【作者】 张雅丽；

【导师】 范秀荣；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 现代化是人类共同追求的目标,工业化是实现现代化的必由之路,是不可逾越的重要历史阶段。大力发展工业,走工业化道路,是农业人口占大多数的中国实现经济发展的核心,是全面实现小康社会的必然选择。经过半个世纪的奋斗,中国已经建立了独立的较为完整的工业体系和国民经济体系。但离完成工业化还有相当长的一段路要走。十六大报告提出“农村富余劳动力向非农产业和城镇转移,是工业化和现代化的必然趋势”。从长远趋势来看,农村劳动力转移在今后一段时期仍将是中国工业化的关键因素,如何解决好农村劳动力在工业化进程中的转移问题是新时期经济发展中的重大课题。中国是一个人口众多的发展中大国,实现工业化具有特定的国情、制度背景和崭新的世界环境,中国工业化进程中农村劳动力转移问题不能也无法遵循西方国家传统的理论范式和转移路径。因此,借鉴国外经验,立足中国基本国情,探讨中国工业化进程中农村劳动力转移的规律和影响因素,对中国工业化进程中政府政策的制定和指导农村劳动力的顺利转移具有非常重要的实践价值和理论指导意义。本文以产业经济学、发展经济学、教育经济学、劳动经济学、人口经济学等相关理论和发达国家成功的实践经验为指导,运用定性分析和定量分析相结合、规范分析和实证分析相结合的方法,探索了中国工业化进程中农村劳动力转移的特征和规律;创建了中国工业化进程中农村劳动力转移的“新三力模型”即:推力模型、拉力模型、中间力量模型和合力模型;在对模型进行实证分析的基础上,得出了如下具有新意的结论:(1)农用机械总动力和有效灌溉面积所代表的农业生产效率的提高对农村劳动力转移的推动力在现阶段并不表现为正向的推动作用,而表现为一种“反推力”。说明农村劳动力转移的推力不足。(2)农村劳动力的转移和经济发展息息相关。经济改革在经历一段时间对重工业优先的发展战略矫正之后,又回复到重工业领先增长的轨道,从而使第二产业的发展对劳动力的就业从某种程度上讲具有挤出效应,但是农村工业化对农村劳动力转移具有重大的拉动力;在经济发展中,第三产业的发展是农村劳动力转移的巨大拉动力量。(3)城市化发展对农村劳动力转移具有显著的拉动力量,但是改革开放以来我国农村劳动力的转移更多的是通过产业带动,而没有发挥城市化发展带来的规模经济和聚集经济效应,这也是近几年农村劳动力转移速度不快的主要原因。(4)市场化发展程度和制度变迁及农村人力资本状况对农村劳动力的转移有着显著的正向影响等。进而提出了中国工业化进程中农村劳动力转移的路径选择和相关的政策建议。论文由5部分8章内容构成:第一部分(第一章)主要阐述论文的选题背景、研究目的和意义,对国内外农村劳动力转移研究动态进行了评述,说明本文研究的思路、方法和可能创新之处。第二部分(第二章第三章)主要阐述工业化进程中农村劳动力转移的相关理论和发达国家工业化进程中农村劳动力转移的实践经验。其中:第二章阐述了工业化进程中农村劳动力转移的有关理论,重点阐述了发展中国家二元经济结构中劳动力转移的理论模式:即刘易斯二元经济理论、拉尼斯—费模式、乔根森模式、托达罗模式和“推—拉”理论。这些理论为全文的写作提供了依据。第三章重点探讨发达国家和新型工业化国家农村劳动力转移的历史规律:(1)工业化导致产业结构的变化,从而影响劳动者就业结构的变化和就业的选择,在产业结构调整过程中,劳动力不断从低级产业向高级产业转移。(2)产业革命导致生产规模的扩大和生产的集中,促使农村劳动力不断向城市地区集聚,最终实现城市化。(3)发达国家农村劳动力是在工业化和城市化同步演进过程中实现产业转移和空间集聚的。第三部分(第四章)重点探讨了中国工业化进程中农村劳动力转移的特征规律,在对农村劳动力转移现状进行分析的基础上,指出中国目前农村劳动力转移面临的主要问题和症结所在。分析表明:中国工业化进程中农村劳动力转移变化和经济波动周期基本相吻合。从产业转移的角度看,劳动力就业结构滞后于产业结构发展。从乡城转移的角度看,城市化率低于非农就业的增长。目前面临的主要问题表现为,劳动力供大于求,但年轻劳动力有限剩余与农村中年劳动力难以转移的现象并存,农业劳动力弱化与非农产业技工短缺、产业工人的不确定性并存;劳动力就业的渠道狭窄,农村劳动力转移主要表现为短期流动;农村劳动力流动方式具有很大的自发性和无序性;流向过度集中于东南沿海,过多流向大城市、特别是特大城市,造成结构失衡;社会保障制度不健全,农村劳动力退出农业难,进入非农产业取得稳定的工作进程缓慢,融入城市状况差等。第四部分(第五章第六章)以农村劳动力转移的相关理论为指导,借鉴发达国家成功的实践经验,结合中国的实际情况,对影响中国工业化进程中农村劳动力转移的各个因素进行定性和定量分析。其中:第五章在借鉴“推-拉理论”的基础上,结合中国国情,构建了“新三力模型”。即“推力模型”、“拉力模型”和“中间力量模型”,并对这三种“力”的内涵作了特殊的理解。第六章结合统计资料对“新三力模型”进行了检验,并在此基础上建立了农村劳动力转移的“合力模型”。“推力模型”分析结果表明:(1)农用机械总动力和有效灌溉面积所代表的农业生产效率的提高对农村劳动力转移在现阶段表现为一种“反推力”。(2)农村劳动力的数量对农村劳动力转移产生正向的推动作用。(3)农村居民家庭人均纯收入的提高有利于农村劳动力的转移。(4)农业增加值占国内生产总值比重变量对农村劳动力转移的影响作用最大。“拉力模型”的分析结果表明:(1)农村工业化是影响农村劳动力转移的最主要的“拉力”因素。(2)第三产业和城市化的发展及城乡居民收入差距的扩大是农村劳动力的转移巨大拉动力量。(3)第二产业的发展对劳动力的就业从某种程度上讲具有挤出效应。“中间力量”模型的分析结果表明:(1)城市失业率对于农村劳动转移有着显著的负面影响。(2)政府的有关政策对农村劳动力的转移起到了积极的推动作用。(3)提高农村劳动力的文化素质和技术技能,可以促进农村劳动力的顺利转移。“综合模型”的分析表明:(1)在工业化进程中影响农村劳动力转移的主要因素表现为:乡村劳动力数量、经济发展水平、农村居民家庭人均纯收入、劳动者自身素质、市场化发展程度和制度变迁。(2)改革开放以来我国农村劳动力的转移更多的是通过产业带动,而没有发挥城市化发展带来的规模经济和聚集经济效应。第五部分(第七章第八章)指出中国工业化进程中农村劳动力转移的路径,并提出相关保证措施和对策建议。其中:第七章认为解决农业劳动力转移问题的工作思路是,进行产业结构的调整,加快发展二、三产业,并使产业在城镇集聚,促进城市化的建设和发展。首先要推进农村工业化建设。其次要加快工业化的步伐,促进产业结构的不断调整升级。第三要加快城市化的发展步伐。第八章提出了农村劳动力转移的支撑条件,认为农村劳动力转移是一项社会系统工程,是政府、社区或个人三者基本行为主体具体运作的结果。要充分发挥政府调控主体的力量,改革户籍制度和土地流转制度,构建农民工社会保障制度,建立城乡平等统一的劳动力就业市场。同时要加强教育和培训,提高劳动力的素质,保证农村农动力的顺利转移。更多还原

