特征价格法与上海住宅价格的决定机制研究

【作者】 郝前进；

【导师】 俞忠英；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 政治经济学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 随着1998年房地产业完成市场化改革,城市居民可以根据自己的偏好在城市内部自由选择居住区位,开发商也恢复提供商品住宅的积极性,中国住宅市场得到快速发展,迅速成为国民经济发展的重要支撑点,“住宅价格”、“区位选择问题”也成为政府、企业、居民讨论不断的话题。但实际数据显示,长三角城市间、上海城市内部不同区位间住宅价格具有很大的差异,最高值与最低值相差很大甚至超过10倍以上。此时,我们必须思考如下问题并给出合理的解释:什么是住宅价格空间差异的决定因素?怎样研究住宅价格的空间差异?国内外相关研究有哪些?住宅商品和普通商品相比有哪些特殊性?对住宅价格决定机制和住宅价格的地理空间差异的研究,经典城市经济学理论有十分精彩的理论分析和描述,但仅局限于城市形成及发展的理论层面分析,对城市土地价格、住宅价格空间形态分布始终没有找到很好的微观实证研究的支持。特征价格法(Hedonic Price Method)是国际上分析研究住宅价格微观决定机制的主流方法,在国外政府、产业界、科学研究中应用地十分广泛。国内由于缺乏官方公布的实际住宅成交数据的支撑,数据可靠性和样本的宽泛性难以得到保证,特征价格法的研究在国内刚刚起步。上海市房地产市场从2004年7月开始在网上房地产进行交易登记,为本文采用整个上海的实际住宅成交数据分析住宅价格空间差异的决定因素提供了很好的素材。本文把住宅价格的决定机制分为城市经济学的宏观视角和特征价格法的微观视角,一方面从理论上更加丰富了住宅价格空间差异的研究,也给理论研究找到了很好的数据支撑,很好的做到理论与实证的结合。上海住宅房地产市场1993年后的发展历程,可以分为4个阶段:1994～1997年的低市场化阶段、1998～1999年市场化改革后的徘徊和调整阶段、2000～2005年5月房地产市场快速发展阶段、2005年5月至今的适度回调阶段。本文研究发现:住宅所处地理位置的初始差异、企业属性的差异和政府公共物品投资的空间差异是形成上海城市内部住宅价格空间差异的主要原因,政府公共物品投资在住宅价格差异中占有很大的贡献。从细分市场分析,“外环外”和“外环内”购房者具有较大差异的偏好属性特征。对长三角住宅市场的进一步研究发现,需求差异,尤其是城市化率、人均可支配收入的差异是造成上海与浙江、江苏各个城市间住宅价格差异的主要原因。最后需说明的是,本文只是提供了分析住宅价格决定机制的一个方法论,且依赖于一系列的假设条件,故具体的数值不要过于追究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the real estate industry completed marketization reform in 1998, Chinese households can buy houses following their own preferences and housing developers have the innovation to produce housing commodity. Housing Industry has developed quickly and become major industry in GDP recent years in Shanghai. At the same time, the issue of "Housing price" and "Location Choice" turns into the main topic of government and the people. From housing data, we find that the housing prices in cities have great difference: the highest has even ten times of the lowest price. We must research and give the answer to such questions: What drives housing price? What determine housing price? What’s the reason for the Shanghai’s residential housing price increase by the supply and demand factor? It is the aim of my paper.Urban Economics theory gives the answer why housing prices have great difference in the view of theory, but which focus is explaining the origin and development of the city. Hedonic Price Method is the main instrument to empirically study the determination of housing price in the world and have been used in many regions by the government and the enterprise. Since the sixties of the 20^th century, the hedonic price theory and model has been widely adopted to study the real estates market abroad, and foreign scholars have carried out a large amount of experiential research. Up to now, because the setting-up of the hedonic price model needs to collect a large amount of data and carry on the extensive investigation, few researcher process experiential research to study the auantitative relation between the housing characteristic and housing price at home. The house transaction must put on records in the Shanghai’s Housing Trading Center since July 1, 2004, which gives the data for this paper’s study. This paper devides the literature about housing price’s determination into the macro-view of urban economics and micro-view of hedonic price method.This paper studies the development of Shanghai Residential Housing Market after 1993, which experienced four stages, low degree of marketization （1994-1997）, transition period after complete marketization reform （1998-1999）, booming market and rocketing housing price （2000-2005.5）, price drop and recovery （2005.5-present）. This paper reviews characteristics of each stage and reaches conclusion that the process goes with the gradual increase of housing commodity attributes and marketization degree.From the research, this paper finds that the locational difference/ original environment difference and the public investment’s spatial difference cause the difference of land prices’ difference under the competition of land developer, also cause the difference of urban housing prices under the competition of urban residenters. Urban public investment makes a great role in the development of Shanghai’s housing industry. The residential preference has great diversity in the housing submarket: "Inner Ring" and "Outer Ring". This paper also concludes that urban housing prices in the Yangtze River Delta are primarily determined by demand-side factors. The growth in the per Capita disposable income （or total income） of urban households and non-agriculture population proportion ratio are the major driving forces of demand for urban housings.At last, this paper just gives the way for studing the housing prices’ difference in city. We shouldn’t pay attention to real number for the housing attribute’s contribution but the positive or negative attribute.更多还原