【作者】 张香平；

【导师】 唐桢敏；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 系统工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 城市交通的机动化、个性化与城市经济实力的提升密不可分,在扩展人们出行空间的同时,都市的生活质量也得到了提高。值得注意的是,机动化进程的加快尤其是私人小汽车的不断增长在给人们带来方便的同时衍生了许多问题;其中,最突出的是伴随机动车的迅速增长而急剧失衡的道路供求关系,它进一步导致了城市交通系统效率的降低、不同方式公平性的破坏。国内外的理论研究和交通需求管理实践表明:道路交通的运行状况与机动车拥有量之间并没有直接的对应关系,道路交通运行主要取决于机动车的使用情况,而后者是可以加以控制的。我国城市的交通需求管理实践起步不久,尚处于建设与管理并重的阶段。不过,近年我国在借鉴发达国家的研究和实践成果的同时,结合我国城市交通的实际情况,也已经做了许多的相关工作。本文基于经济学之外部性的微观分析原理和方法,研究城市地区私人小汽车使用导致的城市交通系统的外部费用;进一步地,结合交通需求管理措施,探讨合理内部化的措施和效果。最后,结合北京市的实际情况,计算相关的外部费用,分析相应的内部化措施及其效果。本文的主要研究内容包括以下几部分:(1)外部性理论分析方法的系统阐述。从数学的角度对外部性进行模型刻画,阐述外部经济性和外部不经济性的内涵;从解释途径出发,论述外部性概念的六个重要理论基础,并对外部性的相对度量方法和绝对度量方法予以论述。进一步地,重点论述外部性的微观分析原理和方法。举例描述解决外部性问题的庇古理论和科斯定理及他们所存在的固有缺陷,并对解决外部性问题的庇古思路和科斯思路进行比较,给出适用范围。(2)城市地区私人小汽车使用外部性费用的系统分析。分别从环境污染、交通拥挤影响、交通事故以及土地开发四个方面进行详细论述。对环境污染的外部性主要体现在空气污染、噪声污染以及全球气候影响等方面,着重分析私人小汽车排放对空气污染的外部成本。对交通拥挤的外部性主要体现为交通延误的时间费用,此外也包括空气污染、交通事故等方面。对交通事故的外部性,基于对生命价值的不同认识,计算也存在差异,本文采用国家价值贡献方法,通过对交通事故死亡者余生所创造的国家价值评价交通事故的外部成本。对于土地开发的外部性,基于交通与土地开发之间存在相互协调相互影响的关系进行研究。(3)外部性成本内部化的政策与措施的探讨。确定外部成本内部化的三个主要原则,指出外部性内部化的总目标是使社会效益(社会福利)最大化,小汽车外部成本内部化即通过对运输设施的使用者,承担自己造成的全部社会成本,使经济与环境资源总的利用更有效率。计划管理政策和经济手段是运输管理部门可采取的两个主要策略。其中,重点探讨道路收费的措施,通过对交通拥挤定价策略、交通拥挤收费的理论基础、时间差价拥挤收费政策的分析,阐述实施交通拥挤收费应注意的若干问题。(4)外部性成本内部化的效果分析。在对交通运输方式外部性以及外部成本内部化的作用进行阐述的基础上,以小汽车使用的社会边际成本为参考依据,分三种情况对外部成本内部化效果进行经济分析。另外,利用经济学原理,分析小汽车外部成本内部化的替代效应与收入效应,结论表明,对小汽车使用外部成本内部化,有利于城市客运交通系统中各种运输方式间的公平竞争,促进外部成本比较低的公共交通的发展。进一步地,根据随机用户均衡配流理论,建立外部费用内部化效果评估模型,并对模型的算法进行分析。利用一个算例,分析有、无拥挤收费两种情况下,得到的配流结果的差异。(5)北京市私人小汽车使用的拥挤外部性费用和内部化效果分析。利用上述外部性费用的理论研究结论,进一步细分交通拥挤外部费用的内容,并提出相应的计算模型,同时根据实际计算的需要标定参数。依据北京市机动车出行的调查数据及相关统计资料,重点计算早高峰时段和全天范围内北京市私人小汽车使用的拥挤外部性费用中的平均时间价值损失值和燃油消耗增加值。进一步地,详细分析北京市私人小汽车使用的实际费用,确定影响交通拥挤外部性费用的可控性关键。同时,系统阐述北京市私人小汽车使用的外部费用内部化的相关政策与措施,重点基于北京市的停车需求管理规划和政策措施,利用上述内部化的研究结论,计算分区域差别化停车收费措施对于拥挤外部费用的内部化效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 The motorization and individualization of modern cities have made a close relation with economic development. The living quality of people in metropolitan areas has been improved as the increased travel volumes. However, the motorization also has a lot of disbenefit. The most serious one is that the increasing of vehicle travel disbalance the demand and supple of transport system. These reduce the transport efficiency in the modern cities and also destroy the fairy among transport modes.The theories studies and practice experiences of Transport Demand Management(TDM) indicate, that the direct relation between road traffic condition and Private-Car(PC) ownership depend on the use of PC, which can be controlled. The studies of TDM in China just step on it’s way, and still in the stage of paying equal attention on both the building and management. On the references of success experiences in developed countries, and on the real condition of China, there are a lot of researches done in China.On the base of principals and methods of microeconomics analyses on externality, this paper firstly estimates the external cost of PC using, secondly discusses the internalization measurements and corresponding outcomes of external cost, finally calculates the external cost of PC using in Beijing cites and analyses the internalization measurements and corresponding outcomes in Beijing. This paper has five parts as follow:(1) Introduce the theories and methods of externalities.This chapter introduces the models of externalities in the aspect of mathematics, explains the meaning of exterior economy and exterior