【作者】 胡颖；

【导师】 李文溥；

【作者基本信息】 厦门大学 ， 政治经济学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 汇率政策作为调节宏观经济内外平衡的政策工具,对于宏观经济稳定具有重要意义。本文从国际收支调节的角度,综合运用国际收支调整的弹性理论和不完全汇率传递理论,着重研究汇率变动对贸易收支调节是否有效。二十世纪90年代以来,在中国经济体制转型和全球产业转移的背景下,中国对外贸易发展迅速,贸易商品结构逐渐升级,贸易方式构成中加工贸易比重偏高。在特定经济发展阶段和特定贸易结构特征下,研究汇率变动对贸易收支的调节的有效性不但对拓展汇率政策传导的研究具有理论意义,而且对于中国汇率政策、贸易政策以及对外开放模式的选择都具有重要的现实意义。本文的创新主要有两点:1、分析框架的创新。本文从弹性分析法的角度,研究了长期内我国汇率政策的有效性。依据不完全汇率传递理论对汇率政策的传导路径进行分析,进而从汇率政策传导机制角度揭示加工贸易方式对汇率政策效应的影响。因此本文依据国际收支调节的弹性分析方法、“J曲线”理论和汇率不完全传递理论,运用现代计量经济学技术全面、系统地分析汇率政策传导途径以及汇率政策的效果,对于汇率政策有效性的研究更为全面。2、研究角度创新。从总量上研究汇率变动对贸易收支的影响存在偏误,本文注重结构研究,分别从国别结构、地区结构两个结构层面上来考察汇率政策有效性,揭示了汇率政策在调节双边贸易收支和中国各地区贸易收支上差异性。结构分析比总量分析具有更明确的政策意义。本文认为中国贸易顺差问题不仅是汇率政策问题,更重要的是结构问题。加工贸易方式是制约汇率政策有效性的重要因素。人民币大幅升值能够在短期内减少中国贸易顺差,但在保持宏观经济平稳运行的目标约束下,人民币应依据小幅的、渐进的方式升值。这样,汇率政策在短期内是无效的,但长期来看,则能够逐渐实现平衡贸易顺差的目的。调节中国贸易顺差更要从结构调整入手,包括产业结构调整和收入分配结构调整。更多还原

【Abstract】 As one of major macroscopic policy tool, exchange rate policy is important for government in pursuing internal and external equilibrium. From the balance of payment angle, I study the validity of exchange rate policy on adjusting trade balance.Since 1990s’, under the ground of China’s system reform and global industry shift, Chinese foreign trade made great development. The trade commodity structure promotes gradually, and the radio of processes trade in total trade became more. As the specific trade structure would influence the validity of exchange rate policy, studying the validity of exchange rate policy in such specific development phase has theory significance. Moreover, the effect of exchange rate policy has vital practical significance for trade policy and exchange rate policy marking, and for opening pattern selection.There are two innovations in my dissertation:First, I examine the long-run bilateral relationship between the exchange rate and real trade balance on a quarterly basis over 1995 to 2006 using the partial reduced form model. Then, I study the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import price and then to export price, the purpose of which is to examine the conduction way of exchange rate policy. Therefore, my analysis is more systematical and comprehensive than the previous study.Second, I study the effectiveness of exchange policy on bilateral trade basis and on the area structure basis respectively, but not on aggregate analysis. As there are some useful information would be ignored in aggregate analysis, expecially when some countries have trade surplus with China and some have trade deficit with China. Moreover, structure analysis has definite policy significance compared to aggregate analysis, and would be useful for government policy making.My findings suggest that the real exchange rate do have an impact on some bilateral trade balance in the long run if exchange rate appreciates more quickly. However, big exchange appreciate will do harm to macroscopic economy, such as investment, employment and so on. According to forecast, when RMB appreciates over 6%, investment and export will decrease, and then the employment will fall. The government must keep internal stable when adjusting external unbalance. Therefore, it is necessary to keep exchange rate appreciate gradually. Further studies suggest that exchange rate misalignment is not the only reason causing great trade surplus. Empirical analysis indicates that it is the process trade pattern that made exchange rate policy invalid in the short run. And the short of demand is another reason making great trade surplus.The findings indicate that it needful to adjust trade unbalance by structure reform, including industrial structure adjustment and income distribution adjustment.更多还原