【Abstract】 Modernization is the common goal of mankind and industrialization is the only way to achieve modernization which is an unsurpassable historical stage. Developing industry energetically and taking the road of industrialization is not only the core of realizing economic growth but the necessary choice of fully realizing affluent society in China, most of whose population continues to be engaged in agriculture.After struggling for half a century, China has established a relatively independent and self-sufficient industrial and economic system. Full industrialization remains a long way off, however. The Sixteenth National Congress reports that“Transferring the surplus rural labour to non-agricultural and urban sectors is the inevitable trend of industrialization and modernization”. Judging from the long-term trend, rural labour transfer still remains the key factor in the process of industrialization and urbanization. Resolving the problems that arise from this shift of rural labour remains a significant issue in the economic development of new era.China is a huge developing country with a large population. Its industrialization has a specific national context, with a unique governance background that co-exists with a new world environment. The problem of rural labour transfer which exists in China’s industrialization process cannot follow the same trajectory as that followed in western countries. So, based on China’s basic national conditions, drawing lessons from foreign experience, and discussing the factors behind rural labour transfer all contribute to government policy and guidance of realizing rural labour transfer in this area.This dissertation takes the industrial economics, development economics, education economics, labour economics, population economics and other correlative theories, and the successful experience of developed countries as instruction. It unifies the qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis, the canonical analysis and the positive analysis to explore the characters and laws of rural labour transfer in the Chinese industrialization advancement and founds the“new tri-strength model”(thrust force model, pull force model, intermediary force model) of rural labour transfer and cooperate model. Based on positive analysis to the models, it leads to a created conclusion as follows: (1) Impetus of rural labour transfer produced by enhancement of agricultural machinery’s gross power and effective irrigated area does not show forward promotion effect, but“anti-thrust”at this stage. It indicates that rural labour transfer is insufficient. (2)The shift of rural labour force is closely related to economic development. The economic reform corrects the developmental strategy of“heavy industry first”in a period of time, but now back to the track of the heavy industry growing in the lead, and thus the development of secondary industry impose an crowding-out effect on the employment of labour force, however, rural industrialization draw the shift of rural labour dramatically; in economic development, the development of tertiary industry is an huge pulling power of rural labour transfer. (3)The development of urbanization play a significant role on pulling rural labour transfer, bur the shift of our rural labour is mainly droved by the industries after the economic reform, but has not utilized the scale economics and cluster economics effect, what is just the primary reason of the slow velocity of rural labour transfer in these years. (4) The degree of marketization development and the system vicissitude as well as rural human capital states have the remarkable forward influence on transfer of rural labour. And then it proposes the path-choices and the relative policy suggestions of rural labour transfer in Chinese industrialization.This dissertation consists