啤酒业上市公司绩效评价系统研究

【作者】 金志国；

【导师】 李京文； 伍海华；

【作者基本信息】 青岛大学 ， 系统理论， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 中国的上市公司是自20世纪80年代中期以来伴随着国有企业股份制改造而发展起来的,随着经济发展步伐的加快,上市公司规模稳步增长,现已经成为国民经济的一支生力军。另一方面,证券市场的不断规范发展和投资者投资理念的逐步完善,使上市公司业绩评价问题成为证券市场上的热点。通过对上市公司纵向绩效的分析比较,可以判断企业的成长性,通过对上市公司绩效的横向比较,可以判断企业的优劣。另外,上市公司经营绩效评价在引导投资者理性投资,协助市场管理者加强监管,督促上市公司加强内部管理等方面的作用也十分重要。因此,上市公司的经营绩效评价具有极其重要的理论与现实意义。啤酒是世界上产销量最大的酒类饮料。尽管啤酒与葡果酒、黄酒、饮料、乳业等产业虽然在外观上不同,但是在产品特性与市场运行趋势上却有着惊人的相似之处。而啤酒行业是一个营销过度、竞争惨烈的行业,它的发展过程对于饮品行业具有极大的参考价值。中国市场作为全球啤酒行业的竞争中心,具有巨大的市场潜力,因而,中国啤酒行业具有重要的研究价值。传统的上市公司经营绩效评价系统主要从公司财务指标出发,重结果、轻过程,另外,在很大程度上无法消除评判者主观因素的影响,因而具有局限性。实际上一些非财务指标在衡量公司经营绩效方面也起着很大作用。所以,传统上市公司经营绩效评价系统不能全面地反映出企业的资源和实力,在现代经济发展过程中不能满足指导投资者理性投资、协助市场管理者加强监管、督促上市公司加强内部管理等方面的作用,甚至在一定程度上影响了投资者的投资决策。本文从上市公司绩效评价的意义和发展历史入手,在考察了国外一些经典的绩效评价方法并借鉴了国内外已有的对上市公司进行测评的主要实践后,结合我国证券市场的特殊性和上市公司经营绩效综合测评的目的,综合考虑影响公司绩效的财务指标,综合运用因子分析法、层次分析法和数据包络分析法等现代数理统计理论,构建复合二次相对评价系统模型,对我国九家啤酒业上市公司的经营绩效进行评价,并提出改进建议,以此完善业绩评价理论体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 The subject of this article is Performance evaluation systems for listed companies in the beer field. The listed company of China have developed accompanying with the reformation of the shareholding system since the mid 80’s.Along with the quick-stepped economy development and the steady growth of the listed company scale, The listed company of China have already become the fresh troops of the national economy. The improvement of the securities market shapes investors’ consciousness and makes the Performance evaluation systems for listed companies to be a new focus which attract more attention from the investors and inspectors. Comparison lengthways of the listed companies’ performance can judge companies’ growth ability; moreover, analysis crossly can judge difference among companies. The Performance evaluation systems of the listed companies have significant meanings because it plays an important role in guiding rational investment, assisting market supervision, enhancing inside management.As is known to all, beer owns the biggest capacity of production & sales in the world alcoholic drink. Though beer differentiates from many industries, such as wine, yellow wine, soft drinks and milk products, beer and these above-mentioned industries have amazing similarities in produce specialty and marketing operation. Moreover, beer industry is an over-marketing and keen-competitive field, so its development possesses huge reference value to the other beverage industries. In addition, as the competition center of the world beer industry, China beer market own tremendous market latent capacity. Therefore it has great research value in China beer industry.The traditional theories and methods of listed company performance estimation set mainly out from company financial indexes, focusing too much on the results, ignoring the estimation process. Besides, traditional theories and methods can’t avoid influence from subjective factors, so the judgment shows heavy limitation. In fact, some non-financial indexes play important roles in the company performance estimation. So in the modern economy, the traditional methods have less ability to meet the needs of guiding rational investment, assisting market supervision and enhancing inside management because of its invalidation in reflecting company’s power.According to the meaning and the development history of the listed company results evaluation, this dissertation inspected some classic foreign evaluation method and refer to the main practice to the listed company at home and abroad, combining the specialty of our country stock market and the purpose of synthetic measure. And then colligated financial indexes and non-financial indexes, made use of the modern mathematics statistics theories, and combined three methods(Factor analysis ,The Analytic Hierarchy Process(short for AHP) , Data Envelopment Analysis, (short for DEA) ) to bright forward the compositive two-stage relative estimation modal. At last, 9 listed companies of beer industry in China were estimated though demonstration research using compositive two-stage estimation method, then put forward the improvement suggestion to improve the evaluate theories system.更多还原