【作者】 金荣学；

【导师】 张培刚； 宋德勇；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 西方经济学， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,国家实施梯度发展战略,中国省际经济增长差距呈不断扩大的趋势,同一区域的省际之间经济差距也十分显著。本文通过借鉴新古典等增长模型,建立省级经济增长模型并对模型进行了验证分析,得出了省级经济增长差异发散的结论。平衡增长路径的发散导致了省级区域经济增长的发散,教育投入、经济体制改革、经济结构的调整是省级经济收敛的根本途径,城乡差距的扩大是省级经济增长发散的一种表现,省级经济增长具有相对较快的条件收敛速度。影响省级经济差异的重要原因包括要素差异、国家制度及区域政策差异。我国地域辽阔,省际之间资本、人口、技术、自然资源、地理位置等要素差异明显,特别是技术进步,在东部沿海省份的贡献度很高。市场化、工业化、城市化、对外开放、产业结构差异也十分显著,国家政策的差别是各省市增长率不同的重要因素。对于发达地区和相对落后地区,不同因素对增长的影响程度有着很大的差异,落后地区要加快增长速度,必须加快市场化、工业化、城市化进程。省际间的协调发展应以产业结构调整为基础,以市场机制为主导,企业为主体。资本是区域经济增长的直接推动力。资本省际之间的变化是引致省际经济增长和省际经济差异变化的重要因素之一。资本对省际经济增长的影响是多方面的。资本总量、资本构成和资金空间流动对省际经济差异变化影响明显。人口是影响省际经济增长的又一重要因素。人口从消费与生产两个方面对经济增长产生影响,人口数量增长、人口素质、脑力劳动力、就业和人口迁移对省际经济差异产生影响。我国科学技术资源分布极不平衡,东部省市的综合科技发展指数明显高于中西部地区,9个少数民族省区都属于低的科技发展水平地区。省际之间的自然资源禀赋状况不同,制约了各省的经济活动或产业的类型及效率,进而影响到它们之间的区际分工格局以及各自在区际分工中的地位和利益分配的多寡。在转型经济条件下,由内生的要素构成差异决定的省际经济增长差异因为转型经济下外生的制度变量影响而加剧。因此,从制度环境和制度影响的角度研究省际经济增长差异的决定因素具有了现实的意义。中国城市化的发展水平总的来看是东部省市最高,中部次之,西部最低。通过实证分析得知,从70年代末到80年代末,中国省际经济的绝对差异与相对差异的变化方向相反,绝对差异在不断扩大,相对差异在不断缩小。相对差异于80年代初和80年代末出现了两次幅度相对较大的缩小过程;绝对差异在80年代初出现一次小幅度的缩小过程,在80年代末扩大速度大大变小。进入90年代,中国省际经济的绝对差异和相对差异都呈加速扩大趋势。而且,绝对差异的扩大速度比相对差异的扩大速度大。中国省际经济绝对差异在1978-1990年期间不断扩大,特别是在进入90年代后呈加速扩大趋势,在空间上主要表现为经济基础好的上海、北京、天津、辽宁、黑龙江和经济发展速度很快的江苏、浙江、广东、山东、福建等省市与其他省区,特别是贵州、云南、四川、甘肃、宁夏、陕西、安徽、江西、湖南等省区的绝对差异在不断扩大。其中,浙江、广东、山东、福建等省的经济发展与上海、北京、天津、辽宁、黑龙江、江苏等省市的绝对差异在不断缩小,而与其他省区的经济绝对差异在不断扩大。山西、吉林、湖北、西藏、新疆五省在80年代与这10个省市的绝对差异缩小,但其后又开始扩大。尽快缩小省际经济差距,协调省际经济发展势在必行。在省际经济协调发展过程中,依靠中央政府力量,实现省际产业结构合理化,通过产业发展与竞争,促进省际之间产业协调发展。加强中央政府对地方政府的协调作用,建立全国统一完善的大市场是实现省际经济协调发展的重要保障。加速推进西部大开发和振兴东北战略计划、尽快落实中部崛起战略计划是缩小省际差距的重要途径。本论文主要创新是应用经济增长的因素分解方法对省级的增长进行分析,用大量的统计数据对不同省、市、自治区经济增长进行横断面的统计分析,在研究对象、研究方法、研究内容上都有所创新。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening-up, gap of the economic growth of different provinces of China becomes wider and wider as a result of carrying out the gradient-development stratagy. The gap is also remarkable in different provinces of the same region. Provincial economic growth model is built based on the new classical and Harrod-Domar’s growth model. Some conclusions about provincial economic growth are given through positive analysis of the model. The divergence of balanced growth path results in the divergence of provincial regional economy. Educational input, economy institutional reform and economy structure adjustment are the main approach to the convergence of provincial economy. The scale-up of the gap between urban area and rural area is also a representation of the divergence that mentioned above. The growth of provincial economy has a relatively high conditional convergent speed.The main factors that influence the discrepancy of provincial economy include element discrepancy, institutional and policy discrepancy. Since our country has a large territory, there are distinctions in capital, population, technology, resource endowment and geographic position in different provinces. Especially, the technology advancement contributes a lot to littoral provinces in east of China. The level of marketization, industrialization, urbanization, opening up and industrial structure are also greatly diverse. The difference of political support is also an important factor that causes the discrepancy of the growth rate of provinces. The influence of different factor differs a lot in the developing area and developed area. To have a higher growth speed, the developing area ought to quicken the course of marketization, industrialization, opening up and urbanization. The harmonious development among provinces must be based on the adjustment of industrial structure, taking market mechanism as dominant and making enterprises the main body of this course.Capital is the main impetus to regional economic growth. Change in the capital stock is one of the key factors which cause the regional growth and discrepancy. Capital stock, capital structure and capital flow have a remarkable influence to regional discrepancy. Population is another key factor, which influences the economic growth in two aspects. One aspect is consumption and the other is production. The growth of population, population quality, employment and population immigration also influence the provincial discrepancy. The distribution of science and technology resource in our country is greatly unbalanced. East provinces have obvious much more advantages in synthetical science &technology development index than central and west provinces. The discrepancy of resource endowment restricts the style and efficiency in different region and influences the division and interest distribution among them.Under the situation of transition economy, provincial growth discrepancy, which is determined by the difference on endogenous factor composing among provinces, is getting bigger under the influence of exogenous institutional variable. So, it is necessary and also important for us to study the key factor that determines the discrepancy of provincial growth.Some conclusions can be given after positive analysis. From late 1970s to late 1980s, the absolute discrepancy and relative discrepancy of China’s regional economy change in opposite direction. The absolute discrepancy increased while the relative discrepancy has a contrary tendency. There are two remarkable degressive courses in relative discrepancy in early and late 1980s. In early 1980s, there existed a slight degressive course in absolute discrepancy. In late 1980s, the expanding speed of discrepancy was sharply decreased. Since 90s, both absolute and relative discrepancy had an accelerated expanding trend, moreover, absolute discrepancy expanded faster than relative discrepancy.Absolute discrepancy of China’s regional economy expanded continuously during the period from 1978 to 1990. After 1990s, some developed province such as Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang, along with some fast developing provinces like Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Fujian got a wider gap with other provinces, especially with some central and west province, such as Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan, Gansu, Ningxia, Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi and Hunan. The absolute discrepancy among Zhejiang, Guangdong, Shandong, Fujian and Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu is shrinking. However, this kind of discrepancy has the opposite tendency among other provinces. In 1980s, five provinces including Shanxi, Hubei, Jilin, Xizang, and Xinjiang were getting less discrepancy with the 10 provinces mentioned above. However, this tendency got reversed after 1980s.To reduce the provincial discrepancy, the harmonization of provincial economy development is of great significance. We need to make good use of governmental force, optimize the provincial industrial structure and promote the development of provincial industries; strengthen the collaboration between central government and local government. That building a uniform national market is also necessary for harmonious development. More importantly, accelerating the stratagem of west exploration, revitalizing the old industrial base of the northeast, quickening the prosperity of the Central Region are three key ways to reduce provincial discrepancy.更多还原