【作者】 殷菲；

【导师】 李晓松；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 流行病与卫生统计学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 目的传染病聚集性的早期发现是有效控制传染病爆发与流行、降低传染病发病率和死亡率的重要措施。但目前我国用于传染病聚集性探测的方法仅限于单纯的时间聚集性探测方法，不能充分利用数据信息，影响了聚集性探测的及时性和有效性。本研究旨在探讨时空扫描统计量这一先进的统计技术在传染病聚集性探测以及早期预警中的应用价值。方法模拟实时监测系统，采用时空扫描统计量建立模型，对我国2005年麻疹病例数据进行逐日前瞻性分析，并分别以省、区县和乡镇街道作为基本地理单位建立预警模型，在此基础上，探讨了探测结果三维可视化实现的途径和方法。结果全国省级分析结果显示：前瞻性时-空扫描统计量可提供确切的预警信息，对麻疹聚集性进行时间和空间定位；上海市、江苏省和浙江省的区县级分析结果显示：前瞻性时-空扫描统计量能及时探测到开始于某省局部县区和三省交界区县的麻疹聚集性。成都市乡镇街道级分析结果显示：在缺乏人口数据的情况下，前瞻性时-空重排扫描统计量仍能有效进行预警，且较前瞻性时间扫描统计量能更早探测到麻疹聚集性。结论时空扫描统计量能够充分挖掘和利用传染病监测数据中的时间和空间信息，提高聚集性探测的及时性和有效性，能够在各级行政区划早期探测到传染病在时空两个维度的聚集性。利用前瞻性时-空扫描统计量模型结合地理信息软件建立的早期预警系统，能够有效地做出早期预警。时空扫描统计量在实际工作中具有潜在的重要应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective: The ability to detect infectious disease outbreaks early is important in order to minimize mobility and mortality through timely implementation of disease prevention and control measures. However, most analytical methods in use for early detection are purely temporal and have their defects in nature. In this paper, space-time scan statistic, which accounts for both temporal and spatial components of data, was used to detect infectious disease outbreaks early.Method: The models based on the space-time scan statistic were tested by mimicking daily prospective analyses of measles data in 2005. For fully illustration of the method, the analyses of this paper were implemented at provincial level, county level, villages and towns level separately. In addition, the three dimension visualizations of results were realized in Google Earth.Result: The space-time scan statistic could timely detect the outbreaks that start locally. And the three dimension visualization could express the results more directly and vividly and seemed to be more convenient for decision maker.Conclusion: The early warning system based on space-time scan statistic and geographical information system could work efficiently.更多还原