of 5 parts (8 chapters):Part One (Chapter One): This part mainly elaborates topics background, purpose and significance of research, and reviews the domestic and foreign research about rural labour transfer. Additionally, explain the ideas, methods and possible innovation in this dissertation.Part Two (Chapter Two and Chapter Three): This part primarily elaborates theory about rural labour transfer in industrialization process and practical experience of developed country. Hereon, Chapter Two expound some relevant theories about rural labour transfer in industrialization process, and focus on the theoretical mode of labour transfer in dual economic structure of developing country: Lewes dual economy theory, Ranis-Fei model, Jorgenson’s model, M.P.Todalo’s model, and“thrust-pull”theory. These theories provide a basis for writing full test. Chapter Three focus on history rule of rural labour transfer in developed countries and newly industrializing countries: (1) Industrialization leads to changes in the industrial structure, thereby influences employment pattern and employment choices. In the process of industrial restructuring, the labour shift from low-grade to high-grade industry unceasingly. (2) Industrial Revolution leads to expansion of production scale and aggregation of production, which continuously collects rural labour to city, eventually realizes urbanization. (3) Transfer of rural labour in the developed countries was realized through industry transfer and special gathering during the synchronous evolution process of industrialization and urbanization.Part Three (Chapter Four) This part focus on the characteristics of rural labour transfer in china’s industrialization process, and points out the main problem and crux of China’s rural labour transfer by performing an analysis for the status of China’s rural labour transfer. Analysis showed that: the changes of rural labour transfer basically dovetail with the economic fluctuation period in china’s industrialization process. From the view of industries transfer, development of labour employment structure lags behind that of industrial structure. From the view of cities and towns transfer, urbanization rate is lower than the growth of non-agricultural employment. At present, the main problem is oversupplied labour. But the limited and surplus young labour coexists with middle-aged labors that are difficult to shift; weakened agricultural labour coexists with the shortage of skilled workers and the uncertainty of industrialist in non-agricultural industries. Channel of Employment is narrow, and transfer of rural labour is mainly short-term flows;rural labour flow is seriously spontaneity and randomness and centralizes in the southeast coast, big cities and megalopolis that cause the unbalance of labour employment structure. Social security system is not perfect, rural labour is difficult to leave agriculture, enter non-agricultural industries and blend into cities.Part Four (Chapter Five and Chapter Six) Under guidance of relevant theory, the two chapters absorb the successful experience of the rural labor’s transfer in developed countries, and combine the practical situation of China, then analyze the factors which influence transfer of China’s rural labour with qualitative and quantitative methods. Among which, chapter five found“new tri-strength model”referring to“push - pull theory”. It’s“tri-strength”theory-“thrust