【作者】 钟钰；

【导师】 李岳云；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 WTO多边贸易谈判的最终目标是推动贸易自由化，农业议题是其中的焦点和难点。乌拉圭回合《农业协定》首次将农业问题真正纳入多边贸易体制，促进了国际农产品贸易的发展。WTO新一轮多边贸易谈判已于2000年底启动，WTO各成员方围绕《农业协定》的主要内容继续展开艰苦卓绝的谈判。由于农业谈判分歧较大，整体进展缓慢，已不可能按照预定的时间表于2005年前结束。农业谈判的关键问题之一是市场准入，主要涉及各成员如何继续降低农产品进口关税。关税减让是贸易自由化的必然结果，是农产品市场准入的主要组成部分，也是世贸组织农业谈判的重要内容。农产品关税减让直接和间接地影响了进口国的市场价格、生产者利益、消费者福利和政府关税收入，使进口国对国内农产品的保护水平降低，从而对进口国农产品市场产生一定冲击。中国作为世贸组织的新成员国，农业贸易政策要遵循世贸组织规则，农产品关税已按照《农业协定》中所规定的要求进行减让。新一轮农业谈判中，关税如何进一步改革仍然是各国关注的焦点，各成员方都充分利用参与制定贸易规则的权利，积极提交谈判提案、表明立场和主张，对关税如何减让提出各自的观点，这些观点在农产品关税减让的模式选择方面有着很大的分歧。本文旨在分析关税减让政策对中国农业的影响，对中国参与农业多边贸易谈判、推动农产品关税政策改革、促进农业发展提出政策建议。首先介绍研究的问题、基本概念、相关理论分析框架及研究对象的背景；其次在全面分析中国农产品关税状况、发展趋势以及进口贸易结构的基础上，根据关税内生化理论建立关税方程，分析进口和关税之间的相互关系；然后运用局部均衡理论探索关税政策改革的经济影响，并借助农业贸易政策模拟模型定量分析关税减让的结果；比较和借鉴WTO主要成员方农产品关税管理体制的先进经验和运作模式，最后在全文结论的基础上，对中国农产品关税政策提供相关建议。本文研究的主要内容和结论陈述如下：1．根据非从价税转换原则、关税配额的实际情况，利用加权算术平均法和简单算术平均法对中国农产品关税进行测算。总体上看，中国农产品关税水平逐渐降低。关税结构变化不仅仅表现为税率下降，还体现在更多的农产品实行了较低关税和农产品关税高峰的减让。但关税结构并没有发生明显的变动，关税离散系数始终保持在0.6左右，表明中国关税税目档次过多和商品间税率的差别较大。2．中国农产品进口增长非常快，年均增长率为15.03％，从离散系数的对比来看，农产品进口离散系数最高，反映了中国农产品进口的大幅度波动；用趋势分解法对中国农产品进口额进行时间趋势拟合，发现农产品进口波动频率高，但存在比较固定的有规则的周期。同时，农产品进口的产品结构，反映了其遵循中国农业要素禀赋结构的倾向，且这种趋势正进一步得到加强。3．对中国农产品关税扣进口的关系进行理论研究和计量分析，建立农产品进口单方程，利用面板数据估计得到关税弹性参数；根据关税内生化理论建立关税方程，并探讨影响关税的其他因素。农产品进口和关税通过内生性检验，其结果证明他们具有内生性，改变了以往研究中关税常常外生的假定，即关税由政府主观决定。联立方程结果表明进口内生于关税水平、GDP、汇率和国内外市场价格差，关税内生于进口、财政支农、劳动生产率、贸易竞争指数、农业占国民经济比重、农业劳动力比重、农户家庭非农收入比重以及农业劳动力人均资本密集度。4．乌拉圭回合推动了农业贸易自由化的发展，但国际农业政策改革是不彻底的。新一轮国际农业政策改革启动后，主要成员方提出多种减让提案。从中国的关税结构特征中得到的另外一个重要启示是：波段跨度越大的提案，对中国越有利。运用农业政策模拟模型对多哈回合农业谈判中的主要关税减让提案的影响进行了定量分析，模型模拟结果显示，多哈回合农业谈判对推动农业贸易自由化发展具有重要影响。关税政策进一步改革对中国福利的影响不显著，按照美国提案，中国福利增加7.2亿美元；按照欧盟提案，中国的福利损失6.7亿美元；按照G20提案，中国福利增加2.4亿美元。就总福利而言，美国提案有利于中国。按照美国提案，中国的福利增加主要来自消费者剩余的增加，而中国政府关税收入减少和生产者收入下降；按照G20提案和欧盟提案，中国的生产者福利增加，当前中国政府密切关注农民增收问题的背景下，G20提案更适合中国。最后，在前文所作分析的基础上，并结合其他成员农产品关税管理体制，提出中国调整农产品关税政策的相关建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The ultimate goal of WTO multilateral negotiation is to enhance the trade liberalization, with the agriculture issue being the focus and the difficulty. For the first time, Uruguay round Agreement on Agriculture does bring agriculture trade into multilateral trade system rules, as well as promoting the development of international agricultural products trade. Since WTO’s new round of multilateral negotiation started up at the end of 2000, agriculture remains the center of gravity and around the main idea of the Agreement on Agriculture, members of WTO have been continuing the arduous talks. Due to clear diverges in agricultural negotiation, the process of which was too slow to end up in 2005 as outlined in previous timetable. One key of the negotiation is the market access, which mainly touches upon how WTO members continue to make tariff concession to agricultural products import. Agricultural products trade liberalization necessarily results in Tariff Concession, which is the main part of agricultural products market admittance, and is important to WTO negotiation on agriculture as well. Direct or indirect, Tariff Concession to agricultural products nevertheless influences the market price of the importing countries, the interest of producers, well-being of customer and government’s tariff revenue. Meanwhile, tariff concession owes to the domestic lowered protection level of the importing countries, therefore imposes certain impact on importing countries’ agricultural products market. As a new member of WTO, China’s policy on agricultural trade must obey WTO’s rules, and its agricultural products tariff had made concession according to the mode stated in Agreement on Agriculture. During the new round of negotiation on agriculture, the issue on how tariff concession operates remains arousing all parts’ attention. Each member has its own right to engage in developing the trade laws, so they put forward their overtures, with great enthusiasm, make clear positions and claims, and propose respective viewpoints. But there are clear diverges in mode choices.The paper aims to analysis influence of tariff concession to Chinese agriculture. Firstly, the research issue, the basic conception, the correlative theories, the framework of theoretic analysis and the background of research objects are introduced. Secondly, theory on endogenous tariff this paper establishes tariff equations on the basis of description to tariff and import, analysis interrelations between imports and tariff. Using the local equilibrium theory, the paper explores the economic influence caused by tariff concession to agricultural products; and quantitatively analyses the impact from the tariff concession policies on China’s agriculture in virtue of the agricultural trade policy model. The advanced experiences and management models of other WTO