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不确定需求条件下供应链分销与配置问题研究
Research on the Problem of Distribution and Configuration in Supply Chain under Uncertain Demand
【作者】 桂贤;
【导师】 杜纲;
【作者基本信息】 天津大学 , 管理科学与工程, 2008, 博士
【摘要】 在经济全球一体化的今天,供应链管理已经成为现代企业的主要管理模式,企业的竟争已不再是单个企业之间的竞争,而是各企业所在供应链之间的竟争。最有竞争力的供应链不仅要提供最优的服务,使产品以最合理的成本进入市场,还要具备整合协调供应链成员间关系的管理能力。在供应链中,分销与配置系统是供应链管理中非常重要的两个环节,它们不仅是衡量供应链管理水平高低的标志,而且是决定供应链竞争能力的关键因素。然而,面对当今不确定性因素不断增多的供应链管理环境,传统分销与配置系统在效率、成本以及可控性方面的劣势日益突出。因此,对不确定需求条件下供应链分销与配置问题的研究不仅具有理论意义,而且对实践还具有一定的指导价值。本文运用系统科学和协同学的理论对不确定需求条件下供应链分销与配置系统进行系统和协同分析的基础上,分别对不确定需求条件下供应链一级分销网络和二级分销网络的优化进行了建模分析,同时对不确定需求条件下单个企业的供应商选择及库存优化和不确定条件下供应链供应商选择及库存优化进行了建模分析,主要研究工作如下:第一,运用系统科学相关理论方法对不确定需求条件下供应链分销与配置系统进行了系统分析,在分析了系统目标、系统结构、环境因素和系统的输入和输出之后,运用协同学相关理论方法分析了不确定需求条件下供应链分销与配置系统协同性,并分析系统序参量的特性和系统自组织与被组织的相互关系,在上述分析基础上给出了系统分析框图。第二,在系统分析供应链一级分销网络特征的基础上,对产品需求服从正态分布、供应提前期是随机数等不确定因素条件下的一个生产商、一个零售商和一个生产商、多个零售商的供应链一级分销网络进行了建模。并给出了相应的求解方法,得出了相应的优化决策结果。第三,运用双层规划的基本理论,结合分销中心的选址,建立了需求和分销中心转运容量不确定条件下的集中控制的供应链二级分销网络的双层规划优化模型,并用智能算法对模型进行了求解和实例模拟计算。第四,建立了基于区间AHP法单个企业供应商选择的优化模型和产品需求服从正态分布、产品由多个零部件组成的单个企业库存优化决策模型。给出了上述两个模型的求解方法,并对第一个模型进行了实例模拟计算。第五,对模糊需求条件下供应链供应商的选择及库存优化问题进行了系统分析,在此基础上运用模糊集理论和模糊机会约束规划的理论建立了需求和提前期等都是模糊数的供应链供应商选择及库存优化问题的模糊机会约束规划的优化模型。在分析模型求解方法之后,提出了基于遗传算法的模型求解方法和实例模拟计算。最后,总结了全文的工作,并指出了下一步研究方向。
【Abstract】 In today’s world, supply chain management (SCM) has been the important management mode for modern enterprises with the integration of world economy, individual firms no longer compete as independent entities, but rather as integral parts of supply chain linkage. A good supply chain with competition force not only could provide best service and make products into markets with most reasonable cost, but also have the capability to coordinate other members in supply chain. In supply chain, distribution and configuration system are two linkages of very important, which are not only the sign to measure the level of supply chain management and are the most key factors to determine the competition capability of supply chain. However, in today’s environment of supply chain management, which the uncertain factors are increasing, the inferior position of traditional distribution and configuration system is increasingly in evidence, especially on the conflicts of efficiency, cost and controllability. Thus, the study for the problem of distribution and configuration in the supply chain under uncertain demand will undoubtedly be important for theoretical study and practical applicationIn this paper, on the base of analyzing the distribution and configuration system with the theory of system science and the synergetic theory, we found the model for analyzing the one-echelon distribution network, the two-echelon distribution network and all together the vendor selection and inventory optimization of single enterprise and the supply chain, the main work are as follows:Firstly, we analyzed the distribution and configuration system in the supply chain with the system theory and depict the diagram after analyzing the system goals, the system structure, environmental factors and the system’s input and output. All together we analyze the cooperativity of the distribution and configuration system of supply chain, the future of order parameter and the relationship of self-organization and“organized”with the synergetic theory. Secondly, on the basis of analysis of the characteristics of the one-echelon distribution network of supply chain , we founded the model for the one-echelon distribution network of supply chain with a manufacturer to a retail and a manufacturer to many retails, found the corresponding solving method for it and draw the conclusions of decision-making optimization.Thirdly, we proposed an optimization bi-level programming model of two-echelon distribution network with a supplier, multi-distribution-centers and multi-shops based on analyzing a distribution model with a supplier, a distribution center and multi-shops under the condition of centralized control and uncertainty demand and capacity of distribution center, solves the model with intelligent optimization algorithm and compute with an example.Fourthly, we proposed an optimization model of the vendor selection of single enterprise based on the interval AHP and a single enterprise inventory optimization decision-making model based on that the demand is subordinated to the normal distribution and the product are made of many parts, and simulated for the first model with an example.Fifthly, we proposed a fuzzy chance-constrained programming model for the problem of the vendor selection and inventory optimization based on that the demand and lead time are fuzzy numbers under analyzing the problem of the vendor and inventory optimization with system theory. The solution based on genetic algorithms was proposed and an example was simulated after analyzing the solution of the model.In the end, this dissertation is summarized and further research directions are shown.