【作者】 王秀丽；

【导师】 詹原瑞；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 构建生态产业链是在企业群落层次上发展循环经济的主要方式,是实现生态工业的核心环节。生态产业链的结构及其运行机制是决定整个生态产业系统的稳定性和可持续性的关键因素。本文主要运用博弈论与信息经济学、环境经济学和自组织理论,对生态产业链的运作机制进行系统研究,本文的主要研究内容包括以下五个方面:运用自组织理论剖析了生态产业链的生成机制。应用耗散结构理论分析框架,阐释了生态产业链系统的开放性及远离平衡态的性质;剖析了生态产业链中的非线性作用和涨落现象;运用协同理论建立了系统的自组织动力学方程,通过对方程定态解稳定性的分析,讨论了生态产业链系统热力学分支失稳后收敛于有序的耗散结构分支上的可能性。运用博弈论研究了生态产业链中企业和政府的策略选择问题。建立了企业行为方式选择的静态博弈模型,通过纳什均衡分析得出企业参与生态产业链的决策依据;构建了政府激励策略选择模型,对其结论给出环境经济学解释;建立了企业和政府间的动态博弈模型,由子博弈精炼纳什均衡解得出政府最优补贴率及企业最优反应函数。对生态产业链合作中的几个关键问题进行了研究。建立了合作伙伴评价指标体系;提出了基于模糊层次分析法和证据理论结合的合作伙伴选择方法;应用信息经济学理论建立了生态产业链的逆向选择和道德风险模型;提出了合作伙伴间共生能量分配的修正Shapley值法。运用进化博弈论研究了生态产业链的稳定性问题。首先给出了进化博弈的基本分析框架;剖析了生态产业链演进过程的进化博弈特性;在此基础上建立了生态产业链演进的复制动态方程,得出了系统的五个局部不动点;利用Jacobian矩阵对不动点进行稳定性分析。研究了生态产业链中的信息共享机制。首先描述了生态产业链中的信息流及信息共享的特征;然后分析了生态产业链中信息共享的风险;最后给出信息共享的方案设计。文章最后对研究工作进行了总结,并对该领域的相关研究方向进行了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 The construction of ecological industrial chain (EIC) is the main mode of developing circular economy in the level of enterprises community and the core in developing ecological industries. The structure and operating mechanism of EIC are the key factors that determine the stability and sustainability of EIC. In this paper, the author systemically studied the operating mechanism of EIC by using theories of Game Theory, Information Economics, Environmental Economics and Self-Organization. The major contents of this paper include:An analysis on the generating mechanism of EIC by using the theory of Self-Organization. The author explained the nature of openness and state of far-away-from equilibrium of EIC system by using the analysis framework of Dissipative Structure theory; analyzed the nonlinear effects and fluctuation phenomena in EIC; constructed a Self-Organization kinetic equation by using Synergetic Theory and discussed the possibility of instable thermodynamic branch converging to orderly dissipative structure branch in EIC system through analyzing the stability of steady state solution of the equation.Study on the strategy selection of the enterprises and government in EIC. The author established a static game model of the enterprises behavior selection and obtained the decision-making basis of enterprises in EIC through the Nash Equilibrium analysis; constructed a model of government incentive strategy selection, presented its conclusion with environmental economics explanations; established a dynamic model between the enterprises and government, obtained government’s optimal subsidy rate and enterprises’optimal reaction function from sub-game refined Nash equilibrium.An analysis on the key issues of cooperation in EIC. The author established evaluation index system of cooperators; put forward methods of cooperator selection based on FAHP and evidences; established adverse selection and moral risk models in EIC by using the Information Economics theory; put forward the adjusted Shapley-Value method of symbiotic energy distribution between cooperators.Study on the stability of EIC by using the evolutionary game theory. Firstly the author put forward the basic framework of analysis; analyzed the characteristics of evolutionary game in the evolution of EIC; established a replicated dynamic equation of the evolution of EIC and obtained 5 local fixed points in the system; analyzed the stability of fixed points by using Jacobian matrix.Study on the information sharing mechanism in EIC. Firstly the author described the flow of information and the features of information sharing in EIC; then analyzed the risks of information sharing in EIC; finally, put forward the program design of information sharing.Finally, the author made a summary on the research work above and forecasted the related research trend of the field in the future.更多还原