【作者】 柳尧杰；

【导师】 陈德棉；

【作者基本信息】 同济大学 ， 技术经济与管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 我国汽车市场正在经历着爆发式的增长,我国的汽车工业也正抓住机遇、积极成长。我国汽车产业和全球汽车产业一道面临着全面的技术和产品提升,其最重要的驱动力就是汽车电子化。汽车产业正在实现传统机械产业和现代电子信息产业的产业融合,汽车产品正由传统的机械产品向着自动化、电子化、智能化、网络化的机电一体化产品快速演进,这极大地改善了汽车的综合性能,使汽车在安全、节能、环保、舒适等各方面都有了长足的进步。汽车电子化被认为是汽车技术发展进程中的一次革命,汽车电子化的程度被看作是衡量现代汽车水平的重要标志,也是一个国家电子信息产业水平的体现;是企业用来开发新车型、改进汽车性能最重要的技术措施。通过增加汽车电子设备的数量、促进汽车电子化,已成为夺取未来汽车市场的重要的有效手段。汽车产业在快速发展,电子产品在汽车整车中的运用比例在不断提高,双重因素的驱动使得我国汽车电子市场具有广阔的发展前景,汽车电子产业存在巨大的发展机遇和投资机会。但前景和机遇不等同于现实,在现阶段,我国汽车工业发展基本处于在依靠市场拉动阶段,在技术高端缺乏竞争力。汽车电子产业小、散、乱,在产业链上处于无足轻重的位置,国内汽车电子市场份额绝大部分被跨国企业的独资、合资企业占有,高端汽车电子产品的配套更是被他们所垄断。这一事实基本决定了我国的汽车电子产业发展在现阶段必须要走以市场拉动为主的道路,市场拉动阶段的我国汽车电子产业要求产业规律优先于技术规律。本文对我国汽车电子产业进行研究,全文共分六部分,首先对选题背景和研究意义以及本文的研究内容、论文结构和研究方法进行介绍;其次,对本文所运用的理论文献和研究方法进行了概述,以介绍理论精髓和对本文的价值;第三部分着重介绍了全球及我国汽车电子产业的现状、发展环境、发展趋势、发展特点以及产业发展面临的问题,着力以数据说明问题,从数据中推演趋势;通过线性回归分析建立了汽车电子产业的需求方程;第四部分运用SCP理论模型探讨汽车电子产业现状、市场供需结构、市场集中度与竞争格局、进入壁垒、竞争行为、盈利水平及其影响因素,并对我国汽车电子产业和市场结构、行为、绩效、发展趋势、特点和面临的问题进行了分析与讨论,在总体上映像出我国汽车电子产业的现状与未来。第五部分为本文的核心部分,主要对我国的汽车电子产业的投资价值和投资机会进行多角度分析。利用定性和定量方法,对我国汽车电子产业及其细分领域所处生命周期阶段进行了判断;分析了我国汽车电子产业及其细分领域的竞争格局、盈利水平和成长性;对我国整车厂商和汽车电子供应商的协作关系进行了讨论;建立了汽车电子产业和细分领域投资价值评价模型;以“主成分分析法”对我国主要汽车电子企业进行了实证分析;建立产业间投资价值比较评估模型;对我国汽车电子产业的投资风险和投资策略提出了建议。最后,对本文进行了结论性综述,并对进一步研究进行展望。研究分析表明,我国汽车电子产业整体处于成长期,具有高成长性和高盈利能力,但细分领域水平不尽相同。我国汽车电子企业在产业链中处于低端,竞争中处于劣势,机会和挑战并存,必须认真研究策略,审慎评估风险。行业研究的意义在于解剖现实,分析趋势,发现价值,寻找机会。本文旨在对我国汽车电子产业的发展趋势、发展前景进行分析,对该产业及其细分领域的投资价值和投资机会等相关方面的课题进行探讨,以期为宏观和微观领域的决策者提供一点参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rapid development of China’s auto industry for automotive electronic products showed a broad market prospect, Widely used in all areas of vehicle electronics technology, which has greatly improved the overall performance of the automobile, motor vehicle safety, energy-saving, environmental protection, such as comfortable in all aspects of the remarkable progress. ESD vehicle was considered a revolution in automotive technology development process. By the degree of automotive electronics as an important indicator for measuring the level of the modern automobile is used to develop new models, the most important technical measures to improve vehicle performance. By increasing the number of vehicles, electronic equipment, auto electronics, winning future auto market has become an important and effective means.China’s auto market is experiencing explosive growth. China’s auto industry is also seizing the opportunity and actively growing. Meanwhile, the global automotive and component manufacturers also mass transfer to China. Automobile industry is faced with comprehensive technical and product upgrading; the driving force is the most important vehicle electronics. ESD level is an important indicator of a country’s auto industry and a reflection of the level of a country’s electronics and information industry. Rapid advance of ESD of the world auto industry’s has provided a rare opportunity not only brought tremendous challenges for the development and growth of China’s auto industry.However, the automotive electronics industry’s development is not a purely technical issue, but a technical economic issue. And industries, the market are closely related to the problem. China’ s automobile industry is now basically at the stage pulled by the market in high-end technology competitiveness. From the perspective of industrial chain. This basic fact of China’s development of automotive electronics industry must go to the main road pulled by the market at this stage. Market demand pull phase of the auto and electronics industries in the technology industry law priority rules. The development of the auto industry and the improvement of people in the car have boosted the rapid development of automotive electronics industry. Automotive electronics industry in China is a good market prospects industries and have a great potential for development.The new Chinese-style economic development strategies, while also promoting the industrialization of high and new technology, not even a basis for exclusion in some high-tech areas and the implementation of a strategy of catching up, but its focus should be: approved the introduction of high-tech traditional production mode to a higher level of development of traditional industries. To promote the formation and development of high-tech industries. The significance of the industry study are to find value, recognized the value, and search for investment opportunities. Automotive investments in domestic productivity growth can bring little theoretical research. Based on China’s national conditions, through empirical studies, the text analysizes the relationship between productivity and investment in automotive electronics. Considering the characteristics of the car and electronics industries and the automotive electronics industry , the text inspects the intrinsic relationship between the levels of performance, and the market structure, competitive position and other factors, products and services in order to judge the investment value of the automobile electronics industries and those enterprises in this area. The full text is divided into six parts, mainly including industrial development theory, China Automotive Electronics Industry, market conditions and investment opportunities in other areas in detail. Hope to provide a theoretical reference for the country’s "information-based industrialization, information technology to stimulate industrialization" policy .更多还原