force”,“pull force”and“intermediary force”; and then master their meaning in specific way.Chapter Six tested the“new tri-strength model”with statistical information, and established“integrated model”of rural labour transfer. The“thrust force model”analysis showed: (1) Impetus of rural labour transfer by the enhancement of agricultural machinery’s gross power and the effective irrigated area shows the“anti-thrust”at the present stage. (2) The quantity of rural labour gave a positive impetus to rural labour transfer. (3) Increasing of income per capita in rural families favored transfer of rural labour. (4) The specific gravity variable of added value of agriculture to the GDP is the maximal effect for rural labour transfer. The“pull force model”analysis showed: (1) Rural industrialization is the main "pull" factor influencing rural labour transfer. (2) The development of tertiary industry and urbanization as well as the expansion of income gap between urban and rural residents are gigantic pulling strength of rural labour transfer. (3) To some extent, the development of the secondary industry produces a crowd-out effect on rural labour transfer. Analysis of“intermediary force model”shows: (1) Urban unemployment rate has a significant negative impact on rural labour transfer. (2) Government policy has played a positive role in transfer of rural labour. (3) Enhancing the quality and technical skills of rural labour can promote rural labour transfer smoothly. The“collective model”analysis shows: the main factors affecting rural labour transfer in the process of industrialization are: number of rural labour, the level of economic development, net income of per capita in rural, quality of labour, the level of marketization and institutional change. (2) Since reform and opening-up, transfer of rural labour in our country is mostly driven by industry, underplay effect of scale economy and cluster economy brought by the urbanization development.Part Five(Chapter Seven and Chapter Eight) These two chapters point out the path of transfer of China’s rural labour in industrialization process, and propose relevant security measures, countermeasure and suggestions. Chapter seven believes that the practical method of solving the problem of rural labour transfer is to adjust the structure of industry, speed up the development of secondary and tertiary industries, concentrate the industries in cities and towns, and promote the construction and development of urban areas. First is to advance the construction of rural industrialization. Second, we must accelerate the pace of industrialization and continuously adjust and upgrade the industrial structure. Third, we should accelerate the city development.Chapter eight gives the supporting conditions of rural labour transfer. It believes that rural labour transfer is a social project, is a result made by the practical operation of the Government, the community and the individual. We should give full play to the strength of the regulation and control of the main body by the government, and reform the household registry system and the land-circulation system, construct the social security system for rural workers, establish an equal and unified labour market for urban and rural employment. Meanwhile, we should strengthen the education and training; improve the quality of the labour force to ensure a smooth transfer of rural labour.更多还原