diseconomy, presents six important theories, and discusses the absolute and relative measures of external cost.Furthermore, this chapter pays great attention on the microeconomic analysis method, takes some examples to expose the disadvantages of Pigou theories and Kos theorem when they explain the externalities, and contrasts the applicability of Pigou method and Kos method(2) Estimate the external cost of PC using in modern cities.This paper estimates the external cost of PC using in modern cities in four aspects, which are environment pollution, congestion, traffic accidents, and land-use.The environmental cost of PC using include air pollutions, noise pollutions and global warming impacts etc. The external cost of congestion is main about the time delayed, and also include the elements of pollution and traffic accidents. The external cost of traffic accidents have different methods to estimate on the base of different understanding of value of life. This chapter calculates the external cost of traffic accidents in Beijing, considering the value of life as the contribution of GDP in rest life of one person. Finally, the cooperation between Land-use and PC using are discussed.(3) Discuss the policies and measurements of the Internalization of External Cost (IEC).This chapter conforms three main principle of IOEC, indicates the total object of IEOC is to maximization the social benefits (social farewell)..So the user of PC should pay for the corresponding social cost, and the efficiency of economy and environmental system will be upgraded.Planning management and economic method are two main policies to internalize the external cost. This chapter mainly discusses the road-pricing policies, on the theoretical base of road congestion pricing and charging policies, analyses the peak-hour charging policies, points out the key problem when implement the road pricing measurements.(4) Analyze the effects of the IEC policies.This chapter firstly explains the externalities of transport system and the functions of IEC, and analyses the economic effects of IEC on three sceneries, on the base of marginal cost of PC using. Secondly, based on the microeconomics, the revenue effect and substitutive effect of PC using are analyzed and the conclusion, that implementing the IEC policies to PC user is benefit for the fare competition of traffic modes and the development of transit mode which has low social cost, is come to. Finally, according to the stochastic user equilibrium assignment theory, the writer builds the models estimating the effects of IEC and discusses the reasonable arithmetic. The writer uses a case to .analyses the traffic assignment difference before and after the congestion charging.(5) Calculate the congestion external cost and analyze the effect of IEC policies in Beijing.Using the conclusions of the studies above, this chapter specifies the content of congestion external cost, builds several calculating models, and calibrates the parameters. Based on the vehicle number, travel behavior and competitive investigation of transport system in Beijing, the congestion social cost of PC using are calculated.Furthermore, the real cost of PC using are analyzed and the controllable key points of traffic congestion are pointed out. The policies and measures of IEC in Beijing are specified, especially the parking demand management and planning. Finally, the writer calculates the effect of parking charging policy to the internalization of congestion external cost.更多还原