【作者】 施莉；

【导师】 胡培；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 20世纪90年代中期以来，美国经济的高速增长，使经济学界开始重新关注美国良好的经济运行状况在多大程度上得益于其信息技术资本的积累。目前，已有众多的研究成果证明信息技术投入对美国经济增长产生了明显的推动。在随后以美国为研究参照的IT与经济发展关系的研究中，也有众多的研究成果证明IT生产与使用推动了发达国家的经济发展。20世纪80年代以来，中国GDP平均增长速度高达9.1％，与此同时，中国IT产业规模也不断扩大。到1999年，我国成为继美国和日本之后的第三大电子信息产品制造国。IT的生产与使用到底对我国经济增长产生了什么样的影响?IT对美日等发达国家经济发展的强劲推动是否可以从中国现实经济运行中观察到?这一系列问题的检验成为目前我国经济学界面临的重要问题。验证这些问题，对于我国借鉴国外经济增长经验，指导我国未来IT投资，进而促进经济健康发展，具有重要意义。然而，目前关于IT与我国经济发展方面的研究还处在经验描述阶段，缺少实证性的研究成果证明IT的生产与使用在多大程度上转化为了对我国经济增长与生产效率提升的推动。针对IT与我国经济发展方面研究的不足，本文采用增长核算模型，分别测算IT作为产出与生产投入要素，对我国GDP增长与生产效率提高的影响。本文的研究内容主要包括：1、我们对测算IT经济价值研究中两种常用模型(经济计量模型与增长核算模型)所需的具体量化测算数据类型及经济假设条件进行了详细地对比。通过对比，我们发现虽然国外研究多采用增长核算模型测量IT经济价值，但使用经济计量模型所需数据明显少于增长核算模型。鉴于数据的可得性是开展本文研究的难点，我们初步确定以经济计量模型为IT价值测算模型，并进行了实验性的测算。通过实验性测算，我们发现受样本数量多少及回归模型中样本观察值变动趋同性影响，回归估计参数极不稳定，表明之前有关中国IT经济价值研究中，采用的带时间趋势的简单回归方法得出的中国IT所产生的经济价值的结论可信度及可比度都较低。根据实验测算结论，我们确定以当前国际相关研究中通常采用的模型——增长核算模型作为完成本课题最终的量化测算模型。2、我们根据国外研究对IT的定义，确定了IT数据收集范围。然后，根据增长核算模型所需数据类型，确定了缺失数据类型的推导方案，并进行了详细的数据类型推导。推导的数据类型包括：IT价格指数、IT生产性资本存量估算以及IT使用者成本计算。首先，我们基于协调水平指数法，推导了我国各类IT投入价格指数，并通过产出价格与投入价格的关系，构建生产者期望函数，推导了我国各类IT产出价格指数。其次，根据OECD2001资本存量构造方法及Schreyer(2004)的研究，我们构造了我国二十多年大规模IT投资形成的生产性资本存量。除完成研究需要外，存量构造结果也有助于我们理解我国IT投资形成的生产潜力。最后，基于生产性资本存量与资本服务流量转换的相关研究，我们测算了我国各类IT资本服务流的使用者成本。基于推导的使用者成本，我们推导了基于协调指数的我国各类IT资本服务流物量增长指数，并将结论与国外同类研究进行了对比，以保证推导结论的可靠性。3、根据收集与推导的数据，我们首次基于增长核算模型估算了我国IT生产与投入在多大程度上转化为了经济的增长与生产效率的提高，为评价我国二十多年大规模IT生产与使用所产生的经济价值提供了新的经验证据。在测算IT生产与使用对我国经济生产效率改进影响的研究中，我们通过构建IT生产成本函数推导了各类IT的投入价格，然后通过投入与产出价格的相对变动，首次基于双推法，估算了各类IT生产与使用对我国经济生产效率提升的独立影响。4、我们将测算的最终结果与美国、日本的同类研究成果进行了对比。对IT推进的三国经济增长方式及生产效率提升方式的异同进行了分析。根据分析结果，我们对保持我国IT生产与使用对经济发展的推动力提出建议。通过量化80年代以来大规模IT生产与投入对我国经济发展的影响，本文为评价我国二十多年大规模IT投入所产生的经济价值提供了具体的量化指标。除以国际通行的模型检验了我国大规模IT生产与使用产生的经济价值外，本文的研究也从一定程度上证实了在经济欠发达国家，IT仍然是推动经济繁荣的有力工具。通过研究，我们得到了如下结论：20世纪80年代以来，IT的生产与使用对我国经济增长与生产效率提高产生了明显的推动作用。随着我国IT业规模的扩大及IT投资的持续增加，这种推动作用进一步加强；与发达国家相比，我国各类IT对经济发展的拉动明显倚重计算机硬件部分，软件生产与投入对经济拉动力不足。此外，90年代中期以来，虽然我国生产效率增长速度大幅减缓，但IT对生产效率提高的贡献仍持续增加。更多还原

【Abstract】 The performance of the U.S. economy surged in the second half of the 1990s, which inspired the long-running debate again in economic literature on whether information technology (IT) revolution is being paid off the economic growth. Many researches have shown that IT has been the key factor behind the improved productivity in U.S. economy. Researches also indicate that IT return is significant and positive in other developed nations.The performance of China’s economy has been remarkable since 1980. From 1980 through 2003, real gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annual rate of 9.10 percent, companied by the expending of IT industry. From 1999, China has been the third nation in term of electronic and information products manufacturing, following US and Japan. Has China’s economy reaped in IT investment? Can the phenomenon also be observed in China that economy has been benefited from IT in developed nations, such as U.S. and Japan? The questions mentioned above are important issues which economists in China nowadays have to face up with. Through examining the questions above, we can take advantage of growth experiences in developed nations. Thus, guided by experiences of other countries, China’s economy can develop more healthily in the future. However, at present, there has been scarce empirical research on interpreting China’s economic growth from a perspective emphasizing IT as a factor.As it is scarce that the research about growth contribution devoted to IT in China, we adopted the growth accounting model(GAM) to estimate the impact on China’s economy from IT manufacturing and IT investment in production process. Main contents of the paper are as follows:1. Through comparing the differences between econometrics model (EM) and growth accounting model (GAM), we analyzed hypotheses and the needed-data of the two models. We found, in the research of estimation IT contribution, that data needed by EM are much less than the data needed by GAM. Then, we chose EM to go on our research because of data availability in China. During our experimental test, we found that the regression results are disturbed badly by sample quantity and collinearity among independent variables. Our findings suggest that simply regression methods are not suitable to measure IT economic value. Based on findings above, we chose GAM as measure model followed foreign researches at last.2. We confirmed basic research data framework according to the IT definition from U.S. research. Furthermore, to those kinds of data which have not been published by government at present, we made certain data deduce models based on correlative literatures. The data we deduced in our research including IT price index, IT productive capital stock and IT user cost. First, we constructed IT price index based on harmonized deflator, which has not been investigate in China before. By investigating the relationship between IT investment price and IT output price, we deduced IT output price index through producer production function. Second, we estimated IT productive capital stock deriving from IT investment more than two decades in China. The results attribute to our understanding about the IT potential productive capability in China. At last, based on discussion about productive capital stock and its translation to capital service flow, we calculated the user cost of IT capital service flow. Furthermore, based on user cost calculated above, we measured physical index of IT capital stock flow. To ensure the reliability of our results about IT user cost in China, we compared our estimation with those of foreign researchers’.3. According to the data collected and deduced above, we estimated the degree that how much of IT manufacturing and its use in production has been translated into the force to economic growth and productivity improvement in China. Based on GAM, this result put forward an empirical proof for estimating IT economic value in China, which has not been investigated before. During the research on productivity improvement from the use of IT, we estimated the independent impact of software, communication equipment and hardware through the relative price of input and output.4. We compared our estimation to that of U.S. and Japan. By this way, we analyzed the growth methods and productivity improvement among the three countries. Suggestions to IT development and investment at country level are also provided.The contribution of our research is that we put forward the concrete criterion to evaluate IT economic value from large scale of IT investment for more than twenty years in China. Another contribution of our paper is that we offer a proof that economy development can be benefited from information technology, even in developing country. Through empirical research on how much of the boost to economic growth and to productivity improvement can be attributed to IT investment, we find that: IT has played an important role in China’s productivity growth since 1980. This rapid advance has been stronger in recent years, accompanied by the expansion of IT industry and continued increase of IT investment in China. When compared with developed countries, China’s economic growth has been relying heavily on hardware. Contribution to China’s economic growth from software lagged far behind developed nations. Furthermore, despite of productivity growth has been slower since the second of 1990 in China, IT has also impelled productivity improvement continuously.更多还原