members are compared and used for reference, and thus puts forward reasonable suggestions on adjustment in agricultural products tariff policies. Main contents and conclusions of the study are listed as follows:1. According to the non-ad valorem duties conversion principles as well as the real situation of tariff quota, it estimates China’s agricultural products tariff through weight arithmetic average and simple arithmetic average. As a whole, for china’s agricultural products tariff, it tends to drop step by step. The changes in tariff’s structure not only show the decline in rate, but show more agricultural products carry on lower tariff and the concession to agricultural products tariff peak. Otherwise, the dispersion coefficient keeping around 0.6, there is no distinct changes in tariff structure, which indicates that too many tax items in China and existing clear diverges in tax rate between goods.2. The number of imported agricultural products in China kept good momentum, with 15.03% growth rate per year. Among all discrete coefficients, agricultural products’ is the highest, which otherwise serves as a foil to the great fluctuation of the imported agricultural product of china. The paper uses trend decomposition method to combine China’s agricultural products import amount with time and trend, and finds that even if the importation of the primacy products is in high frequency, where exists fixed and well-regulated cycle. At the same time the products structure of the importation of agricultural products in China shows its tendency to follow the structure of factor endowment of China’s agriculture, and the trend is being strengthened further.3. Theoretical research and metrical analysis on the relationship between China agricultural products tariff and import. Establishing agricultural products import bill equation, estimating and obtaining the tariff elastic parameters by using panel data; establishing tariff equation according to tariff endogenous theory, and discussing other factors influencing tariff. Endogenous test of agricultural products import and tariff, and the result testified the endogenity. The presumption that tariff is usually exogenous and determined by the government subjectively has been changed. The result of group equation indicates that import inherently depends on tariff, GDP, the rate of exchange, price difference between domestic and international market; and that tariff inherently depends on import, financial support to agriculture, agricultural labor productivity, index of trade competition, the proportion of agriculture in national economy, the share of agriculture labor in whole labors, the proportion of non-agriculture income in household, and everyone capital density.4. The Uruguay round promoted the development of agricultural trade liberalization, however, agricultural policy reform was not thorough. After starting up a new round international agricultural policy reform, main member nations proposed actively many resolution of concession. Another important indication from China’s tariff structural character is that: the wider a proposal spans, the more advantages China will gain. Using agricultural policy simulating model to conduct metrical analysis on the influence of agricultural tariff concession resolution during Uruguay round of negotiation on agriculture. The result of ATPSM simulating model indicates that Doha round of negotiation on agriculture imposed great influence on promoting the development of agricultural trade liberalization, as well as China’s agriculture. Further reform on tariff policy does not have a clear influence on China’s well-being. According to the US proposal, China’s well-being will increase 720 million US dollars; according to the EU proposal, China’s well-being will decrease 670 million US dollars; according to the G20 proposal, China’s well-being will increase 240 million US dollars. As for the overall benefits, the US proposal is favorable to China. According to the US proposal, the increase of China’s well-being is due to the surplus increase of customers, and China’s government revenue (tariff revenue decreases) and workers’ well-being decrease (which means workers’ income probably decrease). According to the G20 proposal and the EU proposal, China workers’ well-being will increase. Under the circumstances that our government pays a close attention to increasing income of farmer issue, our considerations about the effects of global agricultural reform may focus on workers’ surplus; thus, the G20 proposal may be favorable to China.Finally, based on the conclusions of the whole paper, the paper puts forward the policy suggestions to adjust agricultural products tariff policies referencing management models of other members of WTO.更多还原