【作者】 卢二坡；

【导师】 曾五一；

【作者基本信息】 厦门大学 ， 统计学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 长期以来,传统的宏观经济学一直将短期波动和长期增长看作是互不相关的两个领域,然而,现在有越来越多的文献表明二者可能是相关的。波动和增长间的关系如何具有重要的政策含义。由于不同制度环境的国家二者的关系也可能不同,因此,针对具体国家的具体研究具有重要意义。目前,中国的增长和波动间的关系问题还很少有人关注,本文尝试在这方面有所贡献。本文的目标是从经验分析的角度来研究转型期中国短期波动对长期增长的影响。为了更好的理解波动和增长间的关系,本文首先对国内外的相关文献作了评述,并重点讨论了各种波动的含义及测度方法,分析了由于制度环境的不同而使得波动对增长的非线性影响。然后,本文分析了经济转型对中国经济增长和经济波动的影响,定量分析了各地区经济增长和经济波动的动态变化。最后,本文使用中国跨地区面板数据以及适当的计量方法,研究了经济波动对经济增长的影响,以及市场化和对外开放程度的不同可能对二者关系的影响,并对经验研究的结果提供了可能的解释。根据这些解释,本文还对中国经济波动影响经济增长的机制作了经验分析。本文的经验研究表明,市场化程度的提高有助于减轻波动对增长的负面影响,各地区经济波动对经济增长的影响随市场化程度的不同而具有异质性,市场化程度高的地区该效应为正,而市场化程度低的地区为负,并且这一结果通过了不同的稳健性检验。本文进一步的研究还表明,非国有经济投资可能是我国波动影响长期增长的重要渠道之一,此外,本文没有发现波动显著影响生产率的证据。更多还原

【Abstract】 A strong tradition among macroeconomist has been to study the short-run volatility and long-run growth as two separate phenomena. However, increasingly important literature suggests that there is relationship between volatility and growth. The relationship has significant policy implications, which, moreover, depend on the sign of the relationship. Because the relationship may depend on country characteristics, such as institution environment, it is important to study it aiming at concrete country. Presently, there is a major ignorance in the literature of the link between volatility and growth in China, this dissertation try to contribute to this area.The objective of this paper is to provide empirical evidence on the effect of volatility on growth in transitional period of China. In order to help understand the relationship and put into context the empirical results, this paper at first reviews the theoretical and empirical literature examining the effect of volatility on growth. Also, the various meanings and measures of volatility have been discussed and the nonlinear effect of volatility on growth due to the different institution environment has been analyzed. Then, the effects of China’s market-oriented reform and openness to the outside on growth and volatility have been analyzed, and a variety of stylized facts about the changes in the dynamics of growth and volatility over time and across regions have been provided. At last, using panel data for Chinese provinces and appropriate econometric methods, this paper conduct a more formal analysis of the effect of volatility on growth, including an examining how evolutions of marketization and openness may have affected this relationship. Also, Several possible interpretations for empirical results have been provided. Based on these interpretations, this paper explores some channels that guide the relationship between Chinese volatility and growth.The main empirical result of this paper is that marketization significantly weaken the negative effect of volatility on growth, the association between volatility and growth depends on the extents of marketization. In provinces of more marketization, the relationship appears to be positive, whereas in less marketization ones, it is negative. The robustness of these results has been tested. Further empirical study indicates that non-state-owned investment may be the important channels through which China’s volatility affects growth. Moreover, the study suggests that there is no significant relation between volatility and productivity.更多还原