应技术指导、加强交通条件和市场体制建设以及树立品牌上提升本地竞争优势。更多还原

【Abstract】 As one of the most important daily consumption subsidiary foodstuff of Chinese, Vegetable is the main direction during the agricultural production change process everywhere.As many vegetable production area aims to supplying stable and diversified during the whole year,entire vegetable supply went to excessive periods.The competition become acute and the market price went down spontaneous,even made the vegetable estate went to the state of negative profit.In order to avoid over-competition,the coordination among production place seems pretty necessary.So,it is necessary to analysis the current situation,trend and mechanism of production concentration.If we can verify the production concentration lead to production cluster,and to promote production efficiency,then the government should do what to pilot the competition? At present,the peasant income increases and agricultural restructuring enters difficult position,vegetable production area change from price to quality,these change will surely affect the production and the continuance of the vegetable estate.At present,some main production province such as Shandong,Henan,Jiangsu,Hebei occupies important specific gravity in the whole nation. On one hand,these vegetable clusters do promote the development of agricultural economy; on the other hand,these areas begin to explore new competition tactics.Analysize the current situation,the tendency and formative factors of vegetable production cluster can help government establish production policy and competition tactics.Vegetable market system has been changed from planned economy to market oriented economy in 1985,since then,vegetable circulate area has been quickly extended.The change of marketing system,the development of society and economy and the improve of consumption level together promote the formation of vegetable production cluster.This can be seen from three aspects:first,the total production area and quantity of products increased;second,many vegetable production clusters have formed;third,the competition of vegetable production areas has changed from quantity to variety,quality and anniversary supply.The characteristics of vegetable are produce seasonal and consume fresh,since the natural condition is specified in the certain place,so the production technology,the means of transportation and the marketing condition play a very important role in the cluster formation process.This thesis describe the current situation and tendency of vegetable cluster in china and Shandong province,analysis the formation factors and do some field research to verify it,so as to provide some theoretical evidence for vegetable production layout policy.There are 4 main parts in this thesis,shown as the followings:Part 1:summarize the theory of vegetable production concentration.There are many theories connected with vegetable production concentration,such as production area competition,main production area formation,the new economic geography and industry cluster.The agricultural production area mainly depend on the natural resource, the areas which own same natural resource will compete on the quantity and quality of products,the competition between production area will lead to major production area,and it will lead to interior economy and the formation of production cluster.This thesis summarized the theory of main production area and analysis the applicability in china vegetable industry.Part 2:the degree of vegetable production concentration in china and Shandong.By analysis the vegetable production cluster formation in the USA and the main production area formation in Japan,it concluded that production technology,traffic condition and market condition play a very important role in the process of main production area formation.China encompasses extensive territory and a large population,as one of the fastest developing country in the world,the experience of vegetable production change from the USA and Japan can provide a broad imagine space.Then,it use the major indexes which used to weigh the regional concentration in the regional economy and industrial economy to analysis the degree of vegetable concentration in china and Shandong province. These data verify that vegetable certainly is concentrated since the development of economy,technology and marketing condition.Part 3:the reasons of vegetable concentration in china and Shandong.By summarize the agricultural economy,the regional economy,main production area formation,industrial cluster theory and the fact of vegetable production in China,it conclude the vegetable concentration factors as the change of institution,technology and marketing condition.The institution change is that vegetable can circulate freely around the whole country after 1985,since every province take the same policy after 1985,it did not consider this factor in the model and consider the technology and market effect on production concentration mainly,and it specified to these indexes,that is the use of plastic film,the amount of retail market and total amount of society retail consumables,the road mileage,per GDP,nonrural employment opportunity,irrigated area,the vegetable plowed last year.Through panel-data model regression,we verified positive relation of vegetable concentration and these factors.Part 4:the field investigation of vegetable concentration degree and causes in Shandong.Vegetable contain many varieties,given plowed area,different kinds have different output and value,because of data restrict,it did not consider these factors in the model study,in order to fetch up,we take a field study in major vegetable production city in Shandong.The study show different variety do concentrated in Shandong and the major factors of concentration are government policy,technology and marketing condition.Part 5:Case study of vegetable industry in Shandong Province,Shouguang CityCombine with the theory and demonstration before,this part use the diamond model to do a case study on the vegetable industry development in Shandong Province,Shouguang City——one of the most famous vegetable cluster in china which is famed for "buying the whole nation,selling countrywide".it also verified that technology,marketing condition and government policy is the most important factors for vegetable concentration.it can be seen that condition of natural resources,economic development level,traffic facilities and marketing condition have many differences,the tendency of vegetable concentration will surely different,in order to ensure the stability of vegetable supplying quantity,optimize the allocation of resources,protect an agriculture producing resource, different place should adopt different guiding principle,especially when vegetable supply insufficiency have been changed from quantity to variety,quality and seasonally.The government should establish policies which can improve the marketing condition and brand superiority.更多还原