【作者】 徐怀礼；

【导师】 宋冬林；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 政治经济学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 作为一个重要的社会经济问题,灾害影响到一个国家或地区的经济增长质量与发展的可持续性,同时,又关系到贫困、公平、收入差距等问题。因此,灾害经济学研究具有重要的实践意义和理论意义。本文从政治经济学的角度,以灾害的社会经济属性为分析对象,深入分析了灾害现象的经济学内涵,构建了较为完整的灾害经济分析框架,对灾害经济现象进行了系统而较为深入的分析。首先是灾害经济学相关理论文献评述,为下文的分析提供理论基础;其次,通过对马克思主义经典作家灾害经济思想的深入挖掘,认为灾害根源于人与自然之间物质变换循环裂缝,具有自然生态与社会经济的双重属性,灾害的本质属性在于其社会经济属性。之后,对灾害经济影响过程进行了理论分析与定量分析,并重点就灾害对我国可持续发展的影响进行了分析。再次,通过引入灾害易损性的概念将灾害自然属性与社会属性有机结合起来,用于对灾害经济运行规律与特征的分析;最后就我国现阶段灾害经济的易损性特征进行了定量评估和计量检验,表明在我国现阶段将维持较高的灾害经济易损性特征,灾害影响正在日益成为一个重要的发展问题。为此,我们应以科学发展观为指导,将灾害问题纳入到可持续发展框架中,从人与自然、经济社会与人全面协调可持续发展的角度深化灾害经济问题研究,以可持续发展思想指导灾害治理工作,从而实现灾害经济影响的最小化。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a important socioeconomic problems, disaster affects the quality of economic growth and the sustainability of development of a country or region; Meanwhile, disaster also concerns some issues including poverty, equity and income gap with distinctive characteristic of policy and economy. Therefore, the research on disaster economics possesses profound theoretical and practical significance.IIn western economics theories, great importance has not been continuously attached to the problem of disaster or it can be said that the problem isn’t integrated into mainstream framework of economics research. Although classical economics mainly concerning research on how to increase national wealth mentioned the limitation of growth of population and economy and scare resources relatively but just as subordinated factor of distribution and increase of wealth. Since neo-classical economics mainly makes research on distribution of scare resource and the tendency of using mathematical models more and more, it keeps the factors of disaster and environment out of the research of mainstream economics. Since western economics theories have considered the factor of environment resource as external variables of economic development, they don’t pay attentions to industrial nuisances related to environment including disaster loss and pollution. Currently, western research on the problem of disaster has the tendency of emphasizing quantitative research on the effect of disaster mainly including measuring inspection of disaster and economic growth, the model and demonstration of the effect of disaster on economy and the effect of disaster on economic system. Taken together, western research on disaster from the aspect of economy show the direction of consciousness, namely, most of these research concerns the analysis of single problem or case without general basic principle and law and complete, deep and professional research output is few. Chinese research on disaster economics starts early relative to foreign to research, but it develops slowly and the whole level isn’t high. Researchers mainly graduates from natural and historical sciences including geography, geology hydrology, have few complete and deep research and their abilities of defining essential conception, theoretic backing and system should be intensified, who apply foreign documents into the research on Chinese research on disaster after appropriate regulation but they all don’t have strong support of basic theory and general suggestions and measures.IIIn discussion on the issues related to environment and disaster of K. Marx and F. Engels during the process of disclosing capitalist mode of production provides stable theoretic backing and the analytical method in Political Economy. K. Marx believed that issues related to environment or disaster aren’t natural phenomenon only but the product if society and results of history development; moreover, he analyzed the issues related to disaster from the aspect of the relationship between human and nature and established this on the theory of material alternation and cycle. Labor is the process in which human regulate and control material alternation between human and nature, and the relationship between human and nature is material alternation in nature. Double properties of labor determine that material alternation possesses not only natural and ecological regulation, but also social and historical regulation. K. Marx contributed the phenomenon of disaster capitalist society into disturbance and interruption of material alternation mentioned above and summarized this as crack of material alternation wonderfully. Double properties of material alternation and cycle determines circle of double properties of disaster, namely, their double properties concerning natural ecology and economy. K. Marx believed that the ultimate cause of issues related to public nuisance and environment is dissimilation between human and nature which results from the dissimilation between humans; meanwhile he analyzed general causes of disaster surpassing social and economic scope including level of knowledge and objectivity of rule. The ultimate purpose of solving the issues related to environment or disaster is realization of complete compromise between human and nature and its ultimate method is realization of complete compromise between people.IIIKarl Marx believed that the essential property of disaster is its social and economic property and its process of generation isn’t natural one. Disaster originates from the crack between human and material alternation and cycle in human’s practice of labor; in different social modes of production and economic system, people form different social and economic relationship in process of labor, which shows concrete form of society. Therefore, modes of production and economic system of human society determines the property and characteristic of material alternation and cycle between people as well as affect the shape and frequency of disaster and its effect on society and economy. Meanwhile, different concrete manners of allocation of resources and economic system, unreasonable economic behavior of human, traditional manner of economic growth affect harmony between human and nature in economic actions and lead to resource damage and environmental pollution, etc. Facts have proved that the uncoordinated interests of individual and part harmony in common basic interests is also important factor leading to incongruous relationship between human and nature, which is the reason why the issues related to disaster and environment in the socialist stage, certainly some impersonal factors including natural principle of disaster and principle of cognition are also its reasons. China is the country possessing most categories of disaster and bearing its most negative effects since disaster of China possesses the characteristics of many categories, high frequency, large scope, deep degree; moreover, the occurrence of disaster possesses the characteristics of centrality in time and collection in space since it’s influenced by geographic position, distribution of climatic zone and topography, etc. Moreover, complex natural and geographical conditions and weak environment are reasons for frequent disaster in China, but social and economic factors including rough manner of economic growth, industrial structure emphasizing industry, urbanization and industrialization surpassing the ecological bearing capacity are radical reasons. Finally, the writer reveals the causeS, quality and characteristic of natural disaster in specific stage of China by analyzing representative example of disaster in the switching process of cities with resource exhaustion.IVThe effect of disaster on economy depends on its socioeconomic property and natural property. Deep analysis of the process of the effect of disaster on economy helps us a great deal in understanding the process of disaster economy deeply, mastering its operating rule and understanding the characteristic and rule of disaster economy of China. Therefore, the writer deeply analyzes process of the effect of disaster on economy from aspects of static plus dynamic and theory plus demonstration. Firstly, as for the static aspect, the writer introduces a optimization model concerning trans-period consumers and believes that consumers’best saving level depends on disaster risk they faces, namely, consumers’best saving level is equal to half of consumers’loss. Secondly, the writer analyzes industrial wave of effect of disaster and process of effect by virtue of input and output table and gets Matrix formulas concerning coefficient of input and output of disaster loss including direct loss and indirect loss from two levels of total input and total out separately. Finally, the writer gains the model of effect of disaster on economy basing on improved form of Harrod-Domar and carries out simulated calculation concerning economic growth rate without disaster and absolute value of economic growth by using the statistical data from 1998 to 2002, the five years totally. Moreover, the writer analyzes the effect of disaster on state of sustainable development of China and believes that disaster is bringing formidable challenges to Chinese traditional economic growth, unreasonable industrial structure and the structure of energy output and consumption. Especially under the background of global warming, reducing greenhouse-gas emissions has faced more and more international pressure, which will influence the concept of sustainable development of society and economy of China, performance of strategy of China and development manner of China. Based on the analysis above, we know that the effect of disaster on economy is not only the natural process but also the process of social economy, which depends on the properties of nature and social and economic properties of disaster. The economic vulnerability of disaster leads to possibility of social and economic loss, or it social and economic system is sensitive to the effect of disaster as carrier, which organicly combines double properties and rule; moreover, combining double properties and principle is pertinent in understanding the occurrence of disaster and the process of its effect on economy. The factors of vulnerability include physical geography conditions, the category and characteristic of disaster, social and economic structure, technology and policy, income and poverty, etc; moreover, vulnerability will show the changing rule of reverse with the social and economic development. According to appraisal in advance and afterwards, vulnerability can be divided into risk exposure in advance and ability of handling afterwards and it falls on the improvement of social adaptation of disaster. In appraisal of economic vulnerability of disaster of China, they analyze the social and economic factors affect the risk distribution of disaster including population distribution, income gap, economic and geographical distribution. Some factors increase the risk exposure of social and economic system facing disaster and decrease the ability of national economy of coping with disaster including large population and disproportion, local pressure of population surpassing their ecological bearing capacity, low average per capita income, vulnerable groups with low income and difference of income between regions and industries. As for demonstration, we appraised the abilities of coping with disaster in 31 provinces of China, which shows that the distribution of vulnerability has the tendency of gradually descending from south-eastern seaboard of China to middle, northwest and southwest regions, which accords with regional distribution of Chinese economic development and the distribution characteristic of industry accumulation zones. Among the factors affect the ability of handling index, economic factors have more important functions than physical geography and entironmental ones. Finally, we calculated the target of vulnerability of each province and believed that the ability of coping with disaster determines the degree of vulnerability (sensibility) with positive relativity between them; Moreover, we validate it by virtue of the results of measuring inspection.VThe effect of disaster on Chinese economy not only shows the characteristic of disaster economy of developing countries, namely, their natural disaster has the characteristics of many categories, high frequency, large intensity, huge loss, and weak ability of dealing with disaster which results in the characteristic of easy to be damaged of higher disaster, but also shows that it is necessary to solve the problem confronted developed countries of how to bring the factor of disaster into the framework of socioeconomic sustainable development. And this requires us to reform traditional pattern of prevention and cure, solve the effect of disaster on economy from the aspects of the relationship between human and nature, views of development, the manner of economy development, and to establish the sustainable manner regulating disaster by virtue of the notion of sustainable development Disaster treatment not only should take traditional manner of curing and policy and measures as base for eliminating the negative effect of disaster on economy, but also should take the scientific concept of development as direction for realizing sustainable disaster treatment from the point of view of complete coordinated and sustained development of economy, society and human and bring the economic problem of disaster into the strategy of sustainable development and becomes an important part for solving the problem of restriction of the negative effect of disaster on sustainable development of economy and society.更多还原