【作者】 陶存新；

【导师】 陈定方；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 机械设计及理论， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 交通安全、灾害防范是不同交通方式发展的先决条件。论文力图以交通复杂性较高、环境影响较为严重的道路危险品运输事故为代表,探索运输事故的规律和预警预防机理。随着我国化工产业的高速增长,在道路建设里程高速增长的同时,危险品运输量迅速提高,由此带来的危险品运输事故日益增多,造成诸多道路安全隐患。而危险品运输安全与否直接影响着道路运行的效率和沿线人民生活的品质。因此,我国目前非常重视危险品运输安全问题,不断增加道路危险品运输的安全投入,但是,巨额财政投入并不是一般大中城市都能获得的。在我国现行道路危险品运输安全管理方法普遍落后,造成了有限的资源未被充分利用的前提下,探索道路危险品运输预警应急指挥方法,从系统角度提高现有道路危险品运输安全管理水平具有重要的现实意义。论文以道路危险品运输事故为研究对象,从交通系统角度出发,通过实证调查,在社会综合管理意义上研究危险品运输事故的发生机理和发展规律,建立具有智能化技术的危险品运输预警应急指挥系统,研究交通事故的客观发生规律及其与交通正常状态的转化关系,提出保持危险品运输处于正常状态的“安全”机理。这对在复杂的交通环境下防止危险品运输事故或妥善处理运输事故具有直接操作价值,并且对构建道路危险品运输管理现代化的经营管理机制和提高现有安全管理水平具有现实意义。论文完成的主要工作与成果如下;论文在对危险品内涵进行科学界定的基础上,通过广泛查阅文献,从危险品运输、道路交通安全管理、预警理论、应急能力、道路安全评价等方面综述了国内外在危险品运输预警应急相关领域的研究现状与趋势;通过三个命题探讨了危险品运输预警应急指挥的理论基础;阐明了本课题研究的主要内容与方法,研究基本思路和研究的目的与意义。论文通过对我国道路危险品运输现状展开的调查总结,从人、车、路、管理几方面进行了危险品运输的风险分析,建立了基于经典风险理论和集值风险理论的评价模型,并展开了对危险品预警应急指挥系统的需求分析。论文从危险品运输安全的规律性入手,运用海因里希事故因果连锁模型建立了危险品运输事故致灾机理模型,运用突变理论分析了危险品运输事故的突变过程,根据危险品运输事故特性提出了基于安全的道路危险品运输系统动力学模型,并由此进行成因分析。论文提出了危险品运输预警应急指挥系统的总体框架,结合自组织理论建立了危险品运输应急系统持续性模型和协调性模型,并具体探讨了危险品运输预警应急指挥系统的处理流程。论文对危险品预警应急指挥系统的关键技术展开了研究。主要包括;危险品运输安全评价模型、危险品预警应急指挥的信息共享技术、基于交通信息融合的自动识别技术和危险品运输应急响应机制。论文在研究危险品运输预警应急指挥系统实现的关键技术基础上,提出了系统建设的具体建议。论文最后对全文进行了总结,并对今后的研究前景进行了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 Traffic safety and guarding against of disaster are the prerequisite for the development of different transportation method. This thesis selected the road transportation accidents of dangerous goods ,which complexity is higher and has serious environment influence ,as a representative, to explore the laws and the early-warning mechanism of transport accidents.Along with the high-speed growth of our country chemical engineering industry and the mileage of the road construction, the traffic volume of dangerous goods raises quickly. It brings more and more transportation accidents of dangerous goods,and results in many roads potential safety hazard. That the dangerous goods transportation is safe or not influences the road efficiency of the movement and living standards of the people along the road directly. Therefore, our country always pays attention on the safety problem of the dangerous goods transportation very much currently, and increases the safety input of the road dangerous goods transportation continuously. But, not all generic large and medium-sized cities can acquire the huge sum of public finance’s devotion. Under the premise that present management method of the transportation safety of road dangerous goods generally fall behind in our country, with the result that the limited resources didn’t be made full use, it has important realistic significance to explore the early-warning and emergency conduct methods of the road transportation of dangerous goods, and to raise the safety management level of the existing road dangerous goods’ transportation from the point of system.This text selected the road transportation accidents of dangerous goods as research object. It set out from the point of transportation system, putting out searching enquiries, studying the occurrence mechanism and development regulation of the road transportation accidents of dangerous goods for the significance of the society comprehensive management, to build up the early-warning and emergency conduct system of the road transportation of dangerous goods which has intelligent technique, to research objective occurrence regulation of traffic accident and the conversion relation between accidental state and normal appearance of transportation, and put forward the "safety" mechanism which keeps the transportation of dangerous goods to be placed in normal appearance. It has direct value of operation to prevent from the transportation accidents of dangerous goods or deal with transportation accidents properly under the complicated transportation environment, and it has important realistic significance to construct a modernization mechanism which manages the road transportation of dangerous goods and raise the existing level of safety management.The main work and result of this thesis are as follows:On the first part, it was carried up on the foundation of scientifically defining to the dangerous goods content, through checking literature extensively, providing an overview of the present study situation and trend which involve the related fields of early-warning and emergency aiming at dangerous goods transportation at home and abroad from several aspects such as the transportation of dangerous goods, traffic safety management, early-warning theories, emergency ability , road safety evaluation, and...etc.This part set question to investigate the theories foundation of early warning and emergency conduct aiming at dangerous goods transportation through three propositions;and clarified the main contents and methods of the project, basic thoughts and the purpose and meaning of the research.On the second part ,we investigated and summarized the present situation of road dangerous goods transportation in our conutry, carried on risk analysis of dangerous goods transportation from several aspects such as the pedestrians, car, road, management, built up an evaluation model which based on the classical risk theory and the set occurrence risk theory, and launched requirements analysis for the early-warning and emergency conduct system of the dangerous goods transportation.The third part began with the regularity of transportation safety of dangerous goods, It used model of Haiyinlixi to build up a model of inviting disaster mechanism aiming at transportation accidient of dangerous goods, and used catastrophe theory to analyze the mutation process of transportation accidient of dangerous goods. We put forward a system dynamics model of dangerous goods transportation which was based on safety according to the characteristic of transportation accidient of dangerous goods, and carried on an genetic analysis.On the forth part, it put forward an overall framework for the early-warning and emergency conduct system of the road transportation of dangerous goods,used selforganization theory to build up a continuity model and a coordination model of the emergency system of dangerous goods transportation, and concretely investigated the treatment process of early-warning and emergency conduct system of the road transportation of dangerous goods.On the fifth part,we developed a research to the gordian technique for early-warning and emergency conduct system of the dangerous goods. This research mainly included: safety evaluation model of the dangerous goods transportation, Sharing information technique of the early-warning and emergency conduct of dangerous goods transportation, Auto-identification technique based on traffic nformation fusion and emergency mechanism of dangerous goods transportation.On the basis of the fifth part, the sixth part studied the implement Countermeasures of the system.The last part of the thesis summarized for the full text, and predicted the prospects for the following researches